FOXBORO — Win and in.
It’s that easy.
If the Patriots beat the Ravens tonight, they’ll clinch a postseason berth for the primary time in 4 years.
Have been it not for a loss final weekend versus Buffalo, the Pats (11-3) would already be sporting the division crown. Alas, the AFC East title continues to be inside attain — offered they don’t falter down the stretch.
Beginning in Baltimore, Drake Maye and Co. will battle a Ravens crew combating for its playoff life. Baltimore (7-7) shut out the Bengals 24-0 final week, because of a dominant defensive effort that included a pick-six. The Ravens might use a throwback efficiency from Lamar Jackson, who has struggled most of this season, however appeared extra like himself at Cincinnati.
As for the Patriots, Maye might want to carry the load for a depleted protection reeling from ill-timed accidents and a poor efficiency final Sunday versus the Payments. Can Maye win a shoot-out in Allure Metropolis?
Right here’s what to observe for on Sunday Night time Soccer:
When Patriots run
TreVeyon Henderson led a breakout efficiency final week, when the Pats piled up a season-high 246 dashing yards towards Buffalo. Henderson scored two lengthy touchdowns executing a recreation plan designed to check the sides. On Sunday, hitting dwelling runs on the surface gained’t be really easy.
The Ravens are permitting the second-lowest yards per carry towards outdoors runs within the NFL, and their finest run defenders may stay inside. Simply ask Mike Vrabel.
“Groups aren’t actually operating the ball on them, so that they’re forcing loads of these video games to be one-dimensional. Actually good mixture of veteran gamers and a few youth, actually good inside gamers. I imply, they’re simply huge, (defensive tackles Travis) Jones and (John) Jenkins,” Vrabel mentioned this week. “And clearly they’ll rotate different guys via there, however it begins with these two.”
Between Henderson’s velocity and Rhamondre Stevenson’s return to well being, the Pats ought to be capable of successfully alternate each backs to maintain them contemporary. Stevenson averaged 8.3 yards per carry towards the Payments, a season excessive. And don’t neglect Maye, who scored two dashing touchdowns early towards the Payments.
When Patriots go
Will Maye have time to throw?
If that’s the case, he ought to be capable of go lengthy versus a Baltimore protection with suspect deep-ball protection and one of many decrease sack charges within the league. Maye can also be the second-highest graded passer on performs that develop longer than 2.5 seconds at Professional Soccer Focus. That mentioned, defending Maye has been a difficulty most of this season, and the Ravens boast one of many higher blitz packages within the league. Can the Pats keep out of third-and-long?
A last query: what about Stefon Diggs? The Patriots’ supposed No. 1 receiver hasn’t cracked 50% of their offensive snaps or 30 receiving yards in three straight video games. He had been their strolling reply to beating man protection — an issue in current weeks — but has been efficiently neutralized recently. If not Diggs, Maye will want Kayshon Boutte, DeMario Douglas, Mack Hollins or maybe Henderson to step up towards 1-on-1 protection.
When Ravens run
All eyes on the King.
Derrick Henry is once more powering one of many NFL’s finest dashing assaults, operating for 1,125 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. He’s a significant risk to a crumbling Patriots run protection that’s permitting conversions on 86% of short-yardage performs and struggling to get off blocks.
“He’s a really distinctive participant,” Vrabel mentioned this week. “Nice velocity, nice energy, power. He’s only a completely different physique kind than what anyone would go towards, and so it’s distinctive in that regard. They do a really good job with their scheme, completely different personnel teams, completely different run plan and types of run, and completely different run actions. So once more, we all know what he’s about: construct velocity and stiff arm and all that different stuff.”
With inside linebacker and captain Robert Spillane (ankle) nonetheless out, the impetus will fall on backup Jack Gibbens and Christian Elliss to deliver Henry down on first contact. Anticipate the Patriots to bulk up with personnel packages that characteristic simply 4 defensive backs, and generally three, to plug the holes of their entrance with further defensive linemen and linebackers. And don’t neglect about Ravens fullback Patrick Ricard, one other weapon close to the purpose line.
When Ravens go
If there was ever per week for Christian Gonzalez to shadow an opponent’s No. 1 receiver, that is it.
Boston Faculty product Zay Flowers leads all Ravens pass-catchers by no less than 40 targets, 30 catches and 600 receiving yards. He’s harmful quick and deep, contained in the slot and out huge. If Marcus Jones and/or Carlton Davis are out (each are questionable), the Patriots shouldn’t belief their reserve cornerbacks to cowl Flowers of their most popular man-to-man protection, or possibly zone.
It could be an enormous assist if Jackson continues to throw with scattershot accuracy. He’s accomplished lower than 64% of his go this yr in a big-play passing assault that counts on opponents loading the field towards their run recreation, one thing the Patriots will probably be compelled to do. The Pats’ go should get dwelling usually sufficient, even whereas it struggles within the absence of defensive sort out Milton Williams. Inside operating mate Christian Barmore can have alternatives to push across the Ravens’ offensive guards, each weak spots of their go safety.
One other matchup to observe: trusty tight finish Mark Andrews. Even in a down yr statistically, Andrews is a harmful red-zone goal for Baltimore. And at this level, no crew is aware of the price of porous red-zone protection higher than the Patriots.
Sport choose
Ravens 27, Patriots 24
