It’s time for some dwelling cooking.
After three straight street video games, the Patriots will kick off in Gillette Stadium for the primary time since their four-game win streak started with a blowout of the Panthers in late September. Since then, the Pats have established themselves as one of many higher groups within the league and an AFC playoff contender. For that, they’ll thank Drake Maye, who leads the league in completion proportion and deep passing, and has introduced himself as an early-season MVP candidate.
However greater assessments loom, beginning with a top-5 Browns protection this Sunday. Regardless of its 2-5 report, Cleveland can throw some punches by one of many fiercest defensive strains in soccer. Myles Garrett and Co. clowned Miami final weekend, 31-6, and may now drive Maye to play good, disciplined soccer or in any other case threat turnovers that may invite an upset.
Reverse Maye, the Browns are beginning third-round rookie Dillon Gabriel, whose completion proportion is a tick beneath 60% regardless of throwing the shortest completions within the league by air yards. Whereas that sounds inviting, Gabriel hasn’t thrown an interception but this yr, and the Patriots’ quick move protection at the moment ranks third-worst within the league by DVOA. Can they repair that and rating one other blowout Sunday?
Right here’s what to observe for in Foxboro:
When the Patriots run
A repeat 175-yard speeding efficiency from final week? Unlikely.
However all of the Patriots should do is tread water towards the NFL’s finest run protection to present Maye sufficient time and motive to make use of play-action. Rhamondre Stevenson broke seven tackles final weekend in Tennessee, operating extra freely than he had been the earlier two weeks. The Browns’ protection is the most effective tackling unit within the league, per Professional Soccer Focus, but when the teaching workers has extra confidence in rookie TreVeyon Henderson, maybe he can lastly break away and easily draw back from would-be tacklers.
Henderson’s elite pace has but to be totally weaponized on this offense on account of his personal errors and lack of touches. He has simply 56 speeding yards this month. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels hinted this week the second-round choose could be extra concerned, after enjoying simply 9 offensive snaps final weekend.
“Runners get right into a rhythm,” McDaniels stated Thursday. “And typically that occurs. I do know TreVeyon has led us in carries in different video games, and definitely Rhamondre did final week. So, there’s nothing particular. I believe all these guys are persevering with to work actually onerous. They play an energetic function in us enhancing ourselves within the operating sport.”
When the Patriots move
If Drake Maye checks the ball down a bit quicker Sunday, because of this.
The Browns’ most direct path to an upset entails a strip sack or two, and Maye, who acquired hit a couple of too many instances in Tennessee, can be further conscious of the move rush this week. Garrett has 5 sacks this season, regardless of going through extra chips and double-teams than every other move rusher within the league. Browns defensive deal with Maliek Collins can be among the many league leaders in strain price at his place.
Each Garrett and Collins ought to see loads of 1-on-1 alternatives towards rookie offensive linemen Will Campbell and Jared Wilson on Sunday, a serious battleground Sunday. The Patriots can attempt to offset that strain with screens, misdirection and fast passing. However finally it’s as much as Maye to tug the proper lever and eliminate the ball earlier than hassle arrives.
“Simply be cognizant of the purpose of the play, (be) good in fast sport, (be) good after we try to carry it a bit longer. Simply know the retailers,” Maye stated. “We speak about retailers, scramble, throwaways and simply being good with the soccer. They do an excellent job of going after the soccer, particularly Myles in his profession. Simply go two arms on it, understanding the retailers and understanding when the play could also be over.”
One enjoyable battle on the skin: Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte versus Professional Bowl cornerback Denzel Ward. If the Browns proceed to play a excessive price of man-to-man protection, as they’ve a lot of the yr, Diggs and Boutte could have alternatives to make performs 1-on-1 downfield. And also you higher imagine Maye will give them an opportunity to go deep and catch one.
When the Browns run
Few operating backs are breaking as many tackles proper now as bruising Browns rookie Quinshon Judkins.
Judkins is forcing three and a half misses per sport, in keeping with PFF, and can check the Patriots’ newly refortified tackling. The Pats have whiffed simply 5 instances the final two weeks mixed, and know that slowing the 221-pound Judkins can be crucial towards one of many NFL’s least explosive offenses attempting to methodically kill clock by small good points.
“I do know that they’ll have an excellent plan for the way they need to run it. It’s a bodily group of linemen and their tight ends are blocking properly,” Vrabel stated this week. “And Quinshon is operating onerous, bodily. So, they’ve performed a pleasant job.”
On the season, Judkins has rushed for 467 yards and 5 touchdowns whereas averaging 4.3 yards per carry. No different Browns participant has taken greater than 25 carries this season or rushed for 75 yards.
When the Browns move
It’s all concerning the center of the sphere.
The Browns’ high targets have been their tight ends, between rookie Harold Fannin (32 catches, 290 yards) and David Njoku (23 catches, 223 yards). Whereas Njoku was restricted this week in follow, the Browns ought to check the Patriots’ Thirtieth-ranked quick move protection by DVOA by their tight ends and veteran receiver Jerry Jeudy. Gabriel additionally has the second-fastest snap-to-throw time within the NFL at a median 2.6 seconds, which means the Pats should break shortly on quick routes to make tackles.
Search for their linebackers and safeties to inform the story of this sport.
That stated, the Patriots’ general defensive expertise far outweighs Cleveland’s talent group, and the Browns’ move offense ranks second-worst within the NFL. Barring a breakout Gabriel efficiency or a couple of trick performs that generate a landing or two, the Pats ought to management the air by enjoying easy, sound soccer. And that may particularly maintain true if Christian Gonzalez (one move breakup this season) lastly returns to type, as his place coach urged Thursday.
Recreation choose
Patriots 20, Browns 16
