Another time with every little thing on the road.
The Patriots are 4.5-point underdogs heading into the Tremendous Bowl, a rematch with the Seahawks, who solely only recently recovered from their notorious defeat in Tremendous Bowl XLIX. Drake Maye is wholesome after a shoulder scare landed him on the harm report earlier this week. However the Patriots are nonetheless not as wholesome as Seattle, which solely listed one fullback on its remaining harm report.
At full power, the Seahawks are the higher and proficient crew. Their protection ranks finest within the league towards the run and cross. They boast the NFL’s Offensive Participant of the Yr, star broad receiver Jaxon Smith-Ngjiba, and a reborn Sam Darnold at quarterback with good rushers behind him.
So how can the Pats pull off the upset? And can they?
Right here’s what to look at for in Santa Clara:
When the Patriots run
It’s on you, Rhamondre.
The Patriots want their beginning again to be at his finest versus Seattle, and breaking tackles like he has the final six video games. Throughout that stretch, Stevenson broke 24 tackles and averaged 5.7 yards per carry. He additionally completed the common season because the league chief in Subsequent Gen Stats’ rush yards over expectation, a metric that measures how typically a operating again is gaining extra or fewer yards than anticipated based mostly on his environment all the way down to down.
Stevenson should carry the load as a result of the Pats’ offensive line figures to be overmatched by a protection that allowed 3.8 yards per carry, fewest within the league, and ranks No. 1 by DVOA towards the run. The Seahawks are so good, in truth, the hole between them and the No. 2-ranked crew is similar between that Houston run protection and the 14th-best run protection within the league.
Count on offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to check Seattle together with his six-lineman groupings in efforts to get the Seahawks into their rarely-used base personnel (solely 4 defensive backs). Even when it’s a ploy to arrange play-action towards heavy defensive personnel, the Pats’ jumbo packages might be a weapon after rejuvenating their run recreation late within the yr. Schematically, Seattle has been barely weaker versus inside runs (like inside zone and duo), which might be key for Stevenson, whereas rookie TreVeyon Henderson stays a greater possibility on outdoors runs.
One remaining key: blocking inside linebacker Ernest Jones, who was typically caught in site visitors or erased on the second degree on most explosive runs his protection allowed this yr.
When the Patriots cross
If Maye performs like he has many of the postseason, the Pats could haven’t any shot.
The excellent news: Maye must be due for some optimistic regression. And the Seahawks, as sound as they’re, will be cracked for some explosive performs. Search for Maye to strive some deep photographs down the sideline to Kayshon Boutte towards outdoors nook Josh Jobe, who’s drawn a number of cross interference penalties. Maye also needs to assault nickelback Devon Witherspoon, one of many extra proficient corners within the recreation who additionally allowed one of many highest catch percentages within the league.
In any other case, the Pats may strive Henderson in area versus Seahawks linebacker Drake Thomas, a run-first participant. However Maye have to be given time. Seattle has 4 completely different defenders who recorded 50-plus pressures this season, together with defensive tackles Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy II (seven sacks apiece). Williams and Murphy will stress rookie left guard Jared Wilson for many of the recreation in cross safety, whereas fellow rookie Will Campbell ought to have his fingers full with edge rushers DeMarcus Lawrence and Uchenna Nwosu.
When the Seahawks run
Which Patriots’ run protection exhibits up?
Currently, it’s been the identical dominant pressure that began this season with a historic stretch of by no means permitting a 50-yard rusher. The Pats manhandled Denver within the AFC Championship Recreation, thanks principally to defensive tackles Milton Williams and Christian Barmore. They did lose somewhat glue when captain and inside linebacker Robert Spillane left with an ankle harm, and Spillane might be at lower than 100% if he performs.
That mentioned, a season-ending harm to Zach Charbonnet leaves the Seahawks with just one harmful runner, and Kenneth Walker is more proficient at hurting defenses inside than on the sides, the place the Patriots are weakest. Walker rushed for 1,027 yards and 5 touchdowns this season, demonstrating plus endurance, imaginative and prescient and velocity many of the yr. If Seattle does hit the Pats for an explosive run, it’s doubtless Walker might be speeding at outdoors linebacker Ok’Lavon Chaisson, a frequent goal for Patriots opponents this season.
However general, the Seahawks’ run recreation is way from intimidating, rating 14th by DVOA and even worse by different superior metrics, principally because of a mean offensive line with clear weak spots. There’s likelihood each offenses run right into a brick wall Sunday.
When the Seahawks cross
So, about these weak spots.
Proper guard Anthony Bradford is the Seahawks lineman the Patriots ought to goal with 1-on-1 matchups towards Barmore and Williams. He’s allowed strain on 15% of his pass-blocking snaps within the playoffs. Younger middle Jalen Sundell is gettable, too.
If the Pats get to Darnold typically sufficient, he ought to crack. Darnold threw probably the most interceptions within the NFL when beneath strain this season and had a dozen fumbles. Darnold is harmful off play-action, however nearer to ample on normal dropbacks.
If the Patriots can’t have an effect on Darnold with a typical rush, they need to revisit the blitz packages that paved the best way for a late-season renaissance. The important thing will then be protecting towards Smith-Njigba, who can anticipate No. 1 nook Christian Gonzalez to shadow him, based on feedback veteran cornerback Carlton Davis made this week. However due to the Seahawks’ pre-snap motions and stacked alignments, Gonzalez can’t comply with him all recreation, which means it is going to be vital to sprinkle in occasional double-teams and assist in zone protection.
In any other case, speedy wideout Rashid Shaheed, who barely caught a dozen passes for Seattle after getting traded by the Saints in November, is a potent deep risk Darnold ought to strive in 1-on-1 protection towards Davis. Tight finish AJ Barner can be a high red-zone goal, and veteran slot receiver Cooper Kupp will go head-to-head with Marcus Jones however doesn’t pose the identical risk he as soon as did.
Prediction
Patriots 23, Seahawks 20
