How Patriots’ odds to win AFC East, get No. 1 seed can improve in Week 14

The Patriots is likely to be off this weekend, however what occurs throughout their bye week might play a task in figuring out their playoff path.

At 11-2, New England sits in pole place for the AFC East title and the No. 1 seed within the AFC. The Patriots are hoping to fend off the 8-4 Payments within the AFC East race, whereas the 10-2 Broncos are their prime competitor for first place within the AFC.

So, let’s check out how the Patriots’ playoff image might be impacted in Week 14 and what has to occur with the intention to be sure that the AFC playoffs run by Foxborough.

How Patriots’ odds to win AFC East can enhance in Week 14

The Patriots already sit in a great spot to win the AFC East coming into Sunday’s slate. It doesn’t matter what occurs within the Payments’ matchup in opposition to the Bengals on Sunday, the Patriots will clinch the AFC East for the primary time in six years in the event that they beat the Payments in Week 15.

However a Payments loss to the Bengals would basically give Buffalo zero margin for error to steal the division. In that situation, the Patriots would have a 96 p.c probability to win the division, per The Athletic‘s Playoff Simulator. The simulator already provides the Patriots a 92 p.c probability to win the division, with a Payments win on Sunday solely lowering New England’s odds to take the AFC East to 88 p.c.

How Patriots’ odds to get AFC’s No. 1 seed can enhance in Week 14

The Colts’ sudden two-game shedding streak has basically turned the battle for home-field benefit within the AFC right into a two-team race between the Patriots and Broncos.

The best approach for the Patriots’ odds to get the highest seed in Week 14 can be for the Broncos to lose. Nonetheless, the Broncos are 7.5-point favorites in opposition to the Raiders this weekend in Las Vegas. If two-win Las Vegas is in some way capable of pull off the upset, New England’s possibilities of getting the No. 1 seed within the AFC climb to 74 p.c, per The Athletic‘s Playoff Simulator.

Getting into Week 14, the Patriots’ odds to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed sit at 58 p.c, in accordance with The Athletic. So, a Broncos loss would make a distinction, giving the Patriots a one-game benefit. It might additionally give New England the sting within the first tiebreaker as each groups enter Week 14 with the identical file in opposition to AFC opponents (6-2).

If the Broncos win on Sunday, the Patriots’ possibilities to get the No. 1 seed within the AFC drop to 52 p.c, in accordance with The Athletic.

Wanting past the Broncos, the Colts-Jaguars sport is likely to be of some significance for the Patriots’ possibilities for the No. 1 seed. Each of these groups are 8-4 as they battle for first place within the AFC South, however an Indianapolis win would barely assist New England’s odds (59 p.c) to get the No. 1 seed within the AFC greater than a Jacksonville win (57 p.c).

The reasoning for the slight odds distinction is likely to be because of the Colts’ tougher power of schedule and the Jaguars-Broncos Week 16 matchup. If the Colts beat the Jaguars on Sunday, and the Jaguars defeat the Broncos in Week 16, the Patriots’ odds to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed enhance to 73 p.c, per The Athletic. That’s earlier than considering the results of another matchup.