Welcome again to the 2025-26 version of Smash or Pass, during which we study potential free agent and commerce targets to find out whether or not the Purple Sox ought to pursue them and what it might take to land them. Subsequent up isone of the perfect pitchers in Japan’s NPB, who’s on his strategy to North America.
Who’s he and the place does he come from?
Tatsuya Imai is a 27-year-old beginning pitcher who has spent eight seasons with the Seibu Lions of the NPB (Japan). He was posted by the Lions on November nineteenth and has a deadline of January 2nd to signal with a Main League Baseball staff.
Imai appears prone to be essentially the most impactful participant who has been posted from Japan getting into 2026, though Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto, a pair of nook infielders, might make their case as properly.
Primarily that includes a fastball, slider, and changeup, Imai has a six-pitch combine in complete. He has a three-quarters arm slot, with a fastball sitting at 95 and touching 99 mph. Right here’s a extra thorough breakdown from MLB.com:
Jim Allen, who has coated Japanese baseball for a very long time, spoke about Imai just lately. Allen feels that Imai has “all of the instruments” to reach MLB, and confirmed “a gentle development sample, bettering in each class yr after yr.”
Imai threw eight no-hit innings in an April begin, which was completed off for a mixed no-hitter. In June, he struck out 17 batters in a whole recreation during which he walked none.
Imai didn’t win the Eiji Sawamura Award, which is the Cy Younger equal within the NPB. That went to Hiromi Itoh, who had a 2.52 ERA (to Imai’s 1.92), however Itoh began three extra video games and thus had a powerful edge in Wins, IP, and Ks.
My favourite tidbit when trying on the Sawamura Award is that if the voters don’t assume anybody is worthy of the award, they simply … don’t hand it out in any respect, which occurred final yr.
Baseball Reference
“Yamamoto’s gone? None of you get it, then. You all suck.”
TLDR: simply give me his 2025 stats.
24 GS, 163 2/3 IP, 10-5 W-L, 1.92 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 45 BB, 172 Ok, 5 CG, 3 SHO.
Why would he be an excellent match on the Purple Sox?
If you happen to’ve been keen on Joe Ryan over the previous six months as a match on the Purple Sox, then you need to in all probability even be keen on Tatsuya Imai. As Eno Sarris shows here, Imai and Ryan’s fastball launch and form are nearly equivalent:
“Imai’s fastball is a close to match for Joe Ryan’s fastball. Even if you happen to lump in all 4 fastballs that comp properly to Imai’s fastball, the group’s four-seamers have been above-average by Stuff+, whiff charges, batting common and slugging when put in opposition to league-average fastballs. Most certainly, Imai’s low-slot fastball with stunning journey will play properly excessive within the zone and be an asset to him in MLB.”
He additionally appears to be extraordinarily aggressive and believes in himself. Imai doesn’t need to leap on with any of the Japanese gamers which have come over earlier than him; he simply needs to beat them, he informed outdated pal Daisuke Matsuzaka on the show Hodo Station:
“In fact, I’d take pleasure in taking part in alongside Ohtani, Yamamoto, and Sasaki. However profitable in opposition to a staff like that and turning into a world champion can be essentially the most priceless factor in my life. If something, I’d slightly take them down.”
After among the hatred coming from the Sox employees concerning the Yankees, which Matt Gross outlined final week, it feels like he’d match proper in with this group!
Why wouldn’t he be an excellent match on the Purple Sox?
He isn’t low-cost, and the Purple Sox have already added a pitcher in Sonny Grey for $21M this offseason, which is within the vary that Imai will seemingly get. Kylie McDaniel projects Imai to get six years and $157M, which features a $22+M posting payment to the Seibu Lions. That may be a $26.2M AAV.
It’s additionally laborious to say what the ultimate roster goes to seem like. Let’s say that Brayan Bello is moved as a part of a commerce for hitting. In that case, Imai might be signed as your #2 SP and type a killer top-three with Crochet and Grey earlier than the plethora of choices preventing for the final two spots. However as at the moment constituted, it’s a rotation that already feels crowded, and there’s quite a lot of focus that’s wanted on hitting to make this a whole staff in 2026.
Present me a cool spotlight.
17 Ks and no walks in a whole recreation shutout this previous June. Full with a sword within the sheath celebration after one of many strikeouts. All of the nastiness on show in a single clip.
If I felt that the Purple Sox had the kind of payroll that might add two influence hitters, a quantity two starter, and nonetheless add to the bullpen, then Imai is perhaps the perfect arm remaining available on the market that the staff might add. Sadly, I don’t think they’ll spend like that except they will discover methods so as to add influence bats on a budget. After including Sonny Grey and Johan Oviedo, the beginning pitcher choices are getting cramped within the Sox system, and it’s laborious to see one other $25M+ AAV pitcher being added to the combination. It’s a smash on the expertise, however a Cross on the match.
