Despite poor start, the Red Sox are still going to make the playoffs

Right here’s a pair of conflicting ideas I consider to my core:

As a baseball fan, I don’t know learn how to really feel about this. Baseball’s a sport that’s imagined to be about measuring greatness over 162 video games, and it’s turning into much less and fewer about that with every passing yr. Personally, I discover the addition of the third wild spot to be an abomination, and situations like this are precisely why.

I shouldn’t really feel this assured a workforce that’s seemed as underwhelming because the 2026 Pink Sox over the primary third of the season goes to October, and but, with every passing day, I discover it tougher and tougher to see how they miss the goal. With that, let’s dive into the 4 primary causes I feel this group continues to be going to punch their ticket to the dance:

1) The American League completely STINKS!!!

I’ve by no means seen an American League this wretched in my lifetime. It’s a joke! As of Wednesday night time, Fangraphs projects both the winner of the AL Central (Cleveland) and the NL West (Seattle) to get there with 83 wins. No different workforce in these divisions is modeled to complete over .500 with Texas coming the closest at 81-81.

Because of this if these projections are appropriate, all of the Pink Sox must do to make the playoffs is beat the Orioles and end above .500. May you probably set the bar any decrease? (Truly, don’t reply that. We would give these grasping house owners extra concepts.)

Right here’s one other insane, approach too early thought whereas we’re down this rabbit gap: The workforce that finishes in fourth place within the AL East would possibly really find yourself with the simplest street in October. If this situation performs out the place the Rays, Yankees, Blue Jays and Pink Sox all make it, the fourth place AL East workforce could be the No. 6 seed and play the No. 3 seed within the Wild Card spherical, which needs to be a division winner from the AL West or the AL Central. The winner of that collection would then be assured to play the No. 2 seed, which if issues maintain going the best way they’re could be the opposite AL West or AL Central workforce.

In the meantime, the second and third place finishers within the AL East would face one another because the No. 4 and No. 5 seeds within the Wild Card spherical, after which they must play the No. 1 seed. In different phrases, we might be headed for a fall the place the fourth place finisher within the AL East will get an October path by way of the AL West and AL Central whereas the highest three groups within the AL East all must undergo one another.

Do you see what’s occurring right here?

2) The upside of the rotation.

The continued emergence of Payton Tolle and Connelly Early has been one of many largest positives on the 2026 Pink Sox season, and that’s vital to notice as a result of not solely have they helped make the beginning rotation the strongest side of this workforce, however they’ve additionally accomplished it whereas Garrett Crochet, Ranger Suarez, and Sonny Grey have been unable to fireplace on all cylinders on the identical time — and that’s most likely going to alter quickly.

Sonny Grey, who often posts, missed a few weeks with a hamstring harm. Ranger Suarez acquired off to a gradual begin after which missed an outing with a hamstring tweak of his personal earlier this month. And Garrett Crochet has already been out for 4 weeks and counting.

And whereas we’re on Crochet, I can’t underscore sufficient how little the Pink Sox have gotten from him to this point. They’re 3-3 in his six video games, wherein he’s ranged from wanting like classic Crochet to the man who gave up ten earned runs in Minnesota. Final yr, the Pink Sox had been 14 video games over .500 (23-9) in his begins. In different phrases, the 2025 Pink Sox had been a .500 workforce whenever you throw out the Crochet begins – and in reality, they had been precisely a .500 workforce with out him if you happen to embody playoff video games.

Since Chad Tracy took over, the Pink Sox are 12-10 and Garrett Crochet hasn’t began a single recreation. So whereas it’s far too late within the season to anticipate something just like the 14 video games over .500 they acquired from Crochet final yr, he’s nonetheless more likely to elevate this rotation in a major approach when he comes again this summer season. And it might be actually important if the opposite 4 guys keep wholesome and the man getting displaced is Brayan Bello.

3) Their protection is great

We dove into this two weeks ago her at Over The Monster, however the Pink Sox are getting above common protection at nearly each place, and the numbers beneath the hood recommend that’s going to proceed.

Right here’s a Defensive Runs Saved replace from Thomas Nestico of TJ stats:

And a Fielding Run Worth leaderboard:

There’s no cause to anticipate the Pink Sox to fall very removed from these numbers going ahead. In reality, certainly one of their weaker defenders all yr has been Trevor Story, and if he does find yourself getting surgical procedure and is out for some time, Marcelo Mayer would possibly take over shortstop, which might additional carry the workforce’s defensive ceiling.

The underside line is that this: The Pink Sox can pitch and play protection, and in all my years of watching baseball, groups that try this just about by no means find yourself sucking over 162 video games. They may suck for a part of the season and miss the playoffs with a mediocre file, however ultimately there’s a stretch the place they rip off a reasonably strong file as a result of there are simply too many video games in the summertime months the place they’ve the pitching benefit.

Mix this with the traditionally weak American League and MLB’s new bloated playoff format, and it’s exhausting to see how this doesn’t pay dividends for Boston.

4) It will likely be nearly not possible for the Pink Sox offense to remain this unproductive.

The Pink Sox presently rank final within the American League in dwelling runs, runs scored, RBI, and wRC+ (and I really feel the necessity to emphasize we’re speaking about THIS American League). They’ve scored simply 3.69 runs per recreation, which isn’t solely final within the American League, however can be the bottom quantity they’ve posted as a workforce since 1943, when Ted Williams stepped away from the lineup to combat in World Battle II.

So sure, they stink, however they actually can’t get any worse, and that’s a very vital element the extra you unpack it. Their present offensive output thus far hand landed them simply two video games out of a Wild Card spot due to their pitching and protection, and maybe even extra importantly, they’ve been ridiculously dangerous in situational spots till the final couple of video games. Think about that, according to baseball refence, the Pink Sox have:

In different phrases, the entire Pink Sox suckage on the plate, which once more lands them final within the AL and as dangerous because the franchise has seen in 83 years, has been packed particularly into their excessive leverage plate appearances. They’re mainly proper at league common in medium and low leverage spots, after which a whopping 143 factors off the tempo when it issues most.

Now, you would possibly have a look at this and say this makes them losers who don’t know learn how to deal with situational at bats, and also you’re most likely proper. However then once more, even when that’s true, they will’t probably maintain sequencing THIS poorly. The regulation of averages can solely assist them from this place.

Tie all of it collectively and even a modest enhance in offensive manufacturing coupled with this rotation, and this protection, on this American League, and the Pink Sox should actually, actually screw issues up to not make it to October. I think about them! (Take that final sentence nevertheless you need.)