Sunday’s divisional-round playoff game between the Patriots and Texans is proof that change is fixed within the NFL.
Take into account this: There is just one frequent starter between the Patriots’ projected beginning protection this week and the unit that was trotted out in Week 6 of the 2024 season, the final time they performed the Texans in a 41-21 loss.
The Texans scored 5 touchdowns in that recreation. None of these touchdown-scorers will play Sunday towards the Patriots. One, Stefon Diggs, might be taking part in on the Patriots.
And nobody would have guessed, watching that recreation final season — QB Drake Maye’s first career start — that the Patriots could be internet hosting the Texans in a playoff recreation simply 15 months later.
However right here we’re.
Listed here are 10 issues we’re watching in Sunday’s recreation:
• All of it begins with the Texans’ protection, particularly their move protection. The Texans have the league’s finest protection this season, based mostly on EPA (anticipated factors added) per play and EPA per move. They’re eighth in EPA per rush. The Patriots have, clearly, not confronted a greater protection all 12 months. Conversely, the Texans haven’t confronted an offense just like the Patriots since Week 1, after they confronted the Rams. That is energy on energy. The Patriots rank second in EPA per play and first in EPA per move. They’re eleventh in EPA per rush. It’s virtually wonderful how properly the 2 groups match up when the Patriots’ offense faces the Texans’ protection.
• So, who wins out? Maye has been phenomenal all season, however he wants his offensive line, which has been advantageous however not spectacular this season, to carry up towards maybe the perfect pass-rushing duo within the NFL in Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. The sport might finally be decided by how properly left deal with Will Campbell and proper deal with Morgan Moses maintain up.
• Maye can’t fumble twice and throw an interception towards the Texans, like he did final week, and hope to win. Happily for the Patriots, Maye has not been an error-repeater this season. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels stated he’s “very” assured that Maye gained’t have the identical ball safety points this week.
“We’ve talked about this all 12 months the stability of we love that he ran for 66 yards and dealt with the ball in these conditions, and transformed on third and quick and all the remainder of it. I’ve tried actually arduous to not discuss out of each side of my mouth the place I’m saying, ‘Hey, don’t do that, however do this.’ Or clap when it goes good and be upset when it doesn’t. So he is aware of the precedence,” McDaniels stated. “He is aware of the significance of taking good care of the soccer and ending each drive with some type of a kick could be best for us this week. And he understands that, so I belief him implicitly to do the best factor for our soccer group. I do know he’s ready. I do know he’s getting ready his butt off proper now, and he’ll be able to go.”
• The Patriots have simply 18 turnovers this whole season and 12 since Week 3, after they had 5 turnovers towards the Steelers. Operating backs Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson additionally need to proceed to carry onto the ball. The Patriots will doubtless attempt to set up the run early. Stevenson, particularly, has been incredible over his final 5 video games, averaging 10 yards per contact in that span of time.
• Diggs continues to be a group participant regardless of catching simply 5 passes for 59 yards over his final two video games. He faces his former group on Sunday. If the Texans double him, that may solely unlock extra targets for Maye, who’s been completely content material feeding the open receiver all season. But when the Texans deal with everybody equally, it could not be stunning if Diggs and tight finish Hunter Henry stay the favourite targets of Maye.
• If the Patriots’ offense and Texans’ protection even out, then this matchup comes right down to the Texans’ offense vs. the Patriots’ protection. So, how do they stack up? The Texans’ offense ranks 18th in EPA per play, 14th in EPA per move and twenty sixth in EPA per rush. The Patriots’ protection ranks eighth in EPA per play, ninth in EPA per move and tenth in EPA per rush. That alone leans in the direction of the Patriots having a bonus.
• The Patriots’ protection performed certainly one of its’ finest recreation of the season within the wild-card spherical of the playoffs, limiting the Chargers to only 207 yards of complete offense and three.5 yards per play. The Texans, in the meantime, are coming off an total inefficient passing recreation towards the Steelers with quarterback C.J. Stroud fumbling 5 occasions, shedding two and throwing an interception. You possibly can’t fairly rely on the Patriots’ protection to copy final week’s efficiency, however they do appear arrange properly to be taking part in their finest soccer in January.
• Defensive deal with Milton Williams and linebacker Harold Spillane returned from damage in Week 18 and within the wild-card spherical, respectively. Defensive deal with Khyiris Tonga now could be getting back from a foot damage this week towards the Chargers. The Patriots’ protection is wholesome and jelling. Can they register six sacks and a turnover? In that case, they’re successful this recreation. The Patriots might probably be taking part in with out exterior linebacker Harold Landry, who’s questionable with a knee damage. If he can’t go well with up, then Anfernee Jennings and rookie Elijah Ponder would fill in reverse starter Ok’Lavon Chaisson.
• The Patriots are getting a major increase this week with Christian Gonzalez already able to go after getting into concussion protocol in Sunday’s win over the Texans. Gonzalez progressed shortly and was a full participant in observe by Thursday. In the meantime, Texans large receiver Nico Collins is not going to play because of the concussion he suffered Monday night time towards the Steelers. That’s one other large raise for the Patriots. Gonzalez doubtless would have coated Collins. Now, the Patriots’ finest cornerback might be on the sphere defending towards a Texans offense with out its finest pass-catcher.
• Sport prediction: A low-scoring affair that the Patriots sqeak out 20-17. Maye must defend the ball. The protection must swarm and trigger detrimental performs and turnovers. And the offensive line has to be sure that Anderson and Hunter don’t overtake the sport. It gained’t be simple, however the Patriots are dwelling favorites for a motive.
