Fifteen months in the past, Drake Maye made his NFL beginning debut in a 20-point loss to the Texans.
Oh, how far he’s come.
For the primary time since final season, Maye and the Patriots will battle Houston for the appropriate to play within the AFC Championship Sport. The Pats opened the week as slight dwelling favorites and obtained extra excellent news in the course of the week. Star cornerback Christian Gonzalez was cleared to play after struggling a concussion final weekend, whereas Houston will probably be with out its No. 1 receiver, Nico Collins, as a result of concussion he sustained in a Wild Card win at Pittsburgh.
However Collins’ absence gained’t assist Maye when he goes head-to-head with the AFC’s greatest protection within the hardest take a look at of his profession.
How can Maye overcome the ferocious, fast-flowing Texans?
Right here’s what to look at for in Foxboro:
When Patriots run
Maye led the Patriots with 66 dashing yards of their Wild Card win over the Chargers. If he does it once more Sunday, that’s a very good signal.
Whereas the Texans allowed simply two scrambles per recreation in the course of the common season, they allowed 9.2 yards per scramble, the best allowed common within the league. Maye’s legs might be the Pats’ greatest foil versus tight man-to-man protection, one thing they’re more likely to see from the Texans. However offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels may additionally leverage Maye’s athleticism within the crimson zone, the place the Patriots have struggled currently, and might want to convert when alternatives come up.
If Maye is used on choice runs, he might nonetheless hand the ball off to Rhamondre Stevenson, who’s breaking three tackles per recreation during the last three weeks. Stevenson (53 dashing yards versus Los Angeles) and Henderson have discovered wider dashing lanes currently, because of the Pats’ jumbo packages with six offensive linemen. Nonetheless, these might be in brief provide versus a Texans protection permitting a league-low 1.7 yards per carry to offenses utilizing that sort of personnel, per Sports activities Information. Options.
If the Pats stick to their conventional run video games, it ought to nonetheless be powerful discovering yards in opposition to Houston’s second-ranked run protection. The important thing then will probably be persistence with the concept from a number of brief runs, Henderson would possibly ultimately break away for a protracted landing. Anticipate the Patriots to name a number of “duo” runs with two double-teams within the inside, one of many few ideas Houston has struggled with this 12 months.
“There is perhaps some soiled 4 or five-yard runs,’ Patriots middle Garrett Bradbury mentioned. “However we’re gonna decide to it.”
When Patriots go
If there’s one matchup that would swing this recreation, it’s the Patriots’ offensive tackles versus Professional Bowl edge rushers Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter.
No pass-rushing duo within the league is extra fearsome than Anderson and Hunter, who made the All-Professional group and Professional Bowl, respectively. In addition they completed fourth and fifth amongst all defensive ends by Professional Soccer Focus’ pass-rushing grades. Anticipate the Pats to assist rookie left deal with Will Campbell and veteran proper deal with Morgan Moses with fast passes, bootleg play-action throws and chips from working backs out of the backfield.
Even then, the Texans might drive Maye to carry onto the ball with tight protection. They rank second at defending tight ends by the opponent-and-situation-adjusted metric DVOA and third versus working backs. That can put extra on the shoulders of ex-Texans receiver Stefon Diggs, who had simply two catches within the Wild Card spherical.
Search for Maye to hunt Diggs when Houston performs man protection, one thing the Pats have struggled with at occasions this 12 months. And DeMario Douglas, whereas quiet for many of the previous two months, might issue, too.
“It’s gonna be large for us to run routes the appropriate method and be accessible for the quarterback,” Diggs mentioned of going through man-to-man. “(There’s) gonna be numerous contested catches, and issues like that.”
Within the secondary, All-Professional cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. has been vulnerable at occasions when taking part in man protection, however his ball abilities (4 interceptions) stay a menace. Avoiding turnovers will probably be paramount for a Patriots offense that is aware of it will likely be strolling a decent rope many of the afternoon.
“They’ve bought eyes on creating turnovers,” Maye mentioned. “Their guys within the again finish are nice at getting their palms on the soccer and catching it when there’s anyone throwing it.”
When Texans run
Welcome again, Khyiris Tonga.
The Patriots’ veteran run-stuffer is again after lacking the group’s final three video games with a foot damage. His return offers them a full complement of defensive linemen, together with Milton Williams, who starred final week versus Los Angeles. By making the Chargers one-dimensional, the Pats had been in a position to ramp up their go rush versus Justin Herbert and sack him six occasions.
Like Los Angeles, the Texans are solid as a poor dashing group by superior metrics, ranked lifeless final by ESPN’s run-block win fee and fourth-worst in dashing offense by DVOA. Rookie working again Woody Marks might nonetheless create issues, coming off a 112-yard recreation at Pittsburgh final weekend with one landing. The Patriots should proceed to deal with properly and include Marks on exterior runs, which Houston makes use of to arrange bootleg play-action throws.
As a result of even because the Texans’ run recreation seems weak on paper, Patriots coach Mike Vrabel sees a unit gaining momentum.
“I believe they’re gaining confidence, it seemed like, within the run recreation and the physicality wherein they performed with the opposite night time at (Pittsburgh),” Vrabel mentioned. “And when you are able to do that, then it marries with – your play-action opens up and your areas over the center open up. Your boot recreation, all of it marries collectively. In order that, to me, appears to be like like what they’d wish to do.”
When Texans go
No Collins, no issues?
The Patriots ought to get pleasure from vital matchup benefits exterior with Gonzalez and Carlton Davis going through a receiving corps now reliant on rookie Jayden Higgins (41 receptions, 525 yards), third-year man Xavier Hutchinson and eight-year veteran Christian Kirk. Higgins has six touchdowns as a possible big-play menace who typically towers over opposing corners at 6-foot-4. But when there’s a cornerback duo that may deal with larger receivers, it’s Gonzalez and Davis.
Defending tight finish Dalton Schultz is one other matter, given he led the Texans in catches and receiving success fee (60.4%), that means most of the time Houston positive factors sufficient yards to remain on schedule or transfer the chains each time he’s focused. Masking Schultz ought to fall on safeties Craig Woodson and Jaylin Hawkins, although the Patriots’ greatest go protection doesn’t begin with protection as a lot as a gentle go rush.
Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud, whereas proficient, correct and cell sufficient to increase performs, melts below strain and dangers a turnover on 5.1% of dropbacks whereas below duress, per PFF. Anticipate the Patriots to ship extra blitz strain, as they did in opposition to Herbert, and attempt to isolate Williams in opposition to younger Texans middle Jake Andrews. After the Patriots’ matchups with Anderson and Hunter on the sting, this trench battle would be the greatest bellwether for this divisional-round showdown.
Sport choose
Patriots 20, Texans 19
