New England Patriots
The Buccaneers are led by an MVP candidate at quarterback, however their protection would possibly give the Patriots a more durable take a look at.
After dealing with among the league’s worst groups over the past month, the New England Patriots‘ six-game successful streak will face a robust take a look at on Sunday.
The Patriots head all the way down to Tampa Bay to face the Buccaneers in Week 10. Whereas Sunday’s recreation may very well be dubbed the “Brady Bowl,” it’s additionally a matchup between a pair of division leaders. The Buccaneers enter Sunday’s recreation with a 6-2 file, with their two losses coming to arguably the NFC’s two greatest groups, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Detroit Lions.
As Drake Maye and the Patriots look to maintain their win streak going, listed below are 5 issues to find out about their opponent for Sunday’s recreation.
Baker Mayfield’s been among the best quarterbacks within the NFL this 12 months. How’s he completed it?
Within the first six weeks of the season, Mayfield was seen by many as an MVP frontrunner. However after a Week 7 loss to the Lions and an underwhelming efficiency towards the New Orleans Saints in Week 8, Mayfield’s candidacy misplaced some steam.
Nonetheless, Mayfield has been among the best quarterbacks in soccer this 12 months and there’s loads of time for him to get again into the MVP race. He’s accomplished 63.9 % of his passes for 1,919 yards, 13 touchdowns, and two interceptions this 12 months to go along with a 98.1 passer ranking.
Whereas these stats may not leap off the web page, Mayfield’s needed to make do with a rotating solid at huge receiver this season, because of accidents. He’s additionally been fearless on long-distance throws, finishing 14 of 39 passes of 20-plus air yards for 511 yards, eight touchdowns, and nil interceptions.
Mayfield’s deep ball may not be as environment friendly as Maye’s (71.4 completion share), however his eight touchdowns on deep passes lead the NFL, and his 123.7 passer ranking on such throws is the sixth-best mark within the league.
Mayfield has been much less spectacular on brief and intermediate throws. His 87.9 passer ranking on brief throws ranks final among the many 22 quarterbacks who’ve thrown at the very least 100 brief passes this season, and his 74.6 passer ranking on intermediate throws ranks twenty eighth amongst quarterbacks who’ve performed at the very least 5 video games this season.
However these shorter throw stats may not matter as a lot if Mayfield goes to proceed to push the ball downfield. He’s third in aggressive share (19.3) this season and has the second-longest completion this 12 months when it comes to air yards (61.1), per Subsequent Gen Stats.
Tampa Bay may need the Offensive Rookie of the Yr.
Much like Mayfield, Emeka Egbuka was thought-about an early favourite for Offensive Rookie of the Yr earlier than a quiet previous few weeks. However the Buccaneers’ huge receiver is actually nonetheless within the hunt for the award.
Egbuka has 34 receptions for 562 yards and 5 touchdowns this season. Earlier than struggling a hamstring harm within the Buccaneers’ Week 6 win over the 49ers, Egbuka was monitoring to have an all-time rookie season at huge receiver. He turned the fourth receiver in NFL historical past to have 20-plus catches, 400-plus yards, and 5 touchdowns by way of the primary 5 video games of his profession, whereas additionally being on tempo to set the rookie file for receiving yards.
The rookie solely has 9 catches over the Buccaneers’ final 5 video games, failing to achieve the top zone. The bye week may need been what Egbuka wanted, although, permitting him some further time to recuperate from the aforementioned hamstring harm.
If Egbuka is near 100%, anticipate Mayfield to focus on him deep. The duo have arguably been one of the best deep ball connection within the league this 12 months, with Egbuka recording eight receptions for 291 yards and 4 touchdowns on deep passes this 12 months. These are the second-most yards and touchdowns by a receiver on such performs in 2025.
Regardless of these eye-catching stats, Egbuka might discover it tough to get open towards a Patriots secondary that performs extra man protection than all however two of Tampa Bay’s opponents this season, per Sharp Soccer Evaluation. By way of eight video games, Egbuka has solely managed three receptions towards man protection, per Professional Soccer Focus.
The Buccaneers are coping with some related accidents to the Patriots.
Egbuka’s struggles towards man protection might come into play on Sunday contemplating the variety of accidents the Buccaneers are coping with.
Similar to the Patriots, the Buccaneers may also be with out their prime working again, as Bucky Irving is out with foot and shoulder accidents. Rachaad White has been serviceable however unspectacular within the beginning function with Irving out, speeding for 179 yards on simply 3.3 yards per carry within the final 4 video games.
At receiver, the Buccaneers may also be with out Chris Godwin once more on account of a fibula harm. That’s on prime of Mike Evans’s absence, who suffered a collarbone harm in Week 7 that’s anticipated to maintain him out for almost the remainder of the common season.
With Godwin and Evans out, Sterling Shephard and Tez Johnson will seemingly get expanded roles at receiver once more. Shephard has 14 receptions for 108 yards and a landing over the past 4 video games, whereas Johnson has 14 receptions for 205 yards and two touchdowns over that very same stretch.
They’ve just a few defensive standouts as they’ve one of many league’s higher defenses.
Though Mayfield and the Buccaneers’ offense have obtained all the thrill this season, their protection is perhaps the stronger unit.
Whereas the Buccaneers aren’t within the prime 10 in defensive yards or scoring, they’re seventh in defensive DVOA, seventh in defensive passing DVOA, and fifth in rush protection DVOA.
They’ve just a few gamers to thank for that. Defensive sort out Vita Vea hasn’t essentially put up super numbers (18 whole tackles, 2.5 sacks), however he’s a pressure and constantly attracts double groups. That’s allowed gamers like edge rusher YaYa Diaby to get free. Diaby ranks within the prime 11 at his place in cross rush and run cease win price, recording 24 tackles and 4 sacks this 12 months.
On the again finish, cornerback Jamel Dean is having an All-Professional-worthy season. He’s allowed simply 15 receptions on 31 targets for 204 yards and nil touchdowns this season, per PFF, to go along with three interceptions.
Antoine Winfield Jr. has remained among the best safeties within the league, logging 41 whole tackles, an interception, and a pressured fumble. He’s had assist from second-year security Tykee Smith to assist solidify the again finish of the Buccaneers’ protection this 12 months, with Smith changing into among the best tackling safeties (66 whole tackles, fourth-most at place) within the league.
The Buccaneers are coming off a bye, and it would give the Patriots a bonus.
For many coaches, coming off the bye week means that you can reset and get an early benefit in your subsequent opponent. However, for no matter purpose, Todd Bowles hasn’t gotten the identical enhance many different coaches have following the bye week.
Bowles is 2-5 as a head coach in his crew’s video games following the bye week. Final 12 months was Bowles’s first win in a recreation following the bye as Buccaneers coach, crushing a listless Giants crew.
In his first two years as Buccaneers coach, Bowles had a pair of fairly uninspiring losses following the bye week. They misplaced at dwelling to the Lions, 20-6, following their bye week in 2023. They had been upset by the Browns following their bye week in 2022, with Tom Brady shedding to Jacoby Brissett.
Bowles’s different three losses coming off the bye week got here when he was the pinnacle coach of the Jets, getting a win off the bye week in his first 12 months as New York’s head coach.
For these curious, Mike Vrabel is 6-0 in video games following the bye week. Benefit: Patriots.
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