It’s time for extra Smash or Cross, commerce deadline version! Within the run-up to the commerce deadline, we’ll check out some potential targets and focus on whether or not they make sense for the Pink Sox. First up: a power-hitting first baseman.
Who’s he and the place does he come from?
Josh Naylor was drafted in 2015 by the Miami Marlins with the twelfth general choose and has been concerned in a couple of notable trades since then. On the commerce deadline in 2016 he was despatched to San Diego alongside pitcher Luis Castillo in return for the immortal Andrew Cashner. On the 2020 deadline, San Diego traded Naylor to Cleveland together with a haul of prospects (Gabriel Arias, Joey Cantillo, Austin Hedges, Owen Miller, and Cal Quantrill) for, basically, Mike Clevinger. Earlier than the 2025 season, within the last yr of his contract, Naylor was moved to Arizona, the place he hits cleanup and mashes baseballs on a nightly foundation, in return for pitcher Slade Cecconi.
Is he accessible?
You’d must suppose so. The Diamondbacks enter play Wednesday with a 50-52 file. They’re six video games behind the ultimate Wild Card spot (within the loss column), and would want to move the Reds, Cardinals, Giants, and Padres to get there. Fangraphs provides them a 13% probability to make the playoffs. For the reason that Diamondbacks have quite a few gamers getting into free company, together with Naylor, Eugenio Suarez, Zac Gallen, and Merrill Kelly, in addition to some core gamers to construct round, it looks as if a no brainer for Arizona to “re-tool” for 2026.
Is he any good?
Offensively, he has been a difference-maker since 2022 as a power-hitting bat, together with his greatest season coming in 2024, when he hit 31 house runs and drove in 108 runs for Cleveland. This season, Naylor is hitting .293, and he additionally had a .308 common in 2023. Shockingly, Naylor is 11-for-13 stealing bases this yr, a profession excessive for a participant who has a 3rd percentile Dash Pace. His plate self-discipline has been nice this yr, with a 92nd percentile Ok-rate of 12.6% and a robust 9.5% BB-rate.
As a pull-heavy fly ball hitter, he’ll must come up with balls to place them out of Fenway to proper area. Naylor has averaged a robust 28 doubles a season since 2022, which might see an uptick if a couple of flyballs don’t attain the bullpen. All of his 11 house runs in 2025 are to middle and proper area, though in 2024, he dispersed his 31 bombs a bit extra.
Baseball Savant
Defensively, Naylor has a negative-3 OAA in 2025, which is within the 18th percentile. Nonetheless, he has dedicated simply 4 errors on the season, and Naylor was a optimistic in Outs Above Common in every of the earlier three seasons.
Why would he be a superb match for the Pink Sox?
He could be an ideal match, in my thoughts. Simply take a look at this conduct. Individuals will love Josh Naylor right here.
Watching this crew play evening after evening, it seems like they want one other power-hitting bat and first base is a place through which you expect to get some energy. Boston ranks 19th in home runs at 1B this season (13), and after they entered the season with Triston Casas manning the place, the hope was for significantly better than that. As a lot as I’ve appreciated the contributions of Abraham Toro, he has a .221 BA, 55 wRC+, and .042 ISO over the previous six weeks, and it’s a transparent spot that may use an improve.
Financially, the Red Sox can tackle Naylor’s remaining wage with no situation. You’ll have heard that they cleared some wage off the books again in June. Per @RedSoxPayroll on Twitter, the crew is currently at $247.7M, which is $13.3M away from the second Luxurious Tax threshold. Naylor has $3.5M prorated of a $10.9M wage remaining this season. Kelly has $2.2M remaining and Gallen has $4.3M remaining. A mixture of any two of those gamers wouldn’t threaten that threshold.
Why would he not be a superb match for the Pink Sox?
The one downside for Naylor is the truth that he hits left-handed. In his profession, Naylor hits for a .240 batting common with a .368 SLG vs. LHP, versus a .277 common and a .473 SLG vs. RHP. In 2025 solely, the break up is .259 (.362 SLG) vs. LHP, in opposition to .310 (.493 SLG) vs RHP.
What would it not price?
Of the 4 soon-to-be-free brokers talked about above (Suarez, Gallen, Kelly, and Naylor) it’s affordable to suppose that Naylor could be probably the most reasonably priced of the bunch. Suarez appears more likely to land with the Yankees or the Cubs. For as putrid of a season as Gallen is having, he and Kelly would in all probability fetch a robust return, as so few beginning pitchers with any type of observe file will likely be accessible. From 2022 to 2024, Gallen was 43-19 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP, together with two top-5 Cy Younger seasons. He has inexplicably put up a 5.58 ERA in 2025 over 21 begins, the worst ERA in all of MLB, whereas main the NL in house runs allowed. Kelly is 9-5 with a 3.32 over 21 begins, and sports activities a 3.76 profession ERA. If Boston goes to ship out certainly one of their prime 5 prospects, resembling Franklin Arias, Jhostynxon Garcia, or Luis Perales, Boston will in all probability attempt to commerce for both Kelly or Gallen, together with Naylor.
If Naylor is coming over as a single piece, I might suppose a participant from the following tier of prospects might land him. Utilizing Sox Prospects as a guide, a participant like James Tibbs, Connelly Early, or David Sandlin ought to all be MLB-ready inside a yr or so. Pairing certainly one of them with one other top-20 prospect appears affordable.
The Athletic listed Naylor because the #17 participant accessible on the commerce deadline on their “Huge Board” that was up to date right now. After seeing a free company interval through which Pete Alonso acquired 2 years for $54M, and Christian Walker acquired 3-for-$60M, first basemen are merely not in demand the identical manner they have been even three years in the past, particularly in the event that they don’t provide a lot defensively.
Smash or Cross?
Whereas I perceive that “pitching, pitching, pitching” is the very first thing on everybody’s thoughts, I’ve a sense that the price will likely be prohibitive to half with a prime prospect, or Jarren Duran, or Wilyer Abreu, until it’s for a controllable arm. If Joe Ryan is the return, then by all means, go nuts.
If the crew can add Josh Naylor as an enchancment at first base, in addition to get an arm within the subsequent tier, then I feel it can appear like a severe playoff contender. Luckily, Arizona has each of this stuff, and a Naylor/Kelly package deal makes lots of sense for Boston. Naylor has playoff expertise and has a severe little bit of “loopy” to him that I feel this crew would embrace down the stretch, and hopefully into the playoffs.
Smash!
