How Patriots’ divisional and AFC’s top seed odds can be impacted in Week 15

The Patriots can clinch a playoff spot for the primary time in 4 years on Sunday. They will additionally clinch a division title for the primary time in six seasons once they tackle the Payments.

New England would safe a playoff spot and win the AFC East if it merely beats Buffalo in Week 15, giving it a house playoff recreation for the primary time since 2019. However a loss may forestall the Patriots from handing out hats and t-shirts for a division title for at the very least one other two weeks and place some stress on them of their closing three video games of the season.

At 11-2, the Patriots are additionally battling for the AFC’s No. 1 seed as they’re at present trying up on the Broncos for the convention’s prime spot.

So, let’s check out how the Patriots’ odds to win the AFC East and get the AFC’s No. 1 seed might be impacted in Week 15.

How Sunday’s recreation can impression Patriots’ AFC East odds

We already know that the Patriots can win the AFC East in the event that they beat the Payments on Sunday. However what in the event that they lose?

Nicely, in that state of affairs, the Patriots’ odds to win the division would drop from 89 p.c to 76 p.c, per The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator. So, not an excessive amount of of a drop off.

Nonetheless, the Patriots’ margin for error would slip in that state of affairs. New England at present holds the tiebreak over Buffalo because of its 3-0 division file over Buffalo’s 2-2 mark towards division opponents. But when the Payments win out and the Patriots lose both of their closing two video games (at Jets, vs. Dolphins), Buffalo would get the division because of its energy of victory. 

So, Sunday’s recreation isn’t essentially an AFC East Championship Sport. However it may put numerous stress on the Patriots down the stretch in the event that they lose.

How the Patriots’ odds to get AFC’s No. 1 seed can enhance in Week 15

Sunday could be an much more necessary day for many who are hoping the Patriots get the No. 1 seed within the AFC, which might give them home-field benefit till the Tremendous Bowl.

Whereas the Patriots and Broncos every have the identical file coming into Week 15, Denver holds the No. 1 seed as its victory over Las Vegas final Sunday clinched the “frequent opponents” tiebreaker over New England. 

So, the Patriots can’t end with the identical file because the Broncos. Fortunately for New England, Denver might need a robust likelihood of shedding on Sunday. The Broncos are house underdogs towards the Packers.

If the Patriots defeat the Payments, and the Packers take down the Broncos, New England’s odds to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed climb from 48 p.c to 77 p.c, per The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator. Even when the Broncos win together with the Patriots on Sunday, The Athletic’s mannequin has New England’s odds of getting the AFC’s No. 1 seed barely growing. That could be due to the Broncos’ comparatively robust schedule to shut out the yr, internet hosting the Jaguars in Week 16 earlier than taking up the Chiefs and Chargers.

A loss to the Payments and a Broncos win on Sunday can be devastating for the Patriots’ hopes to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed. In that state of affairs, the Patriots’ odds to get the No. 1 seed would drop to 18 p.c as they’d basically be 1.5 video games again of the Broncos, in line with The Athletic. Aaron Schatz’s DVOA model, in the meantime, would give the Patriots only a seven p.c likelihood to win the AFC’s No. 1 seed. 

Within the state of affairs that the Patriots and Broncos lose, New England’s odds to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed would drop to 42 p.c in The Athletic’s mannequin.