Again in February, ZiPS projections had been posted, and so they did not have a single Red Sox participant reaching the 20 house run threshold. Twitter/X received a maintain of this and ran with it, turning into a simple speaking level for many who felt that Craig Breslow’s offseason effort to repair the ability within the lineup fell quick (most of us).
After 49 video games, 30% of the season, right here is how the Purple Sox regulars are pacing for house runs:
Everybody else on the crew has one house run or fewer to this point, together with Caleb Durbin, Roman Anthony, and Masataka Yoshida. Be at liberty to try this math your self.
It in all probability ought to have been apparent on the time that ZiPS was low on Contreras, contemplating that they had him at a projected 118 video games performed, monitoring extra like a catcher than a primary baseman, however in any other case, they’ve been proper on. That being stated, it’s Memorial Day Weekend, so issues ought to begin heating up at Fenway, proper about nowish. Taking a look at Statcast’s Park Factors for 2026, Fenway has performed because the fifth most troublesome park to hit in general, and the #1 most troublesome park to hit a house run at, and it’s really not even shut.
If you happen to use the three years prior (2023-2025), Fenway is the second-most pleasant park general, and tops when it comes to doubles, however seventh-most troublesome for homers.
I’ll say that Contreras and Abreu attain the 20 house run threshold, and that’s it. If this Sox crew makes a wild card run over the subsequent two months on this pathetic American League (outlined here, and here, on Over the Monster during the last two days), it must be fairly clear {that a} energy bat is what the crew might want to add on the deadline, and ideally effectively earlier than the deadline.
Benefit from the lengthy weekend, and be good to one another.
