Welcome again to the 2025-26 version of Smash or Pass, through which we study potential free agent and commerce targets to find out whether or not the Purple Sox ought to pursue them and what it could take to land them. Immediately, we’re having a look a participant who was closely linked to the Sox final yr and appears prone to be traded, provided that the Cardinals are in the course of a rebuild with everybody’s favourite [cough] former CFO Chaim Bloom on the helm.
Who’s he and the place does he come from?
Nolan Arenado is a veteran third-baseman identified for his superb protection (he has 10 Gold Gloves thus far). He was on the Rockies from 2013-2020 earlier than being traded to the Cardinals in 2021, the place he has since remained, till very probably this offseason. Buying and selling for him would seemingly price some minor prospects and cash for the Cardinals to make use of of their rebuild. Craig hasn’t been stingy on giving freely prospects (ie the Crochet commerce), however he hasn’t been liberally tossing them to different groups both. Purple Sox pitching prospects are seemingly off the desk in commerce talks, so if that’s what the Cardinals need, they’re seemingly not going to get them in change for Arenado.
Behold the nuance-less 2025 Savant web page for Arenado (or most of it):
This isn’t his entire Savant web page, however we will say, with certainty, that he didn’t have an incredible 2025 season. His strikeout and whiff charges have been low, which was good, however he wasn’t constantly getting hits, clutch or in any other case. His fielding was good, however not stellar—he didn’t win a Gold Glove this yr. He was an all-star as not too long ago as 2023, however final yr’s stats paint the image of a vet on the decline. He might all the time have a greater season this coming yr, barring accidents.
Nonetheless, the Cardinals wish to commerce an Arenado who’s removed from his skilled peak. Groups will need him, however there could also be a stalemate with the asks. How a lot are Arenado’s skills actually price, at this level? How a lot are groups keen to sacrifice?
Why would he be a great match for the Purple Sox?
One other vet within the clubhouse is all the time a great factor, particularly for the Sox’s very younger core, plus he’s a great choice for third base ought to Alex Bregman not return. A good choice at third base, too, given his famend defensive abilities. Plus, we’d like fewer gamers that strike out on a regular basis, and clearly Arenado’s Ok-rate is much and away higher than the present Purple Sox roster’s as an entire. He’d be cheaper than a Bregman resigning as properly.
Why wouldn’t he be a great match for the Purple Sox?
As said, he’s a vet on the decline. The present Sox lineup lacks pop—a key factor the FO wants to repair, they usually comprehend it—and Arenado’s unlikely so as to add actual offensive energy, regardless that Fenway is so homer-friendly for righties who can pull the ball. That’s as a result of his residence run numbers have nosedived lately as he’s struggled to hit the ball exhausting, dropping from 30 in 2022 to 26, then 16 and 12 final yr. So he’s not at peak type, sadly. An it’s not just like the Purple Sox actually need prioritize defensive on the left facet of the infeild both, with Mayer in a position to play third base if wanted.
As for the entire Bregman scenario, we all know that Bregman likes enjoying in Boston and that he did properly when he wasn’t damage, save for the previous few weeks of the season. We additionally know that he has some pop that Arenado might lack. Plus, Arenado wouldn’t even be that less expensive than Bregman, provided that the Sox would doubtlessly should shoulder the vast majority of the $81 million ($50 million of which is deferred) that stay on the ultimate two years of his contract. Bregman had a vital impression on the rookies and on the workforce as an entire this previous season. It could behoove the clubhouse to have him again so his presence can proceed to assist the workforce.
Present me a cool spotlight:
This video’s enjoyable, and advertises Arenado’s protection properly. Whichever groups lands him will probably be getting this until Arenado’s injured or unbelievably washed, and whereas his offense is down, Arenado actually isn’t washed but.
After not-so-careful-consideration, it’s a PASS from me. He would’ve been an incredible asset to choose up years in the past had Devers not been within the image, however Devers was there, and so the workforce didn’t **want** him then, and actually the Sox don’t want him now. The workforce wants offense greater than something, which sadly I don’t assume Arenado can present. On condition that the Sox simply made a commerce with the Cardinals that didn’t contain Arenado, I don’t see them doing so once more until issues get determined for some motive, so I imagine the Entrance Workplace agrees with me on this one, and that’s a great factor.
Arenado, as a participant, is an efficient pickup for some groups. However Arenado, for the wants of the Purple Sox, wouldn’t repair the workforce’s extra urgent issues, and cash and prospects may very well be for higher use. I imagine resigning Bregman will show extra fruitful in the long term, for the workforce and for the group as an entire.
