It’s pitching preview time, girls and gents. Over the subsequent a number of days, I’ll be writing 10,000 phrases or so about everybody you may see pitching for the Purple Sox to begin the season. I’ve put the staff’s beginning choices into tiers as a result of that’s how my mind works. Don’t consider them as rankings, however quite buckets primarily based on some similarities I see.
After starting with a look at Garrett Crochet, one of the best pitchers in baseball, after which transferring onto the two big offseason acquisitions, in the present day we shift to 4 pitchers who hope to fill out the again of the rotation, however who every have some inquiries to reply.
Tier Three: Veterans With Questions
Tier three is made up of Brayan Bello and Johan Oviedo, two pitchers who’ve established themselves as main leaguers however who’ve but to place all of the items of the puzzle collectively. The potential is off the charts, however the flooring is low.
2025 in a sentence: Bello had a strong 12 months, however his strikeouts had been down, the ball was in play, and he struggled late within the season.
Sonny Grey’s season line would lead many to consider he’s a bottom-of-the-rotation pitcher, when the underlying numbers inform a greater story. Brayan Bello’s season line, then again, paints him in a extra optimistic gentle than a glance underneath the hood.
In 29 appearances (28 begins and 1 bizarre five-inning look to renew a rain-delayed recreation), Bello posted a career-best 3.35 ERA. That mark was the ninth-best within the American League amongst qualifiers. On the similar time, his Okay-BB%, among the best predictors of future efficiency, was forty eighth of 52 qualifiers. Most public projection programs have Bello’s 2026 ERA someplace between 4.00 and 4.50.
We’ll begin with the nice. Bello throws a 95 mph sinker that reached as much as 99 mph at instances. He makes use of it 50% of the time in opposition to righties, and there’s not a ton they’ll do with it. It has 18 inches of horizontal break; he will get it in on righties’ palms nicely, and induces tons of weak contact because of this. The sinker is a good desk setter for Bello in opposition to righties, however he must refine the remainder of his method.
He launched a cutter that grew to become his second-most thrown pitch to right-handers by the tip of the season. It labored nicely, incomes strikes at a excessive fee and limiting exhausting contact. He struggled in September when he had a tough time throwing the pitch within the zone, and the strike fee fell about eight p.c, however end-of-season fatigue may very well be in charge. Total, the pitch was a strong addition to his repertoire.
Extra urgent than getting strikes, for Bello, was ending at-bats. His putaway fee was simply 16.6%, ninetieth of 127 starters with at the very least 100 innings pitched. Towards righties, he used a sweeper most frequently and had some success, however total, it was a median providing. He paired it with backdoor sinkers that additionally had restricted success. His four-seam fastball was ineffective with two strikes regardless of strong command on the high of the zone, and he left too many cutters over the plate quite than touchdown them on the glove facet.
Bello had comparable issues in opposition to lefties. His sinker and cutter went for strikes regularly, however lefties made higher contact than righties. With two strikes, he doesn’t have a single above-average providing. He went to his changeup regularly, however the sluggish ball was by no means within the zone and wasn’t engaging sufficient to punch hitters out. He tried his four-seam and sweeper as nicely, however neither offered optimistic outcomes. Total, it resulted in a 16.3% strikeout fee and 10% stroll fee to lefties. Bello was in a position to navigate by way of jams and hold runs off the board, however that type is probably going unsustainable over a bigger pattern.
When Bello takes the mound for the primary time in 2026, he may look completely different. He’s reportedly engaged on a brand new curveball in Spring Coaching. It stays to be seen what the form will appear like, however in idea, it may very well be flipped in for early strikes in opposition to lefties and function a putaway pitch within the dust later in counts. Edward Cabrera throws from an analogous arm slot and will present a blueprint for the form, although Cabrera is just a few inches taller. Bello’s additionally reportedly tinkering along with his changeup. An improved changeup is arguably crucial pitch for the righty, who wants one thing to place away lefties with frequently. If he can’t work out complementary pitches, his sinker nonetheless offers him a strong flooring as a back-of-the-rotation arm, however Bello’s sights must be set a lot larger.
2025 in a sentence: Oviedo flashed critical potential when he returned from Tommy John surgical procedure and a lat harm.
Of the Purple Sox’s beginning pitching acquisitions, Oviedo is the least flashy, however you possibly can make the case that he has the best ceiling. He made his season debut in August and made 9 appearances for the Pirates, posting a 3.57 ERA and 24.7% strikeout fee.
The story for Oviedo, principally since he entered the league, is about throwing strikes. His profession stroll fee is 11%, a lot larger than your typical top-of-the-line starter. “Fixing” his stroll drawback is pretty simple, and it comes all the way down to his fastballs. Oviedo has a five-pitch combine: four-seam, sinker, slider, curveball, and changeup. The slider and curveball every perform as strike-getters. The slider is used early in counts, is within the zone a ton, and manages to keep away from exhausting contact, whereas the curveball is within the zone much less, however nonetheless will get strikes at a excessive clip. Lefties see extra early curveballs, whereas righties see a heavy dose of sliders.
With two breaking balls getting strikes at a excessive clip, you’d suppose walks wouldn’t be a difficulty. Nevertheless, in 2025, and for many of his profession, his fastballs weren’t holding up their finish of the discount. Towards righties, his four-seam and sinker accounted for about 50% of his pitches, and the strike charges had been simply 54% and 52%, respectively. Lefties noticed 39% four-seams, and simply 55% of them had been strikes. Right here’s the kicker: his fastball, by stuff, might be his greatest pitch. It averaged 95.5 mph and was thrown with 7.4 ft of extension. The method angle is among the many flattest within the league. It’s not dissimilar from Payton Tolle’s lauded fastball.
If Oviedo can rein in his fastball and get the strike fee nearer to 65%, he may very well be an All-Star. I’d truly be keen to guess that if he throws 65% strikes along with his fastball, he will be an All-Star. If he can’t, there’s a case to be made for leaning even additional into “pitching backwards”. Throw extra breaking balls early in counts, and use the fastball above the zone to place hitters away. He has an choice 12 months remaining, which might make him the odd man out at first of the season. No matter his function, he’s a 6’6”, 275-pound sculpture that simply wants the ending touches.
Extra Oviedo: Red Sox acquire Johan Oviedo from the Pirates for Jhostynxon Garcia in five-player trade
Tier 4: Coming back from Damage
Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval make up the subsequent tier. It’s troublesome to mission both of them as they haven’t pitched since 2024, however they’ve every proven bat-missing stuff previously.
2025 in a sentence: Knee and wrist accidents stored Crawford off the sector for all of 2025.
Kutter Crawford was a pitcher who many picked to interrupt out in 2024, and whereas he put collectively a strong season (4.36 ERA over 183.2 innings), he didn’t fairly make the bounce that many anticipated. He struck out 23.1% of hitters whereas strolling 6.7% over 33 begins, however residence runs had been a difficulty as he led the league with 34 allowed.
Crawford had reverse splits, limiting lefties to a .683 OPS whereas righties posted a .732 mark. Lefties did account for 20 of the 34 residence runs with a roughly equal variety of at-bats, nevertheless. The important thing to his success in opposition to lefties is, you guessed it, his cutter. The pitch has extra horizontal motion than the common cutter, whereas holding its vertical airplane nicely. He’s in a position to throw the pitch excessive and glove facet in opposition to lefties early in counts, racking up strikes and jamming hitters. His four-seam has elite vertical motion, nevertheless it didn’t miss as many bats as you’d count on in 2024. Towards lefties in 2023, the 16.6% swinging strike fee was outstanding, however that quantity fell to simply 10.5% in 2024. The speed fell a couple of tick, probably because of the knee harm he was preventing, which might clarify the regression, nevertheless it was a worse pitch whatever the reasoning. The ICR% additionally jumped from a stellar 29.4% to a horrible 48.3%. Hopefully, further velocity comes with well being and may also help the pitch change into a plus providing as soon as once more as a result of it’s such an necessary pitch for Crawford. The fastball and cutter do many of the heavy lifting, however he additionally featured a splitter that carried out nicely in 2024. He used it in about 16% of his two-strike counts, and the outcomes had been nice. Regardless of a excessive zone fee, he generated swings and misses on 21% of his pitches, reliably punching lefties out. The contact in opposition to it wasn’t exhausting both, as he stored it on the outer half constantly. I ought to observe that his mistake fee with the splitter was excessive, although it wasn’t punished. Regardless, Crawford wants a two-strike providing in opposition to lefties, and the splitter matches the invoice.
Towards righties, it’s an analogous story. In 2024, he used a virtually equal cut up of four-seams, cutters, and sweepers. The four-seam and cutter every generated strikes at a excessive fee, however the former was hit extremely exhausting. In contrast to in opposition to lefties, its efficiency was in step with 2023, apart from a slight dip in whiffs. His cutter was glorious in opposition to righties, positioned down and away quite than up and in. His sweeper was a strong third pitch, although a real putaway breaking ball may assist him discover extra strikeouts.
The final model of Crawford we noticed has the makings of a strong pitcher, although unspectacular. House runs had been his undoing, with nearly 50% of his earned runs allowed coming through the lengthy ball. Whereas his plan of assault will all the time current the chance for residence runs, his 23.1% residence run/fly ball fee is bound to come back all the way down to a extra cheap quantity.
To me, velocity looks like the important thing for Kutter going into 2026. If he’s sitting 93-94, he seemingly will probably be among the best 5 pitchers on the roster. If he’s nearer to 91 mph, his upside will probably be restricted. He’s already a little bit bit not on time because of the flu, so he might begin the season within the bullpen. A part of me has all the time puzzled how he would look throwing 91 mph cutters 50% of the time. He’s obtained the arsenal to begin, however he may very well be an elite aid choice if issues shake out that manner.
2025 in a sentence: Sandoval hasn’t pitched since June 2024 because of elbow bother.
It’s been nearly two years since Sandoval noticed recreation motion, and his final season wasn’t an excellent one. He registered a 5.08 ERA over 79.2 innings earlier than being shut down with an elbow harm that required Tommy John surgical procedure. He’s a reclamation mission, which hasn’t labored for the Purple Sox just lately, however his ceiling is excessive if they’ll determine it out.
At his greatest, Sandoval gave lefties a ton of bother. In 2022, he struck out nearly 25% of lefties whereas strolling simply 6%. He did it with a slider-heavy method, utilizing it 49% of the time to nice impact. It’s a gyro slider that he was in a position to make use of within the zone successfully for each known as strikes and whiffs. In 2023, he leaned extra right into a cutter form and had a tough time discovering the zone with it, limiting his strike fee. In 2024, he threw the pitch tougher than ever and within the zone greater than ever whereas chopping the utilization, which stored the strike fee excessive, however led to exhausting contact in opposition to it. After the slider, his sinker has all the time been his most used secondary pitch to lefties. In 2024, Sandoval had management issues, and hitters had been affected person. Other than that season, when he wasn’t totally wholesome, the pitch has returned excessive strike charges and poor contact high quality. With utilization round 30%, the bottom ball fee in opposition to it has by no means been decrease than 56%. He used a four-seam as a shock two-strike providing as nicely, nevertheless it’s by no means been a very efficient pitch. Going ahead, I’d count on to see extra sinkers on the internal half to lefties, whereas persevering with to make use of his slider out and in of the zone. There’s a case to be made for creating two distinct pitch shapes as nicely, throwing a tougher cutter and a softer sweeper or slider.
Proper-handed hitters have been extra of an issue. All through his profession, Sandoval has by no means had an ideal reply for them. He makes use of a changeup about 30% of the time that performs nicely, nevertheless it doesn’t return strikes at a excessive sufficient fee to restrict walks. He makes use of his sinker, four-seam, and slider as nicely, with none producing nice outcomes. “Simply add a cutter” is cliched recommendation, however for Sandoval, it might present a pitch to get forward of righties and permit him to make use of either side of the plate.
There’s additionally the query of whether or not he will probably be on the staff. Sandoval’s title has been floated in commerce rumors all offseason because of his wage. A pitching-needy staff with an harm or two might take a flyer on the lefty to fill out their rotation. The Purple Sox are additionally quick on lefties. If he’s not within the rotation, he’ll seemingly stay stretched out for a long-relief function, however he may very well be used to match up with some lefties in leverage spots as nicely.
