The Patriots will not be one participant away from changing into a perennial Tremendous Bowl contender.
However they’re one offseason away.
That is that offseason.
Behold, a plan to land an explosive vast receiver, make offensive line upgrades and signal new edge rushers to energy the Pats again to the Super Bowl.
The massive provide
Lengthen free-agent vast receiver Alec Pierce a 4-year, $104 million provide ($60 million assured)
Free company is an unreasonable, unpredictable market. As such, you’d be proper to shake your head at these phrases as a result of Pierce just isn’t value that contract primarily based on his previous efficiency. However as a 25-year-old big-play machine who ranks as one of the best participant at a premium position within a weak free-agent class?
You wager.
Subsequent week, Pierce’s camp can dictate phrases to groups that might in any other case be non-starters due to market circumstances. Right here, the Patriots provide phrases that might make him the Tenth highest-paid receiver by whole worth, fifteenth highest-paid by common annual worth and thirteenth highest-paid by whole assured cash. Fairly, fairly, fairly wealthy.
The case is easy: Pierce can declare he’s being paid like a top-10 receiver and outearn a participant like Nico Collins by all three metrics, which is notable given Collins’ 2024 extension affords a good template for Pierce’s subsequent contract. Each gamers are big-play threats and former Day 2 picks with one 1,000-yard season on the time of signing. For Pierce, this deal additionally tops one other 2024 extension signed by a (higher) participant and related vertical risk, DeVonta Smith, who now trails him in whole cash and common annual worth.
The Patriots, in the meantime, cease in need of guaranteeing Pierce extra cash than appreciably extra productive gamers like Smith and Jaylen Waddle. Additionally they lock him up for a fourth yr, yet one more than Smith and Collins agreed to on their latest extensions, whereas Pierce can nonetheless hit the market at age 30. The Patriots’ wager is Pierce lives as much as this contract in time, simply as Milton Williams has (up to now) made good on the $104 million free-agent deal they signed him to final spring.
However Mike Vrabel and Eliot Wolf will need to have a quantity the place they stroll away, maybe $110 million and/or $65-$70 million assured. As a result of Pierce could have suitors who’re downright determined, simply because the Patriots had been final yr once they saved elevating their provide for Williams till the Panthers, who reportedly believed they had been about to signal him, tapped out. In contrast to Williams, Pierce just isn’t a top-15 participant at his place, perhaps not even top-20, not to mention somebody worthy of a contract that makes him one of many 5 highest-paid.
The opposite distinction between every now and then is the Patriots’ cap margins are thinner, following all of the assured cash in large free-agent offers they handed out final spring and upcoming contract extensions for Christian Gonzalez and Drake Maye. As a downtrodden franchise coming off consecutive four-win seasons with greater than $130 million in cap room, final yr was the time to say “screw it,” and overpay. High free brokers in any other case weren’t coming to New England, the place the expertise pool had been left bone dry.
This offseason, coming off a Tremendous Bowl look with a franchise quarterback in place and the reigning Coach of the Yr, it’s time to make a terrific provide, and say take it or go away it. Making the leap from good staff to perennial contender is the toughest leap in team-building. You may’t afford to low cost out or repeat main monetary errors.
Welcome to the tightrope that’s contending within the NFL.
Plan B is for Brown
Patriots purchase: Eagles WR A.J. Brown, Fifth-round decide
Eagles purchase: 1st-round decide, 4th-round decide
OK, so Pierce as an alternative indicators in Las Vegas or Washington or wherever. What’s subsequent?
On to Philadelphia.
That is the blockbuster Patriots followers have been ready for, a deal that nets a real No. 1 receiver with no caveats or questions. Brown destroys man protection, threatens all three ranges of the sector and may rack up yards after the catch. He’s posted 1,000 receiving yards yearly of his profession besides an injury-shortened 2021 marketing campaign, and graded out as a top-10 receiver at Pro Football Focus every of the previous six seasons.
Notice: there aren’t any years assigned to the draft picks concerned on this commerce, which, within the combination would at a minimal web the trade value of a first-round decide between No. 26 and No. 29 general for the Eagles and maybe far more. Why not specify the draft yr as 2026 or 2027? Timing.
Ready to strike a deal after June 1 would considerably reduce the monetary ache for Philly, reworking a lack of roughly $20 million in cap room to a acquire of $7 million in cap area, per Over the Cap. The specter of that ache is a driving power behind GM Howie Roseman’s presently unserious asking value, as is the Eagles’ standing as a win-now staff.
The very fact the Patriots may wait till the summer time whereas groups just like the Payments, Ravens and Rams seemingly took themselves out of the working this week with different trades is a bonus till Philly counters with the very fact Vrabel and Wolf are working with a bottom-10 receiving corps. If the Pats and Eagles carry a staring contest into the summer time, the query then turns into Brown’s willingness to publicly put strain on the Eagles to get himself out of city. That’s perhaps the one factor that may stress Philly’s leverage, which in any other case is rock-solid partially as a result of Roseman has up to now proven he’s snug being uncomfortable every time Brown has made it identified he’s displeased with the Eagles’ offense.
Patriots 2026 NFL Mock Draft 1.0: Adding offensive firepower early
In any case, whether or not the groups attain phrases subsequent week, subsequent month or this summer time, this commerce ought to fulfill each side. The Eagles obtain a substantial bump over what the Seahawks acquired for D.Ok. Metcalf final yr, whereas the Patriots — who’ve a number of fourth-round picks in 2026 and 2027 — land the No. 1 receiver they so desperately want. And eventually, so far as first-round picks go, they both lose the second-worst choice of the primary spherical this spring or a future first-rounder they count on to land within the excessive 20s, if not No. 31 or No. 32 general, as a result of they simply added A.J. freaking Brown to an offense led by Drake Maye.
Sharpen the sides
Prioritize Jaelan Phillips, signal Boye Mafe and one in every of Arnold Ebikitie or Dre’Mont Jones
If Ok’Lavon Chaisson walks in free company, the Patriots’ edge move rushers will rank among the many worst within the NFL.
If Chaisson re-signs, edge rush will nonetheless be a serious want.
The Pats ought to plan to double-dip in free company and spend a excessive decide within the draft to replenish their expertise at premium place. Assuming Chaisson leaves for a serious payday elsewhere, Jaelan Phillips is our prime goal.
He is a 26-year-old who matches the Patriots’ short- and long-term imaginative and prescient for contending. Like Trey Hendrickson, Phillips could in the end value the Patriots out and power them to buy in a deep second tier of edge rushers (as some staff evaluators count on). However let’s stick with him anyway.
Final yr, Phillips posted an 18.8% move rush win fee, per PFF, the eighth-best mark amongst edge defenders. The checklist of gamers who ranked forward of him is a who’s who of the NFL’s greatest: Will Anderson, Myles Garrett, Aidan Hutchinson, Micah Parsons, Danielle Hunter, Josh Hines-Allen and Hendrickson. He averaged greater than a sack each two video games over his first three seasons earlier than a torn ACL and ruptured Achilles ended his 2023 and 2024 campaigns. He is since recovered, and asserted himself as top-of-the-line edge rushers in soccer.
If Phillips is off the board, Seahawks exterior linebacker Boye Mafe is a perfect match. Mafe is a relentless, persistently productive edge rusher who averaged 49 pressures per season during the last three years. At 6-foot-4 and 261 kilos, he boasts nice play energy and powerful run protection.
Projections for Mafe’s subsequent contract ($15 to $18 million per yr) fall in need of gamers like Phillips, Hendrickson and the extra inconsistent Odafe Oweh, financial savings that ought to enable the Patriots to signal a 2026 model of Chaisson.
Meet Arnold Ebikitie.
A former Falcons second-round decide, Ebikitie is an explosive pace rusher who fell behind two prime draft picks in Atlanta’s rotiation final yr and was restricted to 35% of the staff’s defensive snaps. Irrespective of. He gained 16.8% of his pass-rush snaps, in keeping with PFF, the Twelfth-highest mark within the league. Ebikitie additionally made an excellent impression in New England final November, when he recorded three pressures in defeat.
For his profession, he has two seasons with not less than six sacks. There’s untapped potential right here with the 6-foot-2, 250-pounder, who figures to signal a mid-level deal and maybe a flier contract as Chaisson did final offseason for $5 million.
If Ebikitie blows his market away, Dre’Mont Jones affords an ideal fallback possibility. He can rush inside and outside at 6-foot-3 and 281 kilos, and drew curiosity from the Patriots on the commerce deadline. Between stops in Tennessee and Baltimore, he totaled seven sacks and 24 QB hits.
The O-line repair
Covet Browns LG Joel Bitonio, put together an costly Plan B and draft a swing sort out
After buying and selling Garrett Bradbury to Chicago to clear room for Jared Wilson’s transfer again to protect, the Patriots want a veteran presence at left guard.
Enter Joel Bitonio.
Bitonio allowed simply two sacks in 686 pass-blocking snaps in Cleveland final season, per PFF, and would assist plug inside strain that plagued Maye within the postseason. Even at 34, he is nonetheless exceptionally sturdy, having performed not less than 15 video games in 10 of his 12 seasons. Bitonio crossed paths with Vrabel in Cleveland in 2024, when Vrabel labored instantly with the Browns’ offensive linemen.
Bitonio can be a longtime captain, somebody who can change the veteran management and mentorship Bradbury introduced a yr in the past. He is the best stopgap possibility between Wilson and Will Campbell, who might help groom a mid-round rookie down the street. On a short-term deal, Bitonio ought to provide related efficiency to top-of-the-market left guards and not using a punishing cap hit, even when the Pats should pony up near $10 million yearly.
If, nevertheless, the Pats need to spend at left guard, spare no expense for Alija Vera-Tucker. He is a extremely gifted 26-year-old with expertise at just about each place who’s greatest suited at left guard. He was PFF’s Tenth-highest graded guard in soccer throughout his final full season of 2024.
Well being is the one query with Vera-Tucker, however repeated torn triceps really feel extra like a case of unhealthy luck than being injury-prone. Lacking the 2025 season might be seen as a danger for his subsequent staff, or a buy-low alternative for a participant with authentic Professional Bowl potential.
To resolve their sort out issues, investing a Day 1 or Day 2 decide on a prospect who can function a swing sort out this season and develop right into a future starter at proper sort out would match the Patriots’ present timeline. Arizona State’s Max Iheanachor and Clemson’s Blake Miller might be targets late within the first spherical. Retaining Thayer Munford Jr. as a backup proper sort out/jumbo tight finish at $1.5 to $2 million yearly would additionally present strong insurance coverage at an excellent value.
Re-sign Hawkins, Tonga
It is a deep free-agent security class which helps the Patriots and hurts one in every of their greatest veterans on protection.
So, why not stage a reunion?
Jaylinn Hawkins is coming off a profession yr with indicators his manufacturing (4 interceptions, 1.5 sacks and 71 tackles) could not have been a flash within the pan. Hawkins is a perfect scheme and tradition slot in New England. He is succesful in protection, a powerful communicator and good tackler.
The Patriots may decide to pay high-end cash for Kansas Metropolis’s Bryan Prepare dinner or Seattle’s Coby Bryant, however there’s one thing to be mentioned for continuity, particularly at a strong worth. Hawkins continues to be simply 28. His market ought to land someplace between $7-10 million yearly, properly under the aforementioned gamers.
Any financial savings ought to then go to defensive sort out Khyiris Tonga, whom the staff almost prolonged in December, per sources. Sadly, the Patriots could not shut the hole in negotiations, and Tonga’s market has since grown. Nonetheless, it will be a shock to see him prime $6 million yearly. That is truthful sufficient for a No. 3 defensive sort out who can play most positions throughout the defensive position and brings the whole lot the Patriots need in a veteran; a participant the Pats additionally would possibly want to start out in a pinch, pending Christian Barmore’s future and authorized bother.
Elsewhere, Chaisson and backup tight finish Austin Hooper can stroll. Their replacements ought to come by way of the draft, or Mafe and Ebiktie in Chaisson’s case. Offensive sort out Vederian Lowe additionally matches in that class, however appropriate backups at left sort out are laborious to come back by. Linebacker Jack Gibbens is monitoring to hit restricted free company and deserves to be tendered at $3.5 million, or signed to a two-year contract that provides him higher stability as a defensive reserve and core particular teamer.
