Earlier than the commerce deadline, Pink Sox followers waited on bated breath to see in the event that they acquired Joe Ryan, probably the greatest beginning pitchers in all of baseball. Throughout the chaos on the eleventh hour, the Pink Sox additionally acquired Dustin Might, a pitcher with an ERA close to 5, who considerably resembles Chucky from the horror film Little one’s Play (1988). Resulting from Might’s season line, the Dodgers’ willingness to commerce him, and his resemblance to a murderous doll, it’s simple to label the acquisition as a disappointment. If he doesn’t pitch nicely in his crew debut on Wednesday, he’ll seemingly change into the goal of much more ridicule.
Opposite to standard perception, when groups commerce for gamers, there are normally explanation why. Craig Breslow didn’t say, “We struck out on Ryan, let’s get whoever else is accessible to appease the followers.” The crew had a motive for his or her curiosity in Might and has a plan to (attempt to) get probably the most out of him. What’s the plan? Your guess is nearly as good as mine. Truly, it’s most likely not. I’ve a reasonably first rate success charge on analyzing these types of issues. So, if I haven’t offended you adequate to scare you off, let’s dive in.
Might is considerably of an enigma once you have a look at the numbers. Righties have hit simply .234 in opposition to him, whereas lefties have hit .253. On the identical time, he’s hanging out 24.6% of lefties and simply 17.1% of righties. He’s additionally strolling extra lefties (11.7% vs 6.4%).
A 17% strikeout charge isn’t almost excessive sufficient in opposition to same-handed hitters, in order that’s one place we’ll search for an adjustment. In two-strike counts in opposition to righties, Might goes to his sweeper 57% of the time, his four-seam 23%, and his sinker 20%. The sinker and sweeper return stable putaway charges; the four-seam doesn’t. The concept the Pink Sox hate four-seam fastballs is thrown round so much; you may anticipate them to get rid of Might’s four-seam consequently. That concept isn’t totally true, although. The Pink Sox hate unhealthy fastballs. By outcomes, Might’s is a foul one, however by form, it might work.
The pitch doesn’t have insane vertical motion, however his low launch creates a flat method angle that ought to enable him to overlook bats. The difficulty isn’t form, however somewhat location. Right here’s the place Might’s two-strike fastballs to righties landed.
With a flat method like his, the pitch ought to play on the high of the zone. With out watching every of the pitches, it’s exhausting to say if it’s a scarcity of intent or a scarcity of execution. He throws a number of sweepers off the plate, which might enable the straight fastball to freeze hitters on the skin edge, however to get swings and misses, Might ought to elevate the pitch.
On high of the fastball utilization, his sinker utilization may very well be tweaked barely as nicely. In a small pattern, Might hardly ever threw his sinker to the glove facet in opposition to righties. I sometimes don’t like backdoor pitches, however with the speed Might makes use of his sweeper with two strikes, the occasional backdoor sinker might freeze hitters and generate extra strikeouts. He’s proven the power to hit that spot in opposition to lefties, however hasn’t tried it in opposition to righties. Even outdoors of two-strike counts, it may be used to steal strikes and pitch in additional advantageous counts. Might might additionally profit from displaying the cutter extra typically, simply to present hitters an extra pitch to consider.
In opposition to lefties, the issue isn’t placing hitters away as a lot as it’s attending to two-strike counts. He has two pitches with a strike charge over 60% in opposition to left-handed hitters, his sinker and his cutter. Opponents are hitting .284 and .619 in opposition to them, respectively.
I don’t see an apparent path ahead right here, however I’d anticipate the Pink Sox to lean into his cutter and his four-seam. The cutter, specifically, confirmed flashes earlier in his profession in small samples, however he’s misplaced some horizontal motion since then. The pitch truly has extra arm-side motion, and the most effective cutters sometimes cross over in direction of the glove facet.
Brayan Bello leaned into his four-seam and added a cutter to throw extra strikes in opposition to lefties. Whereas Might doesn’t have a changeup or splitter, his arsenal is in any other case related. Might featured a changeup in 2022, although it was purely a chase pitch and never a dependable strike-getter. If he does deliver it again, it received’t essentially shrink his stroll charge, however it might assist maintain barrels off a few of his different choices.
General, I’m not offered on Dustin Might. There are some simple tweaks by way of pitch utilization that might increase his ceiling, however with two months to play, I don’t know that there’s sufficient time to institute massive modifications.
