What’s the best Red Sox lineup for the rest of 2025?

As Boston’s roster turns into more and more crowded with the return of Masataka Yoshida and Alex Bregman, I believed it could be time for me to take my third shot at optimizing the Red Sox lineup. Again in 2023, I attempted to optimize the lineup based mostly on analysis from Tom Tango’s The Guide, with a particular concentrate on discovering a leadoff hitter for a Pink Sox membership that was just about throwing issues on the wall and seeing what would possibly stick.

This 12 months, Boston has presumably an overload of top-of-the-lineup batters. Nevertheless it’s all the time fascinating to take a look at an optimized model of a lineup as a result of, in doing so, a workforce can squeeze out an additional 4 or 5 wins over the course of the season, a welcome benefit for a workforce this streaky. With some powerful selections looming giant this week, it’s time to see tips on how to get probably the most out of a workforce that appears to be discovering its identification simply previous the midway level of the season. This 12 months, I modified some issues up and determined to create a lineup for LHP starters, RHP starters, and simply usually, contemplating the platoon-heavy lineup that Boston has trotted out as of late.

Though there are many stereotypes in baseball surrounding the concept of constructing a lineup, sabermetrics and up to date advances in lineup optimization analysis over the previous twenty years have initiated a brand new space of improvement and set new requirements all through the massive leagues (in some instances). One in all these non-digital advances is Tom Tango’s The Guide. Initially printed in 2006, The Guide features a hefty chapter on lineup optimization that appears at elements reminiscent of DP charge, baserunning, wOBA, and different statistics and sport elements that can be utilized to construct an optimum lineup. Nearly all of my analysis has come from this chapter of The Guide, and I’ll clarify a few essential factors a bit additional earlier than we get to making use of the ideas to the 2025 Pink Sox.

Generally, the No. 1 hitter will get 2.5% extra plate appearances per sport than the No. 2 hitter and so forth and so forth down the complete lineup. Due to this, every batting slot has 2.5% extra of an impact on the result of the sport than the next slot. In fact, this isn’t the one — and even most essential — issue, which means that your greatest hitter shouldn’t essentially be positioned within the leadoff spot. A confounding variable emerges after we take into consideration the 24 base/out states which can be potential in baseball (e.g., a runner on first with no outs, bases loaded with two outs, and many others.).

This leads us to 2 essential charts, which present the frequency with which a lineup spot sees a base/out state (not mixed, and all complete numbers are per sport).

All information in these tables are based mostly on AL numbers solely, since The Guide was written in 2006 and isn’t fairly as considering factoring pitchers’ batting numbers into lineup optimization.

Tom Tango

By these two tables, we will start to grasp how confounding elements all through the sport have an effect on a lineup and, in flip, the sort of hitter you’d wish to have in a sure spot. That leads us to the Huge Daddy of all tables, which is initially overwhelming to take a look at, and combines all the info from these earlier tables into one that provides the Run Expectancy (RE) for every occasion in every lineup spot. Run Expectancy measures the anticipated runs precipitated/created by an occasion. So, for instance, a double by the No. 2 hitter would, on common, lead to .799 runs for a workforce when contemplating the lads which may be on base, the variety of outs there could also be, and the PA issue of the lineup spot.

Tom Tango

With these overarching elements in thoughts, I’ll clarify a pair extra position-specific correlations/tendencies earlier than diving into what this 12 months’s lineup ought to appear to be to maximise Boston’s output for the remainder of the 12 months.

No. 2 and No. 4 Hitters

The No. 4 hitter has a bonus in all XBH classes, however the No. 2 hitter has an equal benefit in NIBB and HBP. Because of this the No. 4 and No. 2 hitters needs to be comparatively equal in efficiency as a complete, however the cleanup man ought to submit a greater SLG%/ISO, whereas the No. 2 hitter ought to present extra constant on-base numbers.

One other factor to remember with that is that the No. 2 hitter can have 5% extra plate appearances than the four-spot batter, however on common, the No. 4 hitter will likely be up with extra males on base, which is essential when contemplating the XBH benefit.

No. 2, No. 3, and No. 4 Hitters

In the course of what needs to be two related gamers within the No. 2 and No. 4 spots is the No. 3 hitter. Practically each occasion favors the No. 2 hitter by 0.02-0.03 runs, whereas the No. 4 hitter additionally has a bonus in RE throughout the board. Because of this the No. 3 hitter needs to be a worse hitter than each the No. 2 and No. 4 hitters.

No. 3 and No. 5 hitters

The No. 5 hitter has a 0.03 RE benefit on singles, doubles, triples and NIBB, whereas the No. 3 hitter has the 0.02 RE benefit on the HR. This makes each out for the No. 5 extra expensive than the identical out within the No. 3 spot. Due to this, the No. 5 hitter ought to truly be higher than the No. 3, however, ideally, the higher dwelling run hitter needs to be within the three-spot. The house run is extra useful for the No. 3 hitter largely as a result of they’re extra prone to be as much as bat with two outs, making a single occasion to supply a run (irrespective of the opposite sport circumstances) more and more helpful.

Nos. 6 by means of 9

From right here on, issues get a bit easier, as every batter 6-9 has decrease RE values solely than the slot above it. So, for these last three spots, it ought to actually simply be a lower in offensive expertise as you progress down the road.

No. 1 hitter

The No. 1 hitter finds its biggest RE benefit in walks and its greatest drawback in dwelling runs. Due to this, the No. 1 hitter needs to be related in expertise to the No. 2 hitter however with higher plate self-discipline.

Strikeouts And Their Results On Optimization

So far as strikeouts and their impact on the sport go, the three, 4, and 5 spots are on reverse ends of the spectrum. Due to this, you need your greatest hitter with probably the most strikeouts within the three-spot, in order to maximise run worth. It is because when the No. 3 hitter strikes out, it has much less impact on the sport than if the No. 1, 2, 4, and 5 spots had been to do the identical.

Moreover, it’s best to place a low strikeout hitter within the fourth and fifth slots, the place strikeouts have a few of their most expensive values because of frequent base/out states.

Double Play Tendencies All through A Lineup

Double play (DP) conditions per sport, relative to league common by batting order, are essential to contemplate when constructing a lineup: particularly within the No. 3 (0.18 DP conditions/sport) and No. 5 (0.02 DP conditions/sport) spots — the place the numbers of DP/sport are at their separate extremities. For this quantification throughout the Pink Sox lineup, I evaluated DPrate, which charges a participant’s tendency to hit into double performs relative to league common (to date, this season’s league common DPrate is 8.5%). The participant with the perfect DPrate needs to be positioned third, as they’re much less prone to GIDP, whereas the perfect participant with the worst DPrate needs to be fifth, the place they expertise fewer probabilities to hit right into a double play. I calculated this worth for every principal Pink Sox hitter in 2025:

Baserunning and basestealing

One last level of significance earlier than we get to making use of these ideas to the Pink Sox: baserunning and basestealing. As Tango explains in The Guide, baserunning and base stealing find yourself canceling one another out when making an attempt to construct a lineup to favor particular person base stealing and baserunning. To higher clarify this, here’s a quote from The Guide itself:

“A terrific baserunner is normally, however not all the time, a terrific basestealer. …[Y]ou would like to steal a base, and get into scoring place, so long as you will have a hitter that hits quite a lot of singles, however not many extra-base hits. That is the explanation we would like our basestealer to bat fifth or sixth. On the similar time, you like to have your nice baserunner in entrance of hitters that hit quite a lot of singles [in order to optimize their value], no matter their energy numbers. That is the explanation we would like them on the prime of the order.”

Basically, this creates a paradox the place we are attempting to place the identical individual— one that may be a good baserunner and base stealer— into reverse positions in a lineup, which is why worrying about velocity in its totally different points is a little bit of an insignificant issue to contemplate when optimizing a lineup.

With all of the elements that go into lineup optimization, it’s virtually unattainable to contemplate each issue that is a bonus or drawback to a sure spot within the lineup as a result of it’d have you ever putting hitters in conflicting positions. (e.g.: consistency is essential within the No. 2 spot due to their excessive PA issue, however what in case your most constant hitter can be your strongest hitter, and will due to this fact be positioned within the No. 4 spot to maximise the effectiveness of the lengthy ball?). However only for context, right here’s what Tango has for what an optimum lineup ought to appear to be.

Tom Tango

Clearly, the expertise assumed throughout this lineup is comparatively exhausting to seek out in at the moment’s sport, however it’s useful for constructing what can be greatest when you will have conflicting elements due to a participant’s model of play.

So, lastly, with all this information in thoughts, let’s see the way it ought to apply to the Pink Sox, lets?

Since I do know this complete factor was lots to even get so far, right here’s a basic breakdown to remember:

• 1 (extra walks) ≈ 2 (general consistency) ≈ 4 (extra energy, fewer strikeouts)
• 3 (most strikeouts, decrease DPrate) < 2, 4 and (due to that) 1
• 5 (higher OBP, fewer strikeouts, greater DPrate) > 3 (extra energy)

For the reason that platoon strategy has been fairly closely used this 12 months, I’ll be positing an optimized lineup towards LHP, RHP, and usually.

Now, let’s get to the optimized Pink Sox lineups

The Optimized LHP Lineup

During which all of us get to bask within the glory of leadoff Rob Ref for a bit longer!

1. Refsnyder DH
2. Bregman 3B
3. Story/Gonzalez SS/1B
4. Abreu RF
5. Gonzalez/Story/Anthony 1B/SS
6. Anthony/Gonzalez LF
7. Narvaez C
8. Rafaela CF
9. Mayer 2B

Why?

Refsnyder serves as your virtually picture-perfect leadoff hitter with OBP and AVG, and Bregman supplies you consistency within the No. 2 spot (he’s slashing .370/.500/.500 towards lefties this 12 months). Story and Gonzalez are interchangeable at Nos. 5 and three for me. Story can be largely most well-liked within the three-spot due to his HR skills, however Gonzalez could possibly be argued to change to there from the No. 5 because of his low DPrate, which might place him within the more than likely spot to hit right into a double play. Abreu claims the No. 4 spot largely because of his energy numbers and Bregman’s OBP being a lot greater.

OR

1. Bregman 3B
2. Story SS
3. Yoshida DH
4. Abreu RF
5. Anthony LF
6. Gonzalez/Toro 1B
7. Narvaez C
8. Rafaela CF
9. Mayer 2B

Why?

Whereas I strongly consider Refsnyder needs to be in there on days versus LHPs, the overcrowded roster complicates issues only a bit, in order that’s an alternate lineup in case you’re hell-bent on getting Yoshida in there.

Bregman is a superb leadoff man if Refsnyder isn’t in there for no matter purpose due to his consistency and OBP, whereas Story strikes up one. Yoshida overtakes Anthony within the No. 3 spot for his HR numbers, pushing the 1B tandem out of the highest 5 spots.

The Optimized RHP Lineup

With out actually having to throw Refsnyder within the DH combine, Boston’s optimum lineup towards righties is a bit easier, however makes the outfield extra crowded:

1. Duran LF
2. Toro 1B
3. Story/Bregman SS/3B
4. Abreu/Anthony RF
5. Bregman/Story 3B/SS
6. Yoshida DH
7. Narvaez C
8. Rafaela CF
9. Mayer 2B

Why?

Duran is a less-hot Refsnyder towards righties, which slots him in completely on the leadoff spot. Toro’s OBP makes him the perfect constant choice for No. 2, whereas Story and Bregman are interchangeable on the 3/5, largely relying on who has the upper SLG% or HR numbers. Taking out an outfield spot, it’d be Abreu and Anthony switching off at No. 4 and out in proper subject.

And at last, the generic, split-less, easy lineup that’s usable throughout video games, however largely strips us of the enjoyment of watching Rob Refsnyder play baseball:

1. Bregman 3B
2. Anthony LF
3. Story/ SS
4. Abreu RF
5. Yoshida DH
6. Narvaez C
7. Gonzalez/Toro 1B
8. Rafaela CF
9. Mayer 2B

Why?

Whereas slotting in at No. 2 or No. 3 spot within the platoon lineups, Bregman’s general stats make him the right candidate for the leadoff spot with the very best OBP on the workforce and a .402 wOBA. Anthony strikes as much as the two-hole because of his capability to succeed in base and Story’s HR benefit (in the meanwhile), whereas Yoshida claims the No. 5 spot as a well-rounded hitter. Abreu stays fourth for his energy, whereas Narvaez overtakes the first-base platoon in a basic lineup.