New England Patriots
If the Patriots wind up enjoying within the Wild Card Spherical, there are three groups they may probably face.
We all know that the Patriots are going again to the postseason, however we don’t know a lot about their path past that.
The 13-3 Patriots have secured the AFC East title and maintain the AFC’s No. 2 seed coming into their Week 18 matchup in opposition to the Dolphins. Nonetheless, the Patriots can nonetheless find yourself with the AFC’s No. 1 seed, which might give them a first-round bye and home-field benefit till the Tremendous Bowl.
What we do know, although, is that there are solely three groups the Patriots might probably face in the event that they wind up enjoying within the Wild Card Spherical. So, let’s take a more in-depth have a look at the Patriots’ seeding situations coming into Week 18, and the way they could stack up in opposition to their potential opening spherical opponents.
Patriots’ seeding situations
How Patriots might get No. 1 seed: There are a few other ways wherein the Patriots can get the No. 1 seed. The best is for them to win and for the Broncos to lose to the Chargers. They will additionally get the No. 1 seed in the event that they win and the Broncos tie, or if the Patriots tie and the Broncos lose.
How Patriots might get No. 2 seed: The Patriots would safe at the very least the No. 2 seed with a victory or a tie on Sunday. If the Broncos beat the Chargers, they’ll be locked into the No. 2 spot. The Patriots would additionally get the No. 2 seed in the event that they lose and the Jaguars lose or tie in opposition to the Titans.
How Patriots might get No. 3 seed: The Patriots can solely drop within the AFC standings in the event that they lose and the Jaguars win on Sunday.
Analyzing Patriots’ potential opening spherical opponents.
If the Patriots wind up lacking out on getting the No. 1 seed, there are three groups they may probably face within the opening spherical: the Payments, Chargers, and Texans. Right here’s a bit extra on how the Patriots stack up in opposition to every of these groups.
Buffalo Payments
The Payments are the one certainly one of these three groups that the Patriots confronted this season. In fact, they break up the season collection, with the Patriots successful by three at Orchard Park in October earlier than the Payments got here again from a 21-0 deficit to win the sport at Foxborough in December.
Payments quarterback Josh Allen is likely to be the most effective participant within the AFC playoff bracket, even when he’s coping with a foot harm that’s clearly impacted his play over the past couple of weeks. He hasn’t been superb in opposition to the Patriots this yr, however he positively hasn’t been dangerous. He threw for 253 yards and rushed for 53 yards within the first recreation in opposition to the primary Patriots, throwing a pricey interception within the second half of that recreation. His yardage wasn’t nice within the second assembly (193 passing yards, 48 speeding yards). Nonetheless, Allen threw three touchdowns in that recreation and seemed to be in full command within the second half.
Past Allen, operating again James Prepare dinner would most likely be the Patriots’ greatest fear in the event that they tackle the Payments within the postseason. Prepare dinner gashed the Patriots’ protection in Week 15, speeding for 107 yards on 4.9 yards per carry and two touchdowns in that recreation. However New England was with out standout defensive sort out Milton Williams and main tackler Robert Spillane in that recreation. When the Patriots had the 2 gamers out there within the Week 5 matchup, Prepare dinner rushed for simply 49 yards on 3.3 yards per carry.
Flipping it round, we noticed how nicely the Patriots might run in opposition to the Payments’ protection in Week 15. Which may not be an anomaly, both. Buffalo’s twenty ninth in rush protection and has allowed the second-most yards per carry (5.3) this season. So, possibly TreVeyon Henderson can have one other massive day in opposition to the Payments if the Patriots meet up with them within the postseason after going for 148 yards within the Week 15 loss.
Drake Maye didn’t throw a landing cross in both recreation in opposition to the Payments this season, however he seemed to be in command for an excellent portion of each video games. He threw for 273 yards within the Week 5 win, main the Patriots to a game-winning drive within the remaining minutes. He had a few speeding touchdowns within the second matchup. Nonetheless, he solely had 155 passing yards as he accomplished simply 5 of 12 passes for 47 yards within the second half of that recreation.
Contemplating that each video games have been determined by 4 factors or fewer, a possible rubber match between the Patriots and Payments would possibly actually be a toss-up.
How Patriots would face Payments in opening spherical:
- Patriots win, Broncos win, and Payments lose in Week 18 OR
- Patriots lose, Broncos win, Payments win, Jaguars win, and Texans win
Los Angeles Chargers
The final time the Patriots confronted the Chargers, Los Angeles basically put the Jerod Mayo period in New England to mattress. The Chargers dominated the Patriots, 40-7, within the penultimate recreation of New England’s 2024 season. Maye threw for simply 117 yards in that recreation, though he briefly departed to get checked for a concussion.
A yr later, and issues are a lot totally different in New England. Issues are additionally totally different with the Chargers, however they’re largely health-related. The Chargers are with out their beginning offensive tackles, with Rashawn Slater struggling a season-ending harm in coaching camp, whereas Joe Alt went down for the yr in November.
That’s triggered the Chargers’ offensive line to take a serious step again in 2025. Professional Soccer Focus has Los Angeles’ offensive line because the second-worst offensive line unit within the NFL coming into Week 18.
Going up in opposition to a battered Chargers’ offensive line can be one of many extra favorable matchups for the Patriots’ protection. New England’s entrance seven hasn’t been super this yr, to say the least. It’s tied for twenty third in sacks this yr and has allowed its opponent’s beginning operating again to go for at the very least 100 speeding yards in every of the final three video games.
Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert can be banged up. He lately underwent surgical procedure to repair a fracture in his non-throwing hand. Whereas Herbert hasn’t missed enjoying time as a result of harm, he’s had plenty of additional safety on his left arm in latest weeks.
Herbert has had a reasonably good season, throwing for 3,727 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. However he’s had some struggles in latest weeks, throwing for 885 yards, 5 touchdowns, and three interceptions within the 4 video games since he underwent surgical procedure. So, a matchup in opposition to a hampered Herbert wouldn’t be dangerous for a Patriots protection that ranks twenty sixth in passing defensive DVOA.
As for the Chargers’ protection, they may current some issues for Maye and the Patriots’ passing assault. They’re sixth in passing protection and passing protection DVOA. They’re additionally tied for Tenth in sacks, whereas opposing quarterbacks have logged a league-worst 74.8 passer score.
How Patriots would face Chargers in opening spherical:
- Patriots win, Payments win, and Chargers lose OR
- Patriots lose, Jaguars win, Payments lose, Chargers win, and Texans lose
Houston Texans
The Texans may need the singular finest unit of any crew within the AFC facet of the playoff bracket.
Houston’s protection ranks among the many finest within the league in a number of metrics. It ranks first in whole and scoring protection. It’s fourth within the league in passing yards and speeding yards allowed. It’s second in defensive DVOA, rating first in passing protection DVOA. It’s fifth in sacks and fourth in takeaways, whereas rating second in opponents’ passer score.
So yeah, that may be a probably daunting matchup for Maye with an offensive line and ability place group that isn’t spectacular. However Maye did present some shiny spots in opposition to this Texans protection when he made his first profession NFL begin in opposition to them final season, throwing for 243 yards and three touchdowns. However he additionally had three turnovers.
Even with Maye enjoying at a excessive degree this season, the Texans’ protection has confirmed that they’ll decelerate the most effective of the most effective. Matthew Stafford, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Justin Herbert all did not put up 20 factors in opposition to this Texans protection in 2025.
However there’s a motive why the Texans are unlikely to win their division. Their offensive manufacturing hasn’t come anyplace near matching their defensive manufacturing. The Texans rank twentieth in whole offense, sixteenth in scoring offense, and twenty first in offensive DVOA.
An enormous motive for the Texans’ lack of high-end offensive manufacturing is their offensive line. They rank thirtieth in cross block win price (55.4 %) and thirty second in run block win price (68.3 %), whereas PFF ranks the Texans’ offensive line because the Tenth-worst within the league.
Similar to with the Chargers, a matchup in opposition to the Texans might enable the Patriots’ underwhelming front-seven to have an honest efficiency within the postseason. Houston’s run recreation has additionally suffered on account of the poor offensive line play, twenty fourth in speeding yards and twenty eighth in yards per try.
Any key to beating the Texans is likely to be to restrict the variety of explosive performs they’ll create. They’ll doubtless have the worst play success price (40.7 %) amongst all groups within the postseason, however the Patriots rank nineteenth in defensive play success price (44.4 %).
The Texans confirmed final week in opposition to the Chargers that they solely want a few explosive performs so as to win, getting two lengthy landing passes early on. Nico Collins has been one of many prime vast receivers within the NFL this yr (sixth in receiving yards), so Houston actually has potential to pop. Nonetheless, C.J. Stroud hasn’t been super at throwing the ball down the sphere. His passer score on deep and intermediate passes ranks twentieth or worse.
How Patriots would face Texans in opening spherical:
- Patriots lose, Texans lose, Payments lose, Chargers lose, Jaguars win
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