Welcome again to the 2025-26 version of Smash or Pass, wherein we study potential free agent and commerce targets to find out whether or not the Crimson Sox ought to pursue them and what it might take to land them. At the moment we take a look at a fading star who has been linked to the Sox this offseason.
Who’s he and the place does he play?
He’s 34-year-old catcher J.T. Realmuto, of Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins fame. Maybe you missed this one as soon as the information of the Sonny Grey deal got here throughout the wire, however the Crimson Sox have been linked to a different (former) member of the Nationwide League on Tuesday. Ken “Bowtie Boy” Rosenthal and Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic reported word from their #sources…
…that Realmuto has caught the eye of Boston’s entrance workplace within the early days of free company. The Curiosity Kings strike once more.
I dunno about you, expensive reader, however this report caught me a bit off guard! The quote in T’s tweet above is correct: I don’t assume anybody was pinning the place of catcher as a high precedence for the Sox this winter. Carlos Narvaez’s first yr behind the dish was spectacular as he established himself as one of many recreation’s high defensive backstops whereas flashing some pop every so often. Connor Wong was……….properly, he was a participant on the workforce, however I personally felt OK in regards to the place shifting ahead—not less than almost about who can be beginning at catcher most of the time.
Nonetheless, it’s robust to argue with the deserves of Realmuto’s resume.
Didn’t I simply point out his resu….y’know what, no matter. Sure, he’s stable.
Identified for his eager potential to get aboard and a few respectable pop on offense in his prime alongside together with his potential to mow runners down on protection, J.T. is a three-time All-Star with a pair of each Gold Gloves and Silver Sluggers. Even whereas properly into his 30’s, he boasts elite pop occasions yr in and yr out when making an attempt to hose runners down (he has by no means been inside worse than the ninety fifth [95th] {!!!!!!!!} percentile in that metric since monitoring on Savant started in 2015, which was his first full season within the majors) and he has constantly ranked throughout the league’s high tiers of catchers in the case of Caught Stealing Over Common (he was simply within the, once more, ninety fifth percentile there in 2025).
He’s been a reasonably unhealthy framer in recent times (simply the 4th percentile there this previous years), however perhaps the ABS system will assist mitigate these issues. His blocking has additionally taken a nosedive over the previous two seasons, as he’s been ranked in no higher than the twentieth percentile there as of late. Nothing any rule adjustments can do on that entrance for him, sadly.
Tl;dr, simply give me his 2025 stats.
134 G, 129 H, 12 HR, 26 2B, 23.5% strikeout price, 6.4% stroll price, .257/.315/.384, 91 OPS+, 2.5 bWAR
Present me a cool spotlight.
For the serious-minded of us: his cycle effort just a few years again. For the meme-centric thinker, properly, I’m positive you already know what’s coming.
Consider a contract alongside the strains of two years at $30 million (as MLB Trade Rumors projected) or three years at $45 million (as Bowtie Boy’s publication predicted). So, $15M AAV or so is an efficient leaping off level.
Fairly easy and plain move from me.
It’s not that I feel Realmuto’s a foul participant (though I’ve my issues—some outlined already, some to come back). He’s not unhealthy. A man with a 2.5 bWAR in 2025 and almost 40 bWAR over the course of a few decade ain’t sometimes the signal of a foul participant.
But to me, this can be a basic occasion of a sq. peg who can be requested to fill in a spherical gap. To reiterate: catcher shouldn’t be seen as a precedence this winter. Might we enhance the state of affairs behind Narv? Yeah, we may. However doing so by inking Realmuto to a deal can be overkill. I feel there are different avenues to provide you that backup choice that wouldn’t end in that a lot of a monetary dedication. I need to add my compulsory “the Crimson Sox shouldn’t be penny pinchers” remark right here, however the truth is that there are different enhancements to be made on the roster—including extra to the rotation’s ceiling even within the wake of the Grey commerce, a nook infield bat or a legitimately horrifying hitter to fit in at DH, no matter floats your boat—that the hassle of flexing our monetary would possibly can be higher suited to.
However even when cash was no object, I don’t assume that Realmuto must be the apple of our eye right here, of us. I already outlined among the defensive shortcomings—shortcomings which I can’t think about will considerably enhance after he turns 35 in March. I may stay with a few of these faults in his recreation if the bat was doing sufficient speaking, however I additionally don’t assume that’s going to get higher anytime quickly.
After his bat velocity was across the seventieth percentile in 2023 and 2024, J.T.‘s rating in that metric went right down to the forty seventh percentile in 2025. His .316 xwOBA and eight.8% barrel price final yr have been his worst on a percentile foundation for the reason that 2016 season, whereas his .405 anticipated slug was his worst in that regard since 2021. His 91 OPS+ in ‘25 was his profession worst over the course of a full season. His OBP has dropped every year, save for 2022, for the reason that COVID-shortened season. His house run tally, slugging proportion, and OPS have all dropped every year following that ‘22 marketing campaign.
Take note: these figures have been all whereas he was taking part in half of his video games on the Little League sandbox that’s Residents Financial institution Park in Philly, whereas he had a usually proficient lineup (a pennant-winning lineup at that) surrounding him.
Certain, Realmuto would possibly be capable of take some reps over at first base when you really feel so inclined. However then once more: doesn’t that take among the chew out of what must be one in all your finest offensive positions within the lineup? And if he indicators for about $15 million per yr, aren’t you able the place you nearly need to be beginning him behind the plate nearly all of the time? Each of these eventualities don’t curiosity me, frankly.
I may grant you the concept that Realmuto could have a bit left within the tank. I don’t assume he’s mud. Nevertheless it’s the mistaken participant for the mistaken workforce on the mistaken time and on the mistaken value. This doesn’t make a ton of sense to me, frankly. I’m positive J.T. will get a pleasant pay day; I simply extremely doubt that it’s going to include a signature from John Henry, nor do I feel it ought to.
Now cease procrastinating on-line and get happening that vacation cookin’, ya turkey.
