The final time the Patriots performed in Cincinnati, they gained as landing underdogs.
On Sunday, they’ll attempt to preserve the Bengals from doing the identical.
The Pats are slated as 7-point favorites Sunday as they chase their tenth win of the season and attempt to take one other step towards the highest seed within the AFC. The thriller surrounding Cincinnati’s quarterback state of affairs threw a late wrench right into a matchup between one of many NFL’s hottest groups and considered one of its worst. The Bengals are 3-7, having misplaced seven of their final eight and allowed a league-worst 33.4 factors per sport.
However Joe Burrow isn’t coming to save lots of them. Burrow won’t play Sunday, leaving Joe Flacco to make his sixth begin for Cincinnati this season. Flacco is simply 1-4, however his particular person numbers place him among the many league’s greatest quarterbacks throughout that stretch.
As Cincinnati has tumbled down the standings, Drake Maye’s MVP marketing campaign has skyrocketed, and a porous Bengals protection ought to solely assist his case. That’s, if the Patriots don’t permit for a letdown.
Right here’s what to look at for in Cincinnati:
When the Patriots run
Rhamondre Stevenson is anticipated to play after lacking three video games with a toe harm, and he couldn’t have timed his return any higher. The Bengals’ run protection is by far the softest within the AFC.
Cincinnati has allowed greater than 100 speeding yards in each sport since its season opener, together with two of the final three the place they gave up 250-plus. The Bengals rank second-worst towards the run by the opponent-and-situation-adjusted metric DVOA, partly due to a excessive missed sort out price. Even when Stevenson has to shake off somewhat rust first, rookie TreVeyon Henderson has hit his stride, and statistically is now operating at a full dash.
Henderson scored three touchdowns and broke 4 tackles final week versus the Jets, and stays a menace to interrupt a future each time he touches the ball. Henderson’s greatest rushes proceed to return off-tackle, the place the Bengals are permitting six yards per carry, per Sports activities Data. Options. Count on the Pats to check Cincinnati by placing Henderson and different elusive gamers in area all through the sport.
When the Patriots move
The Pats’ premier deep menace is again after lacking two video games with a hamstring harm. Boutte ought to return to his beginning spot at X receiver, which is able to imply fewer snaps for rookie Kyle Williams and maybe DeMario Douglas. Stefon Diggs figures to kick inside to the slot, the place he ought to do harm towards the NFL’s worst quick move protection by DVOA. Douglas is an alternative choice, particularly on screens.
And when Maye isn’t concentrating on his receivers, the tight ends and safeties can have loads of favorable matchups. Cincinnati ranks among the many worst groups within the league at defending these positions, which opens the door to potential massive video games for Henderson and Hunter Henry. Of word: The Pats are additionally welcoming again No. 2 tight finish Austin Hooper, who not too long ago recovered from a concussion.
With out Professional Bowl defensive finish Trey Hendrickson (hip harm), the Bengals’ move protection ought to be at a loss versus Maye and Co. No different Cincinnati move rusher has greater than three sacks, and cornerback DJ Turner II is the protection’s solely respectable participant in protection, although security Jordan Battle does have three interceptions.
When the Bengals run
One of many extra underrated operating backs within the league calls Cincinnati residence. However the query is: can the Bengals preserve the rating shut sufficient to proceed handing the ball off to Chase Brown?
Brown is the face of one of many NFL’s greatest run offenses by superior metrics, regardless of averaging simply 4.1 yards per carry. He’s totaled 519 speeding yards and two touchdowns, together with a 99-yard efficiency final weekend at Pittsburgh. Brown ought to take the lion’s share of carries once more, with veteran backup Samaje Perine dominated out.
Cincinnati’s biggest speeding power is in short-yardage, the place they’re second solely to the Chiefs this season by success price. The Bengals are additionally hardly ever stuffed for no achieve, which means the Patriots should rally and sort out properly to cease Brown. Final week, they missed simply three tackles towards the run-heavy Jets.
The Pats will little question miss injured defensive sort out Milton Williams, who was positioned on injured reserve this week with an ankle harm. In his place, count on Khyiris Tonga to get promoted to the beginning lineup and backup defensive tackles Cory Durden and Joshua Farmer to play a bigger position, plus ex-Bengals rookie Eric Gregory, who made his Patriots debut earlier this month.
When the Bengals move
The place is Tee Higgins?
That query might be high of thoughts for each Patriots defensive again with fellow star receiver Ja’Marr Chase out attributable to a one-game suspension. The 6-foot-4 Higgins is a deep menace who’s additionally able to boxing out corners in tight areas, together with the purple zone. Count on the Bengals to maneuver him across the formation, together with bunch units, so Higgins can have an opportunity to separate rapidly in several route ideas.
The Patriots will possible shadow Higgins with Christian Gonzalez at the least on a part-time foundation, contemplating no different Bengals pass-catcher who might be lively Sunday has greater than 256 yards. If the Pats include Higgins, Cincinnati’s solely different outs are operating the ball and attacking the quick space of the sphere through slot receiver Andrei Iosivas, athletic tight finish Noah Fant and Chase Brown. That can, in fact, additionally rely on how a lot strain the Pats can generate with out Williams, particularly up the center the place most defenses attempt to disrupt pocket-bound passers like Flacco.
Talking of Flacco, he owns one of many highest checkdown charges within the league amongst beginning quarterbacks. If the Pats can sort out properly when he dumps the ball off, they need to be capable to draw back.
Recreation choose
Patriots 40, Bengals 23
