It’s about time.
The Patriots will host their first playoff sport in seven years Sunday in a rematch with the Chargers, the final Gillette Stadium guests throughout the postseason. The Pats are stable favorites, as needs to be anticipated for a house workforce led by the subsequent potential MVP and a number one Coach of the Yr candidate. However don’t underestimate the coach and quarterback on the opposite facet.
Justin Herbert has carried the Chargers to an 11-6 report, regardless of taking part in with a damaged hand and behind the NFL’s worst pass-protecting offensive line. Jim Harbaugh has molded LA right into a well-rounded, bodily workforce that doesn’t beat itself, and simply clinched a playoff berth for a second consecutive season.
“It’s a bodily soccer workforce,” Mike Vrabel stated this week. “(The Chargers) possess the soccer, they lead the NFL in time of possession. They’ve excellent quarterback play. They’re properly coached. They play with approach and fundamentals. The sport, it doesn’t – they don’t panic somehow. They sort of stick with their sport plan, put on you down and execute in vital conditions.”
So, who wins? Right here’s what to observe for in Foxboro:
When Patriots run
Prepared, set, jumbo.
Over the past 4 weeks, the Patriots have referred to as virtually 12 runs per sport with an additional offensive lineman, and the additional beef is paying off. They’ve averaged 8.7 yards per carry and scored seven touchdowns operating by way of these jumbo personnel packages. Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson discovered the tip zone dashing behind six offensive linemen final weekend versus Miami and are certain to get their probabilities in opposition to the Chargers due to how this shift has reinvigorated their shared run sport.
Moreover, Los Angeles prefers to play with 5 or extra defensive backs, doing so on greater than 80% of their snaps. If the Chargers select to match the jumbo groupings with lighter personnel, the Pats ought to discover regular good points to manage the movement of the sport. In any other case, if LA bulks up, this could come right down to explosive runs; the sort the Patriots have relied on to compensate for a principally inefficient run sport and the Chargers have allowed at a fee of roughly per sport.
When Patriots move
One in every of Drake Maye’s biggest enhancements this season has been eliminating ill-advised deep balls and choices that unnecessarily threat turnovers; performs that dotted his tape in school and as a rookie. Maye’s development on this space has now yielded the NFL’s most effective passing offense. And the timing couldn’t be higher in opposition to the Chargers, who boast the NFL’s finest deep move protection by DVOA.
Maye will seemingly be compelled to dwell inside 10 yards of the road of scrimmage, which ought to imply a number of targets for his favourite targets: Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry, Henderson and Stevenson. Earlier than the Chargers can double-team Diggs on third down, Maye could be finest off throwing to him on first-and-10, when LA is more likely to be taking part in primary protection. If he’s not concentrating on Diggs, search for the Patriots to assault off play-action, the place the zone-heavy Chargers are permitting 9.7 yards per try over the previous two months.
Early-down effectivity needs to be a robust bellwether for this matchup, contemplating LA ranks top-5 in third-down protection and the Patriots might have hassle blocking edge rushers Khalil Mack, Tuli Tuipulotu (13.5 sacks) and Odafe Oweh (7.5 sacks) on third-and-long.
When Chargers run
The excellent news: the Chargers rank useless final in run-blocking at Professional Soccer Focus and second worst by ESPN’s run-block win fee.
The unhealthy information: operating backs Omarion Hampton and Kimani Vidal don’t want good blocking to achieve yards. Hampton, a muscled-up, 221-pound rookie, has compelled 32 missed tackles this 12 months, per PFF, whereas Vidal is true behind him at 29. The Patriots have tackled properly all 12 months, however accidents have cracked their run protection as of late.
Will the return of inside linebacker Robert Spillane be sufficient to patch these cracks? Perhaps. However the perfect resolution shall be to wrap up the Chargers’ operating backs on first contact, and include Herbert, who’s rushed for a career-high 498 yards this 12 months and shall be a hazard to scramble all sport.
When Chargers move
In years previous, it was all about Keenan Allen and solely Keenan Allen. Now at 33, the six-time Professional Bowler has some firm.
Like Allen, Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston each completed with greater than 700 receiving yards this season. McConkey leads the workforce with 789, whereas Allen’s 81 catches are a workforce finest and Johnston caught a team-high eight touchdowns. Tight finish Oronde Gadsen (49 catches, 664 yards) is one other favourite Herbert goal, leaving the Patriots few apparent locations to tilt their protection on key downs.
Even when Vrabel trusts Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis to deal with enterprise outdoors, the Pats should have an effect on Herbert, a grasp within the pocket and on prolonged performs. The return of Harold Landry from a two-game absence ought to assist right here, as will dealing with a leaky offensive line. Then once more, Herbert has survived, and sometimes thrived, all 12 months lengthy whereas dealing with higher move rushes.
Add all of it up, and this one ought to come right down to the wire.
Recreation choose
Patriots 23, Chargers 21
