Aroldis Chapman has, sadly, had an unimaginable comeback season in 2025, I’ll admit it. At the same time as somebody who by no means has — and by no means will — need him on my crew, his dominance within the ninth this yr has really been a sight to behold. Whereas it’s morally reprehensible to actually be a “fan” of his at this level in his tumultuous MLB journey, his success has definitely been conducive to Boston’s playoff-hopeful efficiency up to now in 2025.
However as his astounding 50-batter hitless streak got here to an finish in Sacramento final week, his incredible season — which has been on account of many components, together with the luck that exists in each occasion in baseball — appeared to regress to the “identified” model of Aroldis Chapman.
There isn’t a query that he’s had a incredible yr for any nearer on the market, however much more in order a 36-year-old considered a couple of years on the decline. And whereas this alteration is due to some enhancing components (most notably his fastball location), a few of it, as will virtually at all times be the case, is because of luck. After I say luck on this state of affairs, I imply luck within the least drastic sense of the phrase potential. I imply that he has been an excellent pitcher, luck or no luck, however his numbers have been helped by a little bit of luck.
The ERA luck is minimal while you take into account how good his stat line nonetheless could be if he pitched to his 1.70 FIP versus his 1.26 ERA, however that’s nonetheless extra variant than you’d count on to see. All of that is to say that he has, indisputably, been an awesome nearer this yr, however has taken a few of the unhealthy luck he skilled final season and turned it right into a optimistic this yr.
He truly ought to have been fairly good in 2024, and wasn’t essentially unhealthy, exterior of his first percentile stroll charge. However enjoying in entrance of the Pirates (and having much less concentrated fastball location) resulted in an almost 0.80 distinction between his ERA and xERA. I assume what I’m saying is what goes round comes round, as is frequent in bigger pattern sizes basically, however not at all times noticed in follow in baseball.
And as each luck and age meet up with the veteran, his previous few outings have proven some delicate causes for concern, not solely as a result of velocity dip he’s seen in September (which has been broadly mentioned), however extra importantly due to his faltering command because it pertains to this season’s location enhancements. I’m a lot much less involved with regards to his velocity, contemplating he’s 36 and has appeared in 62 video games up to now this yr. However his leaks in fastball command, particularly as he’s needed to rely extra on his breaking pitches as a result of velocity drop, are extra of a trigger for concern as Boston heads into its most important stretch of the season.
This concern is multiplied by the truth that Justin Slaten has under no circumstances appeared just like the back-end bullpen man we’d come to know since his return from the IL, leaving the Crimson Sox with no true nearer alternative ought to issues take a flip for the more serious.
Right here’s a have a look at Chapman’s pitches thrown within the zone in opposition to the Athletics and Yankees in two of his most up-to-date outings:
Whereas the maps don’t level to a obtrusive drawback on their very own, it’s clear that Chapman’s had fastballs leaking over the center far more typically in September than he has had for the remainder of the yr. This itself isn’t an inherent drawback (as seen by the situation chart beneath, when Chapman threw a very good quantity of fastballs deeper within the zone however allowed contact on none of them), however the contact being made on these balls left over the plate is.
In his look in opposition to the Athletics, by which his dominant streak got here to an finish, batters made contact with 5 of the seven fastballs he threw, which included Lawrence Butler’s walk-off single within the ninth. Towards the Yankees a couple of days later, he as soon as once more gave up a run and a pair of hits, as batters made contact on six of ten fastballs, together with Cody Bellinger’s RBI double to just about clinch the sport for New York.
We’ve heard all yr about how Connor Wong obtained Chapman to take one other have a look at how and the place he locates his flamethrower fastball this yr, so it’s much more fascinating that these previous few blips on Chapman’s season have include Wong behind the plate.
It’s commonplace information {that a} fastball leaking over the plate is rarely a very good factor in baseball, and regardless that these situations have been few, the truth that they’re exhibiting up in a way more concentrated method than earlier than throughout a vital a part of the yr, as Boston hopes to nonetheless make it into the playoffs, is worrisome. Let’s face it: Chapman is outdated. And regardless that he’s had success for almost all of the yr, that’s unlikely to proceed if the mix of his slight dip in velocity and struggling management persists. Crimson Sox followers know all too effectively simply what he can flip into when that wild fastball loses management, whether or not which means an uptick in walks or onerous contact.
One other layer of concern involves gentle when contemplating that Chapman’s success with fastball location has largely been a brand new factor this yr, that means he has almost 15 seasons of expertise not working this manner, which is lots simpler to mechanically, or mentally, revert to than a course of you’ve been utilizing for 62 video games out of your 858 profession appearances.
