Chad Tracy stepped into this role with an interesting résumé. Years growing hitters within the Crimson Sox minor league system, constructing lineups with items that weren’t fairly prepared for prime time. Now he’s doing it within the majors, the place the margin for error is completely different and the stakes are actual. The early returns: 23 video games, a 12-11 file thus far.
That file doesn’t inform the entire story, although. The offense hasn’t improved. Not even shut. Boston is just averaging 3.14 runs per sport underneath Tracy vs. 4.15 underneath Alex Cora within the 2026 season. The group hasn’t gotten higher at scoring. It’s gotten higher at not giving video games away, and the pitching deserves most of that credit score.
However lineup building is extra of a narrative right here than it’d have a look at first. Loads of what Tracy has completed seems to be just like what Cora was doing—however the issues which are truly completely different have basically modified how this group operates on a nightly foundation.
To know the distinction, I scraped each Crimson Sox sport from Baseball Reference and ran the information via some fairly intense Python. A bit caveat; the next evaluation covers 49 video games via Might twenty first, simply earlier than the beginning of the Twins collection final night time.
The clearest discovering isn’t about who Tracy places within the lineup. It’s about what they do as soon as they’re in there.
Each managers shuffle the lineup continually. Tracy has written 21 completely different lineups in 22 video games. Cora wrote 26 in 27. Neither of them was the soundness man: one thing modified nearly each night time.
What’s completely different is how they shuffle. Underneath Cora, the identical group of gamers appeared in wildly completely different spots within the order from sport to sport. A man who hit fifth on Tuesday would possibly hit second on Wednesday and seventh on Friday. Underneath Tracy—when a participant is within the lineup, he tends to know the place he’s hitting. Tracy adjustments who’s within the lineup greater than he modifies the place his regulars hit. For some gamers, that consistency has made an actual distinction. For others, the consistency is the issue.
Re-Establishing The Prime Of The Lineup
No participant’s deployment tells the Tracy story extra clearly than Jarren Duran’s.
Underneath Cora, Duran bounced round—second, third, fourth, fifth, and solely 4 video games within the lead-off slot. To measure how scattered that was, we calculated a consistency rating for every participant: a quantity that captures how all-over-the-place a participant’s lineup spot has been throughout the season. A rating of zero means they’ve batted in the very same spot each single sport. The upper the quantity, the extra random their placement has been. Duran’s rating underneath Cora was 2.4. That’s excessive. Cora by no means actually made up his thoughts about the place Duran match.
Tracy made up his thoughts on day one. Duran has batted leadoff in nearly each sport since Tracy took over, and his consistency rating has dropped to 0.27—principally as near zero as you’ll see from any participant on any group mid-season. Genuinely—excluding one sport in late April the place Duran was put seventh within the order and a sporadic off day right here and there—Tracy has checked out Duran, put him first, and hasn’t blinked.
Duran’s total OPS is .562 on the 12 months. That’s not nice for a leadoff hitter. Tracy isn’t rewarding efficiency right here; he’s betting. Get your most disruptive presence on base first, let him trigger issues on the prime, and construct from there. Currently, that wager is trying smarter. Duran has began to search out his groove over the current stretch of video games, trying extra just like the hitter who earned this position within the first place. Whether or not you agree with Tracy’s reasoning or not, it’s an actual, dedicated determination. Cora by no means fairly received there.
Pushing The Issues Down
Underneath Cora, Durbin averaged the six-hole within the lineup and was a daily presence throughout 24 begins. Underneath Tracy, he’s been sliding steadily towards the underside of the order. He’s now averaging nearer to the 8-hole, and the motion has been constant sufficient over a number of weeks that it’s clearly not random. His OPS is .372. That quantity tells you all the pieces about why. I wrote earlier this season about Durbin’s bat pace being akin to rolling up a newspaper to swat a fly. That hasn’t precisely modified and Tracy is placing him ready that feels much more comfy for the form of this group and hopefully for Durbin’s improvement.
Trevor Story is a distinct type of story. Underneath Cora he was a middle-of-the-order fixture across the cleanup spot. Story was clearly relied upon underneath Cora to be a frontrunner and was relied on for his slot within the order—no matter what possession appears to assume. Underneath Tracy, he’s floated between fourth and eighth: nonetheless within the lineup when wholesome, however clearly not trusted with the large RBI spot he occupied earlier within the season. Story’s Win Likelihood Added has been the worst on the roster by a big margin. He’s value this group extra in high-stakes moments than another hitter. Story final began on Might 14 and is now on the injured listing till at the very least July. How a lot of his earlier poor type is because of this sports activities hernia? Who’s to say.
The underside of the order underneath Tracy is the place issues go to do the least doable injury. That’s not an insult — it’s simply the way you handle a roster if you don’t have the depth to cover something. Durbin will get buried. Story floated downward. And the fellows who can truly hit get pushed up.
He Really Thinks About Matchups
Right here’s one thing that doesn’t present up within the field rating: Tracy has written a noticeably completely different lineup relying on who’s beginning on the mound for the opposite group.
The pattern is small, simply 5 video games towards left-handed starters underneath Tracy versus seventeen towards righties; deal with these as tendencies to observe reasonably than definitive patterns. Nonetheless, the route is obvious sufficient to be value discussing.
The largest mover is Andruw Monasterio. In opposition to RHPs, Monasterio has averaged the sixth or seventh spot within the lineup. In opposition to lefties, he jumps up greater than two full spots, nearer to the cleanup space. Tracy is utilizing him extra as a lefty specialist, recognizing {that a} right-handed hitter with that type of flexibility is most beneficial when the matchup truly requires it. See his begin on Friday night time as DH towards southpaw Connor Prielipp as some good proof there.
The flip facet is Isiah Kiner-Falefa. In opposition to righties, he bats round sixth. In opposition to lefties, Tracy buries him ninth. If you understand the splits, the reason being apparent. Tracy clearly is aware of his splits.
Ceddanne Rafaela additionally bumps up within the order towards left-handed starters on common, although the sign is softer than Monasterio’s. Tracy is considering the opposing arm when he writes the cardboard.
The One He Nonetheless Hasn’t Figured Out
Rafaela’s total deployment is the trustworthy counterpoint to all of this.
He’s beginning nearly each sport—19 of twenty-two begins underneath Tracy—which tells you Tracy values what he brings. However the lineup retains transferring him round with out a clear sample past the broad lefty-righty adjustment above. He’s batted fifth, seventh, sixth, eighth, and third. There’s no actual house. His consistency rating is the second-highest on the roster, that means he’s extra unpredictably positioned than nearly anybody else within the lineup. He began within the two-hole on Friday in Boston, the primary time underneath Tracy and the fourth time this season. His chaos learn within the lineup is in every single place. If Tracy is beginning to think about him as a top-of-the-order choice towards lefties, that’s one thing to regulate.
A few of that’s the nature of who Rafaela is — his protection in heart subject is nice sufficient that he earns his spot regardless, and Tracy in all probability has extra freedom to maneuver him round due to it. However you get the sense Tracy hasn’t absolutely determined what offensive position he desires Rafaela in. A consistency rating that prime doesn’t lie. It means nobody is aware of the place he’s batting tomorrow, together with the supervisor.
Mickey Gasper is a footnote value mentioning in all of this. He didn’t exist in Cora’s lineup—each one among his eight begins has come underneath Tracy, and he’s been one of many extra attention-grabbing tales of this stretch. He’s slotting primarily into the 2-hole and posting over a 1.000 OPS. If that holds, Tracy’s going to should account for him when the roster will get extra crowded. Once more, is that this a product of Tracy coming from Worcester, figuring out these AAA regulars higher, and having religion about their utilization in Boston? Nonetheless not sufficient pattern measurement there to know for positive.
The Lineup Is About To Get A Lot Extra Difficult
The lineup Chad Tracy will write in July goes to look nearly nothing just like the one he’s been writing in Might. And the choices ready for him are legitimately laborious ones.
Roman Anthony is probably the most urgent. He hasn’t began since Might 4—14 straight Tracy video games missed together with his wrist harm—however he’s anticipated to be the primary of the large injured items to return. Earlier than this, within the eight begins Anthony made underneath the brand new skipper, he batted third seven occasions and first as soon as. That’s a transparent reply about how Tracy sees him. Underneath Cora, Anthony was basically the leadoff hitter. That position belongs to Duran now, and it’s not altering when Anthony comes again. The sensible lineup when Anthony is wholesome: Duran main off, perhaps Rafaela or a platoon hitting second (we’ll see if Micky Gasper isn’t the primary ship down again to Worcester at that time limit), Anthony third, Abreu fourth. That’s an actual prime of the order — and it might come collectively earlier than the tip of June.
Trevor Story is extra of a July drawback. He’s out till at the very least then, and truthfully, the lineup has been high quality sufficient in his absence given the place his numbers had been. Whoever fills that spot within the meantime isn’t going to match Story’s identify worth. They may match his precise manufacturing with out an excessive amount of bother. The extra attention-grabbing query is what Tracy does with Story when he comes again wholesome. Does he reclaim a middle-of-the-order spot on popularity? Or does the information — and Tracy — say in any other case?
After which there’s Triston Casas, who hasn’t appeared in a single sport this season. Extra setbacks in his restoration however he’s nonetheless contractually obligated to this group. If and when Casas comes again, Tracy has an actual determination at first base. Contreras has been the group’s greatest run-producer this season—10 house runs, strong OPS, 1,000th profession RBI, and he’s been doing it at first. You’ll be able to’t simply bench Contreras. However you can also’t ignore what Casas is when wholesome. Of the three injured items, Casas seemingly comes again final, which at the very least offers Tracy some runway earlier than he has to make that decision. Even for Conteras, the return of Anthony places him in a pickle. Is he the 5 gap man, does he get begins on the two spot, does he shuffle everybody else and keep because the cleanup hitter he’s been up to now week? These are good issues to have, however nonetheless laborious ones to make.
Chad Tracy has spent 23 video games making actual choices and principally making good ones. He dedicated to Duran on the prime, buried his issues on the backside, and genuinely understands his roster sufficient to make the appropriate tweaks going through lefty vs. righty starters. He responds to what’s in entrance of him. That’s a coherent strategy and the file displays it.
However the roster he’ll handle in July received’t be precisely the roster he has in the present day. And the choices he makes when the items come again will inform us much more about what sort of supervisor he truly is.
