As of this writing the Boston Purple Sox, winners of 4 World Collection championships since 2004 haven’t signed a single free agent for the 2026 season. They’ve, after all, made a number of trades however, however large query marks stay as we enter January, and Spring Coaching formally begins subsequent month. So what higher factor to do than take a couple of pictures in the dead of night on the efficiency of the (in)full roster Craig Breslow has assembled?
The Purple Sox play 31 video games in March/April with 5 coming in March (3 in opposition to the Cincinnati Reds and a couple of in opposition to the Houston Astros). However total issues appear to be this: Reds (3), Astros (3), Padres (3), Brewers (3), Cardinals (3), Twins (3), Tigers (4), Yankees (3), Orioles (3), Blue Jays (3).
That’s a really fast begin to issues with 6 playoff groups from 2025 and actually solely the Cardinals and Twins as any kind of break throughout an prolonged “first month” of the season. This breaks down into 4 pods of video games. Reds-Brewers you hope to play .500 or near it. Even 5-7 understanding the Brewers and Padres are powerful however the Astros and Reds are extra unsure. We’ll financial institution 5 wins right here. Then you definately wish to take 5 out of six in opposition to St. Louis and Minnesota in some mixture. Two wins in opposition to Detroit in the event you can keep away from Skubal? After which it’s the final group: the AL East. The Orioles are the complicating issue right here. They took such a step again in 2025 that it‘s laborious to think about them not recovering – plus they added Pete Alonso and a few pitching. However possibly 2024 set our expectations too excessive? Name it 4 wins out of 9. That’s 16 wins within the financial institution heading into…
There isn’t any break within the second full month of the season. The Purple Sox will face: Astros (3), Tigers (3), Rays (4), Phillies (3), Braves (3), Royals (3), Twins (3), Braves (3), Guardians (3) over 28 video games. Solely the Tigers, Phillies, and Guardians made the playoffs in 2025 however 6 video games in opposition to Atlanta, who will in all probability carry out significantly better than final yr, might make that 4 collection in opposition to playoff groups plus. The Royals and Astros have playoff aspirations themselves. The Rays are retooling and that may permit for a breath. Take 5 of the primary 10, 6 of the subsequent 12, and three of the final 2 collection. That’s 14 extra wins for a .500 month. And there could also be room to develop that whole in opposition to the Braves and Guardians, the latter with a serious lack of high-end expertise after their perennial All-Begin in José Ramírez.
The unofficial begin of summer season is Memorial Day and positive sufficient June brings a little bit room for warmth. Orioles (3), Yankees (3), Rays (3), Rangers (3), Blue Jays (3), Mariners (3), Rockies (3), Yankees (4), Nationals (2 of a 3-game set). Within the first 9 in opposition to the AL East it looks like 6 wins is within the playing cards. The O’s and Yankees must be good however so are the Purple Sox! The Rangers have fallen off lots since their 2023 championship and are kinda working out of steam, although they’ve expertise. The Rockies can be dangerous. Cal Raleigh received’t be hitting 60 dwelling runs. Go for 7 of 12 right here. Cut up the Yankees (2) and sweep the Nats (2 in June). That’s 17 wins and the Yankees are a very good matchup – there may be undoubtedly room in opposition to each them and the O’s.
This month is brief as a result of All-Star Break and ends with the Commerce Deadline so the primary few collection are key for the entrance workplace. That is the month to kick it into gear. Nationals (1), Angels (3), White Sox (3), Mets (3) – ASG – Rays (3), Orioles (3), Blue Jays (3), Athletics (4), Dodgers (1). I’m giving them 8 wins out of the primary 10 this month. The Angels are a large number. The White Sox are attention-grabbing however in all probability not considerably higher even with their additions, and the Mets are a large number (although if the add Kyle Tucker possibly knock on win down on this group). After the break although it’s a little bit extra unsure. We actually don’t know what the Orioles can be. And the A’s have a mixture of promise and catastrophe. Plus 4 video games in opposition to the 2025 World Collection champs. Name this 7 of 14. That’s 15 wins on the month. Hitting the deadline, we’re at 62 wins ands 48 losses. They began August with 59 wins and 51 losses in 2025. Each occasions 110 video games.
August continues with Dodgers (2), White Sox (3), A’s (3), Blue Jays (4), Pirates (3), Diamondbacks (3), Giants (3 – welcome again Raffy Devers!), Marlins (3), Yankees (3), Mariners (1). The plan right here is 5 of the primary 8, hope to overlook the most effective pitching from Pittsburgh and Arizona and snag 4 wins, after which will get a minimum of 5 of the ultimate 10. That’s one other 14. That’s 76 wins on the season heading into…
Boston finishes the Mariners (2), Orioles (4), Angels (3), Royals (3), Rangers (3), Rays (3), Guardians (3), Cubs (3). That’s 24 video games. Successful 12 of those will get the Sox to 88 wins. Taking 3 of the primary 6 is the first step. Then 5 of 9. Then 4 of 6 in opposition to Tampa and Cleveland. That’s your 12. With 3 video games in opposition to the Cubs which will or might not matter and also you want just one win to get to 89 once more. Two wins will get you to 90.
There’s clearly lots we don’t know but concerning the Purple Sox and the opposite groups. Remaining rosters. Accidents. Prospects and signings that simply don’t work out in yr one (a minimum of). However taking a fast take a look at the season and it’s not too laborious to get again to 89 wins. And a group like, say, the Rangers, might determine to blow all of it up if issues don’t get off sizzling. The Blue Jays are a very good group. However will Trey Yesavage be an ace? It’s too early to say. However with only a mild contact on each collection, this yr I’d be comfy placing 87-88 wins as the ground proper at this second kinda figuring there may be another extra bat.
