Could Payton Tolle be the first ace developed by the Red Sox since Jon Lester?

May (insert pitching prospect right here) be the primary front-of-the-rotation arm that the Crimson Sox have drafted and developed since Jon Lester?

A query that I, and numerous others, have uttered hundreds of instances lately now applies to Payton Tolle. For the primary time, that query feels prefer it might be a “Sure,” final evening’s outcomes however. However what number of instances have we been reeled in by that risk over the past 20 years?

Jon Lester performed the primary 9 seasons of a 16-year large league profession with the Crimson Sox, debuting in 2006 and getting traded in 2014 to Oakland, for a two-month stint that helped carry the A’s to the playoffs. Lester then spent six seasons with the Cubs earlier than a forgettable closing season in 2021 with the Nationals and the Cardinals. In that point, he received three World Sequence titles, an NLCS MVP, and made 5 All-Star groups. He amassed a cumulative 43.5 bWAR in his profession, 29.9 of which got here with the Crimson Sox.

We at the moment are creeping up on 20 years because the Crimson Sox drafted and developed a front-of-the-rotation beginning pitcher, and admittedly, nobody has even come near that designation. I got here up with 15 names that would have been “The Subsequent Lester” (some with larger expectations than others). Probably the most profitable of anybody in that group is Justin Masterson, who tallied 10.0 profession WAR. The record is usually an extended line of pitchers who shifted to reduction roles within the minor leagues, or shortly after making the most important leagues, in addition to pitchers with a ton of Tommy John surgical procedures.

Some would say that Clay Buchholz ought to rely. Buchholz got here up in 2007, threw a no-hitter that September, and spent ten seasons with the Crimson Sox, pitching within the rotation for his or her 2013 World Sequence title. If you wish to rely Clay, you’ll be able to, and amend this record to “since 2007”. I wouldn’t, personally, however I perceive the argument.

Daniel Bard – Drafted 2006 (Spherical 1), Debuted 2009

BOS bWAR 4.1, Profession bWAR 8.3. Profession ERA 3.74, 408 Video games (10 GS)

Initially seen as a starter, Bard transitioned to a reduction function within the minors in 2008, earlier than a 2009 debut with the Crimson Sox, the place he put up a 2.88 ERA over his first three seasons. Bobby Valentine inexplicably shifted Bard to a beginning pitcher in 2012, the place he misplaced his velocity, put up a 6.22 ERA, and walked extra batters than he struck out. The management points led to Bard being out of the large leagues for six+ years, at instances pitching in impartial ball, earlier than a return to the Colorado Rockies, saving 61 video games in 4 seasons from 2020-2023. Bard introduced his retirement in July of this 12 months.

Justin Masterson – Drafted 2006 (Spherical 2), Debuted 2008

BOS bWAR 2.9, Profession bWAR 10.0. Profession ERA 4.31, 258 Video games (184 GS)

To not be confused with Gasoline Masterson (Eck-speak for a hard-throwing pitcher) or Stats Masterson (Eck-speak for Alex Speier), Justin Masterson threw 160 innings with the Crimson Sox earlier than being moved on the commerce deadline in 2009 to Cleveland for Victor Martinez. He put collectively a good profession, logging 180+ innings in 4 consecutive seasons as a starter for Cleveland, and was an All-Star in 2013, earlier than ending his profession again in Boston in 2015.

Casey Kelly – Drafted 2008 (Spherical 1), Debuted 2012 (with SDP)

Profession bWAR -1.1, Profession ERA 5.34, 30 Video games (12 GS)

Probably the most surprising factor that I discovered whereas researching this piece is that Casey Kelly pitched in the Major Leagues this season for the Arizona Diamondbacks. As soon as the highest pitching prospect for the Sox, Kelly was moved together with Anthony Rizzo to San Diego, in return for Adrian Gonzalez. Kelly handled elbow accidents and made solely a handful of appearances within the large leagues between 2012 and 2018, for the Padres, Braves, and Giants. His biggest success occurred in Korea, pitching for the LG Twins from 2019-2023. The 35-year-old Kelly threw 5 1/3 innings a 12 months in the past for the Reds and 1 2/3 for the Diamondbacks this season, and is presently at Triple-A.

Anthony Ranaudo – Drafted 2010 (Spherical 1S), Debuted 2014

BOS bWAR -0.2, Profession bWAR -1.6, Profession ERA 7,01, 20 Video games (14 GS)

Ranaudo made seven begins on the depressing 71-91 Crimson Sox staff of 2014, going 4-3 with a 4.81 and a (checks notes) … 3.4 Okay/9 fee. He was traded to Texas earlier than the 2015 season for Robbie Ross, who then traded him to the White Sox in 2016. Ranaudo threw 86 profession innings with a 7.01 ERA.

Brandon Workman – Drafted 2010 (Spherical 2), Debuted 2013

BOS bWAR 3.3, Profession bWAR 2.6. Profession ERA 4.02, 238 Video games (18 GS)

Workman’s rookie season was on the 2013 World Sequence staff, showing in 20 video games (3 begins) and going 6-3 with a 4.97 ERA. Workman’s most notable second that 12 months was when supervisor John Farrell didn’t perceive what a double-switch was in an NL park, and he got a World Series at-bat, his first profession at-bat within the large leagues. It didn’t go effectively. After having Tommy John surgical procedure in 2015, Workman had one of many nice out-of-nowhere reduction seasons in Crimson Sox historical past in 2019. He went 10-1 with a 1.88 ERA in 73 appearances, saving 16 video games, and putting out 104 batters in 71 2/3 innings.

Matt Barnes (Drafted 2011, Spherical 1), Debuted 2014

BOS bWAR 4.4, Profession bWAR 4.2. Profession ERA 4.21, 467 Video games (3 GS)

Barnes was a starter for everything of his time within the minor leagues however made simply two begins in his 2015 rookie season, and was a reliever for the remainder of his time within the main leagues. He had 110 strikeouts in 64 1/3 innings in 2019, which comes out to an other-worldly 15.4 Okay/9. There isn’t any pitcher with 10+ innings in 2025 who has that Okay-rate, in all of baseball. Barnes was an All Star in 2021, saving 24 video games earlier than getting injured after which carrying down late within the season. He was final seen pitching for Washington in 2024.

Henry Owens (Drafted 2011 – 1S), Debuted 2015)

BOS bWAR 0.1, Profession ERA 5.19, 16 Video games (16 GS)

As Owens rose up by means of the Crimson Sox system, I believed he was going to be the Ace of a younger pitching workers of the long run. The Crimson Sox had traded for pitching prospects Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa from the Dodgers within the Gonzalez/Crawford/Beckett Wage Dump of 2012. Owens, Webster, and De La Rosa had been going to be the brand new Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz. Owens received 16 begins in 2015-2016 and had hassle getting the ball over the plate, with a 44:71 BB:Okay ratio over 85 innings. He was waived after the 2017 season and by no means made it again to the Bigs. Webster made 23 profession begins and had a 6.03 profession ERA (6.25 with Boston). De La Rosa made 70 profession begins and had a 4.49 ERA (4.54 with Boston). I was way off!

Brian Johnson (Drafted 2012, Spherical 1), Debuted 2015

BOS bWAR 1.0, Profession ERA 4.74, 65 Video games (26 GS)

Brian Johnson was going to be Boston’s Steve Avery, behind Owens, Webster, and De La Rosa. He threw a shutout in 2017 after which made 13 begins for the World Champion 2018, with a 4-5 document. Johnson completed his profession with a 4.74 ERA, final pitching in 2019.

Trey Ball (Drafted 2013, Spherical 1), didn’t attain MLB

Ball was the seventh general choose in 2013 out of highschool and easily by no means put it collectively within the minor leagues. His fastball velocity diminished, he struggled to get swing-and-misses, and by no means had a Okay-BB% of upper than 10% at any stage within the minor leagues. His final season at Double-A was in 2018 earlier than being let go by the Crimson Sox.

Michael Kopech (Drafted 2014, Spherical 1), Debuted 2018 (CWS)

BOS bWAR 6.1, Profession ERA 4.13, 179 Video games (60 GS)

Kopech reached Excessive-A with Boston in 2016 earlier than he was traded after the season, together with Yoan Moncada and others, in return for Chris Sale. He debuted in 2018 however had his season lower brief by Tommy John Surgical procedure, which took away his 2019 season as effectively. Kopech opted out of the pandemic season earlier than returning as a beginning pitcher with the White Sox for 56 begins from 2021-2023. Now a reliever, Kopech received a World Sequence with the Dodgers in 2024 and has a 1.15 ERA in 33 appearances there over the past two years, regardless of arm and knee accidents.

Jay Groome (Drafted 2016, Spherical 1), didn’t attain MLB

Groome’s path by means of the minor leagues was rocky in Boston, after which received rockier elsewhere. Groome was listed #1 on some pre-draft lists, however fell to the twelfth choose to Boston on account of alleged signability issues. Between arm accidents and inconsistencies on the mound, Groome’s inventory had fallen and he was traded to San Diego for Eric Hosmer on the 2022 commerce deadline. After sporting an 8.55 ERA in 135 innings at Triple-A in 2023, Groome was suspended for a 12 months for betting on baseball early in 2024. The Padres launched him in 2025.

Bryan Mata (Signed 2016, Worldwide FA), At the moment in AAA

Signing in early 2016, Mata nonetheless appeared on Prime-30 prospect lists in 2024, his ninth 12 months within the Crimson Sox system. Nonetheless in Triple-A in 2025, Mata has a 5.20 ERA in 62 1/3 innings. He has a 12.4 Okay/9 but in addition a 5.5 BB/9, and is the management points which have saved him from reaching the minors. It might be nice to see the 26-year-old Mata get a cup of espresso on the main league stage, whether or not that’s in Boston or elsewhere.

Tanner Houck (Drafted 2017, Spherical 1), Debuted 2020

BOS bWAR 7.9, Profession ERA 3.97, 113 Video games (80 GS)

A recap might be not vital with Houck. An All-Star in 2024, Houck can be out for many or all of 2026 with Tommy John surgical procedure and can have one arbitration season remaining for 2027 earlier than turning into a free agent. It’s not inconceivable to suppose that Houck might be a non-tender candidate this offseason.

Noah Tune (Drafted 2019, Spherical 4), At the moment in AA

Together with Mata, Tune is the one minor leaguer whom I might like to see get a shot within the large leagues sometime. Regardless that he’s now 28 years previous, Tune has had a path by means of the minor leagues that may be in comparison with only a few different prospects. Drafted in 2019, Tune threw 17 innings at Low-A earlier than fulfilling his commitments with the U.S. Navy in energetic responsibility from June of 2020 by means of February of 2023. The Phillies chosen Tune within the Rule 5 draft, the place he threw 32 innings earlier than being waived and returned to the Crimson Sox. Tune had Tommy John surgical procedure and missed the 2024 season, however is now at Double-A and has thrown a mixed 48 innings for the Crimson Sox minor leagues this season with a 3.19 ERA.

Payton Tolle (Drafted 2024, Spherical 2), Debuted 2025

His meteoric rise by means of the minor leagues in his first season of professional ball was a sight to behold, as he hit the bottom working at each new stage that he reached. Between 4 ranges (Excessive-A, AA, AAA, and MLB) Tolle is now at 90 innings on the season. He had a 3.04 ERA and a 36.5 Okay% within the minor leagues this season and received the decision previous to the September 1st deadline, as a way to be eligible for the postseason. The staff is being cautious together with his days of relaxation between begins, to remain in keeping with what he did within the minor leagues this season however there isn’t a “cap” to his innings that has been reported but, if the staff does make it to October.

It’s refreshing to see the staff use him on the large league stage whereas he’s on a roll, and use the bullets in his arm for a postseason run relatively than save them for the unknown sooner or later. Maybe Tolle, alongside Luis Perales, Kyson Witherspoon, Connelly Early, and David Sandlin, is usually a lockdown beginning 5 for years to come back. The chances are stacked in opposition to them (see: earlier 2,000 phrases). For Payton Tolle to be a workhorse lefty for the subsequent decade with this staff, I’m optimistic.