We’re about one month out from Choice Sunday, and as they’ve over the past a number of years, the choice committee shall be revealing their prime 16 as we speak at 12:30 PM. I’ve made it custom to make a bracketology proper earlier than the reveal, predicting their prime 16 in addition to the remainder of the sector. That’s what I’m right here as we speak to put in writing about. Maintain studying beneath to see my present discipline of 68.
Word: An asterisk represents a group that might obtain an autobid to the event
South Area
The Prime 4
- Auburn (22-2, #1 general)*
Kansas (17-7, #8 general)
Ole Miss (19-6, #12 general)
UCLA (18-7, #14 general)
To me, Auburn continues to be the far and away prime group within the nation. Their solely losses are to Duke and Florida, groups that even have 1-seed caliber resumes. Led by large man Johni Broome, this group simply retains rolling.
Kansas definitely has work to do in late sport conditions, and so they’ve misplaced three Saturdays in a row. Nonetheless, they’ve quietly strung collectively one of many nation’s strongest resumes, beating who they’re speculated to beat and choosing up large wins over Duke and Iowa State. This group has the expertise to make a deep run, and the chemistry, whereas imperfect, is way from a catastrophe. If they will get a little bit extra offensively from guys like Dajuan Harris, Ok.J. Adams, and A.J. Storr, they might have the best ceiling within the nation.
Ole Miss is likely one of the extra underrated groups in faculty hoops. They’ve but to lose to a group exterior my projected event discipline, and so they achieved a feat no person else has this season after they upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Add their street win over Arkansas to that and this group has a prime 15 resume for positive.
UCLA was a detailed name by way of cracking the highest 16, however profitable 7 of their final 8 has definitely contributed. That plus large wins over Gonzaga and Arizona in December is sufficient to push them over the sting.
The Remainder of the Subject
5. 
Kentucky (17-7)
6. 
Creighton (18-7)
7. 
Illinois (17-8)
8. 
Vanderbilt (17-7)
9. 
Baylor (15-9)
10. 
San Diego State (16-6)
11. UNC (14-11) / Wake Forest (18-7)
12. 
Arkansas State (18-7)*
13. 
Lipscomb (18-8)*
14. 
American (16-10)*
15. 
Utah Valley (17-7)*
16. Bryant (16-10)* / Merrimack (14-10)*
Kentucky simply barely fell in need of the highest 16 on this projection, however on this hypothetical bracket, they’d have an opportunity to show me by beating UCLA within the Spherical of 32.
Vanderbilt has made an enormous bounce for me in latest weeks. The loss to Drake is wanting much less obtrusive given their 23-2 report. As well as, they’ve defeated Tennessee, Kentucky, and Texas all throughout the final month. On the opposite aspect of the coin, Baylor has fallen down my bracket; they’ve misplaced 3 of their final 5 and their win/loss report is struggling. Will Norchad Omier, Jeremy Roach, and V.J. Edgecombe do sufficient to maintain them alive?
Regardless of their 14-11 report, UNC simply barely makes the reduce for me. They acquired revenge on the worst group they misplaced to in Pittsburgh, and R.J. Davis has nonetheless been phenomenal. They’ll have a First 4 ACC faceoff with Hunter Sallis and the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest received the primary version of this matchup, can they do it once more?
Arkansas State stands out to me as a possible sneaky mid-major. They upset Memphis and have adopted that up with a superb season within the Solar Belt.
Midwest Area
The Prime 4
Florida (21-3, #4 general)
Houston (20-4, #5 general)*
Purdue (19-6, #11 general)
Marquette (19-6, #16 general)
The Gators are one of many greatest nice surprises of the season. Walter Clayton Jr. has been close to unstoppable, and the backcourt trio with Alijah Martin and Will Richard is among the many nation’s finest. They adopted up a 13-0 begin with an 8-3 report in SEC play that almost all not too long ago features a win at Auburn.
Houston began their season 4-3, however the group has received 16 of their final 17 to safe their spot amongst one of the best groups within the nation. After a comparatively straightforward begin to their Massive 12 schedule, they made an enormous assertion when J’Wan Roberts led them previous Kansas for a double OT street victory and have saved up that degree of play since.
Purdue has had a number of inconsistencies, dropping video games to Ohio State and Penn State. Nonetheless, they’re nonetheless among the best groups of their convention, led by large steps up from Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn. They’ve the expertise and the wins to be ranked this excessive.
One of many highlights of Marquette’s season was upsetting the above Purdue group. For those who take out their 1-1 break up with Massive East rival Xavier, they’ve additionally averted losses towards groups exterior my projected event discipline.
The Remainder of the Subject
5. 
Gonzaga (19-7)
6. 
Texas Tech (19-5)
7. 
Memphis (21-4)*
8. 
Louisville (19-6)
9. 
Mississippi State (17-7)
10. 
Dayton (17-8)
11. Texas (15-10) / Utah State (21-3)
12.
Excessive Level (22-5)*
13. 
McNeese (19-6)*
14. 
Akron (19-5)*
15. 
Cleveland State (18-8)*
16. 
Norfolk State (16-8)*
I’m larger on Gonzaga than most bracketologists, largely as a result of I imagine on this group’s expertise at their full potential. They seemed superb to start out the 12 months, routing Baylor and occurring to beat Indiana. A WCC tough patch has caught out like a sore thumb on their resume, however they are going to have the shot to come back again and beat all of the groups they misplaced to (they already acquired revenge on Oregon State!)
Gonzaga’s larger placement pushes down groups like Texas Tech, however that’s not a knock on the Purple Raiders in any respect. This group has been a shock contender within the Massive 12, however they began the season a little bit gradual. Is that this merely a sizzling streak or is Texas Tech right here to remain?
I’m additionally barely decrease on Mississippi State, however the loss to Butler stands proud like a sore thumb to me. Josh Hubbard has been nice, however I worry this group could also be upset inclined if seeded larger.
Dayton, Texas, and Utah State are all on the suitable aspect of the bubble to me. Dayton has had a combined bag of A10 outcomes, however their robust non-conference efficiency nonetheless holds weight in my e book. This can be a very gifted Texas group, so I feel they’ll get some additional possibilities to show themselves in comparison with among the extra stunning contenders. Utah State is a bit larger in lots of people’s fields, however the UC San Diego loss nonetheless stands proud and so they haven’t actually picked up a serious win to offset that. It will likely be exhausting with none true frontrunner within the Mountain West. Maybe the Aggies’ finest path is thru an autobid, however they nonetheless make the reduce for me right here.
There are a variety of robust mid-majors on this area; Excessive Level and McNeese might be threats for severe runs and even Akron and Cleveland State have peaked on the proper time. Can they stick with it?
West Area
The Prime 4
Alabama (21-3, #2 general)
Iowa State (19-5, #7 general)
Texas A&M (19-5, #10 general)
Michigan State (19-5, #15 general)
Alabama made a run to the Ultimate 4 final 12 months, and with Mark Sears again from that group, they’ve been one of the dominant squads within the nation. Among the many finest factors on their resume are key wins over groups like Houston, Texas A&M, and Illinois.
Iowa State has been simply 4-4 of their final 8, however their robust begin to the season has saved them excessive up on the seed checklist. They definitely have the expertise to remain on this spot: Keshon Gilbert and Tamin Lipsey are two of essentially the most well-rounded guards within the nation, excelling each offensively and defensively. I’ve little question they’ll end the season as robust as they began it.
Wade Taylor IV has introduced the Aggies to a brand new degree this 12 months. Like final 12 months, it was a gradual begin, as they dropped their first sport to UCF, however since then A&M’s resume has been close to spotless, with their greatest win coming towards Purdue.
Michigan State’s one other group that’s seen their rating drop a bit the final couple weeks after dropping 3 of their final 4, however they nonetheless make the reduce right here for me. I’d argue their powerful schedule has contributed to their losses, and Tom Izzo has saved them in each certainly one of these video games. The group nonetheless holds high quality wins over groups like UNC and Illinois.
The Remainder of the Subject
5. 
St. John’s (21-4)*
6. 
Wisconsin (19-5)
7. 
Oregon (17-8)
8. 
Clemson (20-5)
9. 
Arkansas (15-9)
10. 
St. Mary’s (22-4)*
11. 
New Mexico (21-4)*
12. 
UC San Diego (21-4)*
13. 
Northern Colorado (19-7)*
14. 
Central Connecticut State (18-6)*
15. 
Yale (15-6)*
16. 
Towson (17-9)*
A weak non-conference resume has prevented St. John’s from solidifying themselves as a prime 4 seed. Wins over UConn and Xavier (twice) have saved them shut. In the meantime, to me Wisconsin would have wanted to win a pair extra video games exterior their convention to be larger than this.
Arkansas has climbed their means again to the 9 line in my e book. Earlier this week they avenged their worst loss after they acquired payback towards LSU. That makes their 4th win within the final 6.
An enormous season from Donovan Dent has additionally pressured 21-win New Mexico onto the bracket. Would they be a 21-win group in a Energy 5 convention although? In all probability not.
That is amongst the weaker areas for mid-majors, however simply behind the ultimate at-large bids is #12 UC San Diego, who has not too long ago reclaimed the Massive West lead. At this fee, there’s a world the place each them and fellow 20-win squad UC Irvine each make the event.
East Area
The Prime 4
Duke (21-3, #3 general)* 
Tennessee (20-5, #6 general)
Arizona (17-7, #9 general)
Missouri (18-6, #13 general)
Cooper Flagg has been nearly every little thing Duke might have anticipated. It’s led the Blue Devils to their finest season since no less than 2019. The few video games they’ve misplaced have been to fellow blue bloods Kansas and Kentucky and their greatest ACC competitors in Clemson. The duo of Flagg and Tyrese Proctor have led Duke to roll by way of a lot of the ACC season and decide up big non-conference wins over Auburn and Arizona.
Tennessee was among the many remaining remaining undefeated groups within the nation after a dominant non-conference stretch that included wins over Baylor and Illinois. Their SEC season hasn’t been fairly to the identical commonplace, however they’ve definitely had their moments, and so they’ve taken care of enterprise towards non-tournament groups. Chaz Lanier and Zakai Zeigler have been nice, and so they’ll should hope the depth behind them can proceed to carry out as nicely.
The Wildcats involved many followers after they dropped 4 out of 5 video games to finish November, however it is a very totally different group than 3 months in the past. Arizona has shortly climbed their means again to elite standing, highlighted by an exciting win over Iowa State due to a Caleb Love half-court buzzer beater.
Missouri is one other SEC squad who has stacked up a reasonably robust resume as they’ve thrived within the face of powerful competitors. They made a press release by beating Kansas earlier than convention play and have adopted it up with a 7-4 SEC report.
The Remainder of the Subject
5. 
UConn (17-7)
6. 
Michigan (19-5)*
7. 
Maryland (19-6)
8. 
Oklahoma (16-8)
9. 
Nebraska (16-9)
10. 
BYU (16-8)
11. 
Drake (23-2)*
12. 
George Mason (20-5)*
13. 
Jacksonville State (17-8)*
14. 
Southern (15-9)*
15. 
Chattanooga (18-8)*
16. SE Missouri State (16-10)* / Omaha (16-11)*
Very similar to Gonzaga, my perception in UConn’s expertise has me inserting them larger than most bracketologists. They’ve additionally performed a lot of their Massive East season with out first-year ahead Liam McNeeley, who dropped 38 on Creighton in his second sport again to guide UConn to a much-needed victory. With McNeeley again wholesome, this group has the ceiling to beat anybody, however will their protection maintain up?
Michigan is one other group that slides down my rankings for groups like UConn and Gonzaga, however they might be a menace to make a run anyhow. This B1G powerhouse has been firing on all cylinders, highlighted by the success of their bigs Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf. The bigs have thrived beneath coach Dusty Could, who coached Goldin at FAU the final two years.
Drake is in an attention-grabbing place. Their straightforward convention schedule makes it troublesome to see in the event that they’d constantly succeed towards excessive degree competitors, however their 23-2 report has to carry some weight. George Mason is in the same scenario, with a powerful report atop the A10 however a weak non-conference resume. They no less than have Dayton and VCU of their convention.
Whoever wins the C-USA and SoCon normally poses a menace within the tourney, and we have now tight battles in each conferences this 12 months. Nonetheless, I don’t actually see the imaginative and prescient with the present leaders (Jacksonville State and Chattanooga). I see it as fairly seemingly different groups emerge within the convention tourneys, but when Jacksonville State or Chattanooga will get sizzling on the proper time, they might be attention-grabbing upset picks.
First 4 Out: Boise State, Indiana, Kansas State, TCU
These groups have all had a curler coaster of a season, however their tough losses have outweighed their large wins. If they will decide up a number of extra wins towards the groups above them down the stretch, they’ll have an opportunity to sneak into the sector. Kansas State particularly has been on a tear of late, can they preserve their profitable methods happening the stretch and power their means into the sector? Led by Coleman Hawkins and Dug McDaniel, they definitely have the expertise to take action.
Be happy to remark together with your ideas on all the above. We’ll should see how the committee’s opinions evaluate to my very own.
