21 stats to know for Sunday’s Patriots-Broncos AFC Championship matchup

We all know what the Patriots’ and Broncos’ strengths are forward of Sunday’s AFC Championship Recreation.

For New England, quarterback Drake Maye has put up a season worthy of an MVP because the Patriots have a number of key contributors on either side of the ball this postseason. For Denver, its protection has been among the many finest within the league, rating second in yards allowed and first in sacks this season.

However let’s take an additional take a look at the stats to find out the place every staff might need a selected benefit in Sunday’s matchup. Listed below are 21 stats to know that might decide the ultimate consequence of the AFC title sport.

132.7: Drake Maye’s 132.7 passer score on deep passes (throws the place the ball traveled no less than 20 yards down the sector) was the perfect mark within the common season, per Professional Soccer Focus. That quantity has dipped to 77.1 within the postseason, though Maye’s Hail Mary interception towards the Texans hurts that quantity.

20.3: Denver has the bottom completion proportion towards deep balls this season, with opposing quarterbacks finishing 20.3 % of passes, per Subsequent Gen Stats. Josh Allen didn’t full a single considered one of his 9 deep throws final week and threw two interceptions on such passes. So, Sunday’s sport is a power towards power in that regard.

79.4: The Broncos’ 79.4 passer score allowed this season was additionally the fifth-best mark within the league. The one two defenses the Patriots have performed with a greater mark had been the Chargers and Texans. Maye had a 93.4 passer score over these two video games.

2: Broncos star cornerback and reigning Defensive Participant of the 12 months Patrick Surtain II has allowed simply two touchdowns this 12 months, per Professional Soccer Focus. So, as Surtain covers the boundary, that may very well be robust information for Patriots vast receiver Kayshon Boutte.

7: However Maye could be sensible to select on Broncos beginning cornerback Riley Moss. Moss has allowed seven touchdowns this season, which is tied for the eighth-most within the league, in accordance with PFF.

41.8: The Broncos’ 41.8 % strain price is the third-best mark in soccer. The one staff the Patriots have confronted with a greater strain price was the Texans, who sacked Maye 5 occasions final week.

13.7: Patriots rookie left sort out Will Campbell has been a giant motive for the variety of sacks allowed. His 13.7 strain price allowed this postseason is the worst mark on the Patriots, in accordance with Subsequent Gen Stats. He’s additionally allowed a team-high 10 pressures and 4 sacks within the playoffs.

24: There are a variety of stats that present simply how nicely Broncos edge rusher Nik Bonitto has performed this season as he completed fifth within the league with 14 sacks. However his 24 % cross rush win price was the second-best mark within the league.

4.6: If there’s a weak spot with this Broncos’ protection, it’s with their potential to cease the run. They’ve allowed 4.6 yards per carry over their final eight video games, which might’ve been tied for the seventh-worst mark in soccer this season.

5.4: Will the Patriots have the ability to benefit from the Broncos’ relative struggles towards the run as of late? Effectively, they’ve run the ball for five.4 yards per carry within the six video games for the reason that bye, which is promising. Though two of these video games had been towards the Jets and Dolphins.

40: If the Patriots wish to decelerate Jarrett Stidham, the important thing could be to get strain on him. Stidham has a 40 % completion proportion in his profession when he’s been pressured. He additionally posted a 76.9 passer score towards strain in two begins with the Broncos in 2023, and had a 64.5 passer score towards strain when he was with the Raiders in 2022, per PFF. For reference, Maye had a 123 passer score towards strain this season.

18.7: Not solely has Stidham been dangerous at throwing the ball towards strain, however he’s additionally taken a great variety of sacks towards strain in his profession. He was sacked 14 occasions in 75 dropbacks towards strain between his appearances within the 2022 and 2023 seasons. That offers Stidham an 18.7 strain price, which might’ve been the second-worst mark amongst quarterbacks who began no less than half of their staff’s video games this season.

32.6: Fortunately for Stidham, the Broncos’ offensive line defending him is likely one of the finest within the league. Their 32.6 strain price allowed is the fifth-best mark in soccer, per Sharp Soccer. The Broncos additionally led the league in sack price this season.

38.4: What additionally could be fortunate for Stidham is that he’s going up towards a Patriots protection that isn’t nice at forcing strain. New England’s 38.4 strain price was the Twelfth-best mark within the common season, per Sharp Soccer. They’ve been higher at attending to opposing quarterbacks thus far within the postseason with 9 sacks, however the Chargers’ and Texans’ offensive traces had been considered among the many worst within the league this season.

182: Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez has allowed simply 182 yards and one landing within the final 10 video games, per PFF. So, Stidham might need to throw to gamers aside from high vast receiver Courtland Sutton to search out success on Sunday.

3.9: The Broncos have averaged simply 3.9 yards per carry since J.Ok. Dobbins went down in Week 10. That mark would’ve been tied for the fourth-worst within the NFL with the Texans if they’d that mark for the whole lot of the 2025 season.

3.6: Patriots opponents have rushed for simply 3.6 yards per carry within the 15 video games Robert Spillane has been lively this season. So, operating the ball could be a good more durable battle for the Broncos on Sunday.

8: The unfold for Sunday’s sport has fluctuated all through the week. However as of Saturday afternoon, it sits at Patriots -3.5. If that holds, that might spell hassle for New England. Dwelling underdogs are 8-5 straight up within the convention championship sport for the reason that AFL-NFL merger.

5: The Broncos have additionally performed nicely as underdogs this season. They’re 5-1 straight up after they haven’t been favored, with their solely loss coming in Week 3 towards the Chargers. In addition they gained as an underdog final week towards the Payments.

12: However Maye has additionally accomplished nicely as a good favourite in his profession. He’s 12-0 straight up when the Patriots are favored by no less than 3.5 factors.

16: Mike Vrabel has additionally been good as a highway favourite in his head teaching profession, holding a 16-6 file straight up in video games by which his groups are favored on the highway. They’re additionally 8-0 straight up in such video games in December or later.