Welcome to the Friday 5!
Each week in the course of the NFL common season, I’ll drop 5 Patriots-related ideas on Friday to recap the week that was in Foxboro and stay up for kickoff.
Prepared, set, soccer.
1. Want the No. 1 seed?
This isn’t about accidents.
Not fully, anyway.
The Patriots did checklist 14 gamers on their preliminary damage report Wednesday, however Milton Williams seems on observe to return Sunday, and Will Campbell ought to return in time for the playoffs. The actual fact Robert Spillane hasn’t been positioned on injured reserve suggests he might — if not ought to — return then, too.
That is in regards to the path.
The Patriots’ surest path to the Tremendous Bowl is the shortest path, one which doesn’t stray from Foxboro till it’s time to fly to San Francisco for the Huge Sport. To remain dwelling, the Pats want the No. 1 seed, which might require profitable out. Greater than staying dwelling, the actual good thing about the No. 1 seed is skipping a possible coin-flip sport within the Wild Card spherical versus Buffalo, Houston or the Chargers. Perhaps even Jacksonville.
Frankly, the opponent doesn’t matter a lot due to how packed the convention is now, the place you could possibly make a case for 3 or 4 groups being finest within the AFC (I, for the report, would take the Patriots when wholesome). All AFC playoff video games, from the Wild Card spherical to the convention championship, needs to be previewed by small level spreads as a result of the three finest groups within the convention rank fifth, sixth and eighth by the opponent-and-situation-adjusted metric DVOA. Even by level differential, the margins are skinny, with the Pats (+110) holding slim leads over the Payments (+90), Texans (+97), Jaguars (+98) and Broncos (+67).
Regardless of your metric, there is no such thing as a clear chief within the AFC. Bear in mind: the Pats had been 1.5-point underdogs at dwelling versus the Payments just some weeks in the past, and Vegas was proper.
By clinching the No. 1 seed and skipping the Wild Card spherical, the Patriots would statistically *double* their probabilities of making the Tremendous Bowl, going from 12.5% to 25%, assuming their odds of profitable every spherical are roughly 50/50. Throughout that point, the Patriots can even relaxation up, return injured starters and shut any expertise hole they could face versus Denver or Houston.
Relaxation and a free move really feel like near must-haves for a Tremendous Bowl run, as a result of it’s exhausting to ascertain any AFC crew profitable three straight playoff video games, even the Patriots (they’re 2-2 towards groups presently within the playoff image). Backside line: it’s a crowded race. Greatest to get a head begin.
2. Arms like glue
For the primary time in years, the Patriots’ huge receivers are usually not a legal responsibility.
Stefon Diggs is on the precipice of one other 1,000-yard season, whereas Mack Hollins, at age 32, has a profession 12 months inside attain and Kayshon Boutte and DeMario Douglas have leveled up. Collectively, in addition they share a sort of boring superpower: sticky, sticky fingers.
The Patriots personal the second-lowest drop charge within the NFL at 2.6%, they usually’re tied for the second-fewest complete drops within the league at 12. Diggs is their solely receiver with multiple drop this season, whereas Hollins has zero. The Pats have maximized their passing sport thanks principally to Maye’s 12 months 2 breakout, however his receivers are additionally wringing out every thing they will from their expertise.
In actual fact, the Patriot with essentially the most drops this season isn’t even a receiver. It’s Hunter Henry, who has 4.
3. 2026 workers adjustments
Whether or not a crew wins the Tremendous Bowl or fires its head coach midseason, offseason workers turnover is inevitable. The Patriots needs to be no completely different.
Vrabel is all however assured to alter coaches someplace on his workers or be compelled to discover a substitute. Who may or not it’s?
Speculating right here, how about Thomas Brown? The Patriots’ first-ever passing sport coordinator and tight ends coach has interviewed for head-coaching jobs earlier than and labored twice as an NFL offensive coordinator. Contemplating the Patriots’ booming move offense, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Brown — who’s on his fourth crew in as a few years and hasn’t labored for an NFL crew or school program for longer than three years — fly the nest.
Speculating once more, particular groups coordinator Jeremy Springer could also be a reputation to thought-about. The Patriots’ particular groups rank 18th by DVOA, down from earlier within the season, and Springer was a uncommon holdover from the earlier regime. Vrabel additionally promoted Springer’s assistant, Tom Quinn, to the pinnacle job in Tennessee after firing his particular groups coordinator in Dec. 2023.
Vrabel might decide streamline his offensive line room the place three coaches — Doug Marrone, Jason Houghtaling and Robert Kugler — lead that room. Throughout the league, three is an unusually excessive variety of coaches concerned in a single O-line room.
4. ‘You guys can chortle’
Again within the spring, Vrabel tried to loosen up gamers by telling them in a crew assembly to not take themselves too significantly.
The story goes that he had seen gamers tense up round him within the crew cafeteria, and wished them to know the brand new program, like him, can be robust and demanding, however enable for mild moments. For essentially the most half, Vrabel’s message appears to have reached gamers throughout a 12-3 season when lots of them have lauded the crew’s new tradition.
Nonetheless, in keeping with Drake Maye, it’s one thing Vrabel continues to emphasise as, with every passing week, the stakes rise for a crew with critical aspirations within the playoffs..
“Yeah, it nonetheless occurs in crew conferences. (Vrabel) type of makes use of some sarcasm and no one actually laughs, and he goes, ‘It’s humorous. It’s OK. You guys can chortle,’” Maye mentioned this week. “So yeah, I feel it’s a tense feeling, however I feel the extra you bought to know him and noticed him coach, you type of misplaced it and simply respect him for wanting to teach us exhausting and eager to win. That’s what he’s doing on daily basis on this constructing.
“He’s carrying the identical moxie and swagger, and he’s not going to alter. We love that about Coach. We all know he’s going to teach us exhausting, however we all know he needs the very best for us, and that’s what’s been wanted.”
5. Media award
Patriots heart Garrett Bradbury was honored with the 2025 Ron Hobson Good Man award this week, an annual custom carried on by native reporters to focus on a participant who fulfills his media obligations with class and professionalism.
Bradbury is amongst a number of new veterans who’ve helped rebuild the crew’s tradition, and been candid in interviews whereas nonetheless defending the crew. One instance got here minutes after he accepted the award, and was requested if he believed a 12-3 begin to the season would have been doable when he signed as a free agent again in March.
“No. No. It’s been an superior 12 months,” Bradbury mentioned, earlier than later including: “You don’t need to forecast something, however we’ve had plenty of enjoyable.”
Hunter Henry, Stefon Diggs, Marcus Jones and Jaylinn Hawkins had been the opposite high vote-getters this 12 months.
