New England Patriots
Consultants are tabbing New England to have a worse file than its 14-3 mark final season.
All 32 NFL groups launched their respective schedules for the 2026 season, and the New England Patriots have a doozy of a slate forward of them.
The Patriots had maybe one of many best schedules in 2025, during which they completed with a 14-3 file. They gained the AFC and finally fell to the Seattle Seahawks in Tremendous Bowl LX, their first look for the reason that 2018 season.
New England’s success in flip handed them a formidable regular-season schedule for 2026. You will discover the Patriots’ full slate with opponents and instances here, in addition to evaluation here.
Given the opponents New England will likely be tasked with, together with Seattle, the Denver Broncos (who the Patriots defeated within the AFC Championship recreation), and the Chicago Bears, to call just a few, it’s protected to imagine the reigning AFC champs will end with fewer wins than final 12 months.
That’s exactly what specialists are predicting following the staff’s schedule launch.
Listed below are a few of their closing 2026 Patriots file predictions:
Chad Graff has the Patriots successful double-digit video games and a second-place AFC East end behind the Buffalo Payments.
Graff believes New England’s “hardest stretch” will likely be Weeks 12-15 when it faces the Los Angeles Chargers, Payments, Minnesota Vikings, and Kansas Metropolis Chiefs.
“A 12 months in the past, the staff’s schedule was a scorching subject after a plethora of straightforward video games,” he wrote. “Nevertheless it’ll be exhausting to make that argument amid this brutal stretch of 4 matchups.”
Graff mentioned the Patriots made a number of welcome additions over the offseason coming off a brutal Tremendous Bowl loss, nevertheless it gained’t translate to extra wins.
“I do suppose the Patriots are a greater soccer staff than they had been the day they walked off the sphere in Santa Clara after the Tremendous Bowl. However they benefited a 12 months in the past from a traditionally straightforward schedule and relative luck with maintaining gamers wholesome,” he mentioned. “Neither is prone to repeat.
“So even whereas the Patriots could also be a greater staff in 2026 with a greater likelihood of successful the Tremendous Bowl, it’s extremely probably that they end the common season with a worse file than the 14-3 mark of a 12 months in the past.”
Mike Clay tabbed the Patriots to safe 10 victories primarily based on his projected win possibilities in every contest.
Clay gave New England a measly 32 p.c likelihood to beat the Seahawks in Week 1 whereas giving the franchise a 93 p.c likelihood of defeating the Miami Dolphins in Week 18.
ESPN ranked the Patriots’ power of schedule at 21 as one of many tougher slates.
Mike Reiss identified the top-heavy street video games New England will play to begin the season as his largest takeaway.
“The Patriots had been ‘street warriors’ final season as the one staff to win each recreation away from residence, and the NFL amped up the problem for them to duplicate that feat in 2026 with the staff having seven of its first 11 video games on the street,” he wrote. “Three of the primary 4 video games are away from residence (all in opposition to playoff groups from final season). And of the Patriots’ 5 primetime video games, 4 are on the street.”
Henry McKenna equally predicted the Patriots to drag off 10 regular-season wins.
“It’s really uncommon for a Tremendous Bowl loser to overlook the playoffs altogether, and I don’t suppose that’ll occur right here — not because the Patriots continued to spend money on their weak point on offense and constructed much more depth to their protection,” McKenna mentioned.
FOX defined New England made a number of welcome additions to assist bolster completely different areas of its roster, together with Alijah Vera-Tucker within the trenches and huge receiver Romeo Doubs.
The platform famous a possible looming A.J. Brown commerce, which may give the staff extra wins on paper.
“New England’s largest transfer this offseason may not have occurred but, although. The Patriots have been extensively linked to Philadelphia Eagles huge receiver A.J. Brown, who’s rumored to be traded after June 1. Such a transfer would give Drake Maye a transparent No. 1 huge receiver as he appears to be like to construct upon his MVP runner-up marketing campaign from 2025.”
Karen Guregian went the 10-7 route, too.
Guregian doesn’t suppose New England may have greater than a two-game win streak at any level within the 12 months.
She has the staff falling to Seattle (Week 1), Buffalo (Week 4), Chicago (Week 7), Detroit (Week 10), L.A. Chargers (Week 12), Kansas Metropolis (Week 15), and Denver (Week 17).
Phil Perry landed at a 10-7 file for the Patriots, as nicely. He predicted the staff would squeak into the playoffs with a wild-card spot.
Perry tabbed New England to beat the Detroit Lions in Munich, Germany, in Week 10.
He highlighted 5 uber-important video games on New England’s schedule that would make or break its means to compete within the postseason for the second season in a row.
“I feel there are some actually key video games right here,” Perry mentioned. “I’m considering Jacksonville. I’m considering Chicago. I’m considering Inexperienced Bay. I’m considering Detroit. I’m considering L.A. Chargers. All 5 of these groups are troublesome matchups, however they’re all video games that the Patriots may very realistically win.
“I’m not saying they are going to sweep them, however if you happen to can come out of these 5 with a successful file, you’re a playoff staff for my part.”
Brian Hines gave probably the most optimistic Patriots file prediction at 12-5.
His projected 5 losses are as follows:
Week 1 at Seattle
Week 4 at Buffalo
Week 7 at Chicago
Week 9 vs. Inexperienced Bay
Week 12 at Los Angeles Chargers
Hines’s 12-win prediction is simply two fewer than New England’s 14 wins in 2025.
Jordy McElroy has the Patriots doing fairly nicely for themselves with 11 wins.
He predicted New England to beat the Seahawks in Week 1, which is an attention-grabbing decide given the Patriots’ early underdog standing in that recreation.
McElroy famous the staff’s difficult schedule of opponents, however mentioned they are going to be “significantly better” in comparison with final season’s Tremendous Bowl-competing squad.
“The Patriots will likely be a significantly better staff in 2026, however they’ll take a step again within the win class as a consequence of a considerably tougher schedule,” he wrote. “Nevertheless, they are going to nonetheless be within the thick of issues in the case of competing with the Payments for the AFC East division title and making it to the playoffs. Something can occur as soon as a staff makes it to the postseason, because the Patriots confirmed final season.”
Matt Verderame predicted a just-above-.500 2026 Patriots common season file at 9-8.
Verderame doesn’t have almost as optimistic an outlook as different specialists, citing the group’s muddy offseason off the sphere within the Mike Vrabel-Dianna Russini fiasco. He additionally cited the staff’s troublesome schedule coming off a a lot simpler 2025 slate.
“New England made a surprising Tremendous Bowl look final 12 months, however actuality may come exhausting this 12 months,” he wrote. “Placing apart the off-field drama that has engulfed the group this offseason, the Patriots are additionally going from one of many league’s best schedules over the previous 30 years to a docket that features a whopping 5 street video games in opposition to 2025 playoff groups, together with journeys to Kansas Metropolis and Detroit.”
Get the newest Boston sports activities information
Obtain updates in your favourite Boston groups, straight from our newsroom to your inbox.
