When final season ended it wasn’t a secret what the Purple Sox wanted to do over the winter. The offense lacked an influence bat, and chief baseball officer Craig Breslow wasn’t shy about that being among the many membership’s high priorities.
Whereas the Purple Sox roster has improved as a complete, the membership failed in that pursuit.
The Purple Sox didn’t land both of the highest energy hitters on the free agent market — Pete Alonso signed with the Baltimore Orioles and Kyle Schwarber returned to the Philadelphia Phillies — and Alex Bregman wound up leaving to affix the Chicago Cubs.
As soon as that occurred the membership pivoted to run prevention, signing high free agent beginning pitcher Ranger Suarez and buying and selling for infielder Caleb Durbin, a gifted younger participant however not anybody’s thought of a masher. Because of this the Purple Sox head into 2026 with professional playoff aspirations, but additionally with some of the power-deficient lineups in baseball.
Breslow acknowledged that side of the offseason didn’t work out as deliberate.
“We don’t suppose it’s a lot of a secret, we pursued alternatives to herald slug and when these didn’t play out we checked out different alternatives to enhance the staff,” Breslow mentioned on Wednesday. “That mentioned, we’re speaking about a big majority of a staff coming again that was a top-10 offensive staff in baseball with alternatives for guys to take steps ahead due to the age and due to the event in entrance of them. I feel there’s going to be slug and energy that emerges from this group, however I additionally suppose we’ve received a fairly balanced lineup.”
However even when Breslow is appropriate, how a lot energy potential does this group truly possess?
Fashions paint dim view
The preseason fashions don’t view the Purple Sox’s energy potential favorably. Based on FanGraph’s ZiPS mannequin, Boston is the one membership in MLB with no participant projected to high 20 residence runs. Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu and Trevor Story are projected because the membership’s leaders with 18 every, three others are listed with 17 homers and the numbers sag off from there.
Extremely, the mannequin even initiatives that prospects Mikey Romero and Freili Encarnacion, the latter of whom hasn’t even performed above Single-A, will end throughout the membership’s top-10 with 14 and 12 homers, respectively.
The story isn’t a lot completely different with the Steamer projection. That mannequin has Willson Contreras main the staff with 19 residence runs and solely eight gamers in double figures.
Requested about these forecasts, Breslow mentioned he doesn’t suppose it’s price getting overly caught up in public projections, noting he believes in not solely the membership’s personal fashions but additionally his gamers and employees.
“Trevor, proper? He’s going to be again and we anticipate one other full wholesome season and cause to consider there’s even one other step ahead for him to take given a lot of his time right here was marred by accidents, and guys like Roman and Willy being wholesome for full seasons,” Breslow mentioned. “We might have somebody who hits for over 20 residence runs, we might not, finally we have to win extra video games.”
Well being will likely be key
One essential caveat with the Purple Sox’s projections is they don’t anticipate a full-season workload for any of Boston’s high hitters. Anthony is projected by ZiPS to play 134 video games, Story 132, Abreu 122 and Contreras 116, and Steamer’s numbers are even decrease than that.
Clearly well being can’t be taken with no consideration, but when these gamers can keep on the sphere they need to all comfortably clear 20 residence runs.
That may signify an enchancment from final 12 months when the Purple Sox solely had two gamers high 20 homers, these being Story (25) and Abreu (22). Abreu did so regardless of solely taking part in 115 video games, and even with none confirmed thumpers the Purple Sox ranked fifteenth in residence runs anyway with 186 as a staff, coming in slightly below the MLB common of 188.
The Purple Sox additionally ranked seventh in runs scored (786), and whereas hitting residence runs wasn’t a power, the place the membership actually excelled was hitting doubles. The Purple Sox led MLB with 324, and the 28-double hole between them and the second-place Athletics (296) was equal to the distinction between the A’s and the seventh-place Phillies (268).
Although the main projection fashions typically give attention to particular person gamers and never on groups as a complete, the Purple Sox needs to be nicely positioned to steer the league in doubles once more.
Would Bregman have helped?
There’s no query that Bregman is a terrific participant who would have helped this 12 months’s staff immensely. However when it comes to energy potential, he won’t have moved the needle that a lot.
ZiPS initiatives Bregman will hit 18 residence runs in 131 video games for the Cubs, and Steamer has him at 23 residence runs in 142 video games. These are definitely higher than the projections for seemingly third base candidates Durbin (10 ZiPS/10 Steamer) and Marcelo Mayer (9/8), nevertheless it’s not like anybody expects Bregman to return to his 2018-19 heyday and turn into a 30-homer man once more.
With Bregman on board the Purple Sox offense would have been a supercharged model of what it seems to be as we speak, which is a doubles machine with sneaky pop however which is able to finally depend on placing the ball in play and capitalizing with males in scoring place.
Casas the wild card
There may be one participant within the group who does possess professional 30-homer potential. The issue is he may be the membership’s largest query mark.
When wholesome, Triston Casas has proven he is usually a real middle-of-the-order pressure within the majors. Throughout his lone full season (2023) he hit 24 homers in 132 video games, and even when he was restricted to 63 video games in 2024 he nonetheless popped 13 bombs. Over his 4 large league seasons he has averaged 29 homers per 162 video games. The issue, clearly, is he hasn’t been in a position to keep on the sphere.
This 12 months Casas’ function is but to be decided. The membership has introduced in Contreras as the brand new beginning first baseman and the designated hitter spot is prone to be occupied by Masataka Yoshida and a rotating group of outfielders. Casas additionally hasn’t absolutely recovered from final 12 months’s ruptured patellar tendon, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see him begin the season on the IL and spend time at Triple-A getting common at bats whereas finishing his rehab.
Taking part in time could also be arduous to return by early on, however finally the very best model of the Purple Sox lineup most likely incorporates a wholesome Casas within the DH spot. It is going to be attention-grabbing to see if that involves fruition by midseason.
Midseason reinforcements?
In the end if the Purple Sox need to elevate their energy ceiling, they’ll have to herald some exterior reinforcements. Assuming the Purple Sox are in competition as anticipated, it could make sense for them pursue a bat on the commerce deadline.
Probably the most fascinating goal can be Arizona second baseman Ketel Marte, who the Purple Sox had been reportedly in on over the offseason earlier than the Diamondbacks determined to drag him off the commerce block. Marte is a switch-hitting second baseman who has recorded three consecutive 25-homer seasons, together with a career-high 36 in 2024. He’d come at a excessive worth, however he’d match completely onto this Purple Sox roster, particularly if Mayer doesn’t wind up taking a step ahead in his second large league season, or if somebody will get harm.
One other potential infield bat who Boston may purpose for is Brandon Lowe. The previous Tampa Bay Rays second baseman hit 31 homers final season however was simply traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates, who seem to really need to discipline a correct main league lineup and capitalize on reigning NL Cy Younger winner Paul Skenes whereas he’s underneath staff management.
Perhaps their offseason additions will repay, but when the Pirates fall to the basement of the NL Central once more Lowe will likely be an apparent commerce candidate provided that he’s set to hit free company on the finish of the season.
Finest case situation
Realistically, this Purple Sox staff isn’t constructed to swing for the fences, however that doesn’t imply the membership gained’t be able to popping a number of out on occasion.
And if the whole lot goes proper, energy may end up to not be such a weak spot in any case.
In addition to Casas, the Purple Sox’s different large wild card is Anthony. Earlier than making his debut Anthony was considered a premium energy expertise who had hit some titanic blasts throughout spring coaching and at Triple-A. However for the whole lot else he did nicely as a rookie, that energy didn’t actually present itself till August, when he settled in and hit six residence runs over his last 21 video games earlier than struggling what wound up being a season-ending indirect harm.
Whereas it’s finest to maintain expectations measured, is it actually that farfetched to think about Anthony going off for 30 residence runs in 2026? Certain, 20-25 is extra lifelike, but when Anthony exceeds expectations then he may completely turn into the facility anchor the Purple Sox want.
Abreu hitting 30 isn’t loopy, both. He hit 22 final 12 months in solely 115 video games, which equates to 31 over a full 162 video games. Alex Cora has additionally dedicated to taking part in Abreu every single day, together with in opposition to lefties, so if he can keep wholesome he’ll have extra alternatives to spice up these totals.
Others may outperform expectations too, and even when no person reaches 30 residence runs, 4 or 5 guys moving into the 20s would signify an enormous step ahead for what was already a fairly good offense. With a vastly improved beginning rotation and a roster that appears higher geared up to play protection, put the ball in play and capitalize on scoring alternatives, that modest energy enhance might be sufficient to raise the Purple Sox into a real championship contender.
