Hitting is difficult. I may barely do it after I was 14, taking part in on the freshman group in Western Massachusetts, the place the expertise pool isn’t stuffed with future main leaguers. If the pitchers began throwing 97 mph with wipeout sliders and mind-bending changeups, I in all probability would have began writing concerning the recreation about 10 years sooner than I did.
I’ve carved out a distinct segment on this web site because the man who tries to elucidate pitch sequences and why they work. A excessive fastball can arrange a low curveball. A sinker on the within of the plate may provide help to escape a jam. Watching the sport and attempting to infer what’s coming subsequent is a part of why I really like baseball. It’s the world’s most complex recreation of rock-paper-scissors performed at 100 mph. No less than, so I assumed.
Stumbling by means of statistics after the Crimson Sox season ended, I observed an attention-grabbing development. Since pitch monitoring was launched in 2008, 2025 was the primary season throughout which greater than half of all pitches thrown have been within the strike zone. The quantity has slowly been on the rise over the previous a number of seasons, and 2025 was the primary time it eclipsed the 50% mark.
Whereas the rise might sound small, with upwards of 700,000 pitches thrown throughout the league in a given season, the shift is clearly intentional. However why? Nicely, as a result of hitting is difficult. Right here’s a have a look at pitcher run values per 100 pitches on swings, sorted by zone.
Hitters, as an entire, are finest served solely swinging at pitches proper down the center. On common, swinging at absolutely anything else is a optimistic for pitchers. Pitching is best than it ever has been earlier than. Velocity is up, and arsenals are deeper. In 2008, 78.8% of pitches thrown in 3-1 counts have been four-seamers or sinkers — they averaged 91.2 mph. In 2025, four-seamers and sinkers accounted for less than 65.8% of 3-1 pitches and averaged 94.1 mph. Hitters used to see 3-1 fastballs as a result of that’s what you have been “supposed” to throw, however extra not too long ago, organizations have stopped doing hitters favors.
There are clearly exceptions. Rafael Devers can hit a pitch off the bottom for a house run. Shohei Ohtani has taken neck-high fastballs out of the park. Good pitches get hit generally, however as Dan Haren stated, “Individuals pop up in batting observe.” In 2016, August Fagerstrom wrote about Haren’s tweet for FanGraphs. Haren threw strikes at 88 mph and received away with it.
Ultimately, with all tendencies, the scales tip. How typically are you able to throw the ball within the zone with out getting crushed? What pitch varieties or sequences mean you can dwell within the zone? In reality, I don’t know. I pored over stats, ran queries, direct messaged Driveline Founder Kyle Boddy on Twitter, and went on an ayahuasca retreat to seek out solutions, however the important thing to pounding the zone efficiently by no means revealed itself to me.
Nonetheless, one factor stood out amongst profitable excessive zone price pitchers — they throw a number of kinds of fastballs. Bryan Woo, Joe Ryan, Trevor Rogers, and Brandon Woodruff all throw four-seams or sinkers over 55% of the time and have zone charges over 55%. In additional anecdotal proof, Cam Schlittler threw 70% four-seamers and sinkers towards the Crimson Sox in Sport 3 of the Wild Card Sequence. These fastballs held a 68% zone price. It is sensible why it really works, too. Squaring up a baseball is extremely tough. It’s a must to swing on the proper angle, on the proper time, with a break up second to decide. I’ve by no means hit at a degree excessive sufficient to must do a lot aside from react to the pitch, however differentiating between two pitches which are spinning the identical path however have considerably completely different motion patterns feels practically unimaginable.
Except for reminding you that some dude who willingly lives in Southie in the course of the offseason ended the Crimson Sox season, there’s a cause I’m publishing this on a Crimson Sox web site. Payton Tolle debuted in August and dominated the Pittsburgh Pirates utilizing 60% four-seam fastballs. In his subsequent begin, he tried to run that very same gameplan again, however the Diamondbacks have been prepared. Main as much as the sport, they turned the pitching machine all the way up and refused to let the fastball beat them. Of 39 fastballs he threw, he generated solely three whiffs whereas Dbacks’ hitters fouled off 13. His cutter, curveball, and changeup every held zone charges under 50%. Tolle’s solely dependable pitch to throw within the zone was his four-seam, so Arizona may sit on it and struggle them off till they received one to deal with. He solely made three begins earlier than transferring to the bullpen, however his lack of secondary pitches to throw for strikes was shortly uncovered.
The frequent suggestion from analysts, gamers, and Tolle himself has been to enhance his secondary pitches — the cutter and changeup. However what if, somewhat than turning the ball over or chopping it extra typically, he simply began throwing a sinker? He already throws onerous and has large extension. If he has two fastball shapes to throw within the zone as an alternative of only one, it’s that a lot tougher to set your sights above the rising four-seam and anticipate one to hit. Hitters have a tough time damaging pitches that aren’t down the center, but when they know what’s coming, it’s a bit simpler. FanGraphs’ Justin Choi got here to comparable conclusions. He discovered that utilizing sinkers and four-seams early in counts was a good way to restrict early harm.
Circling again to the unique level, the one pitches that constantly return optimistic outcomes to hitters are these down the center. That’s why rely leverage is every thing. Pitches within the “shadow” zone (roughly one ball width inside and outside the strike zone) returned a .268 wOBA final season; pitches within the “coronary heart” zone returned a .356 wOBA. Behind within the rely, hitters are compelled to be extra aggressive and swing at these pitches. In 0-0, 1-0, and 2-0 counts, hitters swung at 35.1% of pitches within the “shadow” zone. In 0-1. 0-2, and 1-2 counts, that quantity rose to 64.6%. If you may get forward within the rely, every thing else will get slightly bit simpler.
It’s not simply early in counts both. Let’s use Bryan Woo because the proof of idea, as a result of he’s probably the most excessive instance, throwing a four-seam or a sinker about 73% of the time. In two-strike counts, Woo threw his four-seamer 48.2% of the time. Somewhat than filling up the zone with it, he elevated to induce swings and misses. Right here’s a have a look at his heatmap by rely, that includes this cool slidey factor.
With two strikes, there’s a really clear intent to raise from Woo. This method yielded a 22.2% putaway price, properly above the typical for a fastball. His fastball is similar to Tolle’s, as properly. Woo’s velocity was a contact decrease than Tolle’s, although the latter possible noticed positive factors from debut adrenaline and figuring out of the bullpen. Tolle’s comes with extra extension, nonetheless, serving to the rate play up even additional. Moreover, they’ve practically an identical assault angles, making it much more tough to hit when situated correctly.
Everybody will inform you that Tolle must spin the ball extra to outlive within the majors. Whereas he does want to determine that he can change speeds, he doesn’t want to start out throwing 35% breaking balls and changeups. In the event you nonetheless don’t consider me, check out Bryan Woo’s month of August. He threw 31.2 innings with a 2.27 ERA and 31% strikeout price. He used a fastball or a sinker 81%(!!!) of the time.
Will it work for Tolle? I don’t know. Woo has impeccable command, and his fastballs have two very distinct shapes. Tolle confirmed a bent to lose the texture for his pitches, and doesn’t presently throw a sinker. Possibly the perfect sinker he can throw doesn’t actually sink, and the previous 1,300 phrases have been meaningless. It’s additionally admittedly lazy to take one of many recreation’s finest pitchers and say, “He does it, why can’t this man?”, however Woo is only one instance of how fastballs within the zone can go a great distance. If in case you have the abdomen for it, watch Cam Schlittler’s begin within the Wild Card collection. He throws fastball after fastball after fastball within the zone, and the Crimson Sox didn’t barrel a ball all night time.
Schlittler wasn’t good. He didn’t dot the perimeters with every pitch, however he did get forward of hitters and pressure them to swing at pitches that don’t sometimes yield nice outcomes. Of 107 pitches, he threw simply 19 behind within the rely.
There’s multiple strategy to pores and skin a cat get hitters out. Blake Snell is partially who led me down this rabbit gap within the first place, and he’s ridden one of many lowest zone charges in baseball to 2 Cy Youngs and the best Ok/9 in baseball historical past. Max Fried completed fourth in Cy Younger voting, utilizing four-seams and sinkers simply 30% of the time. Corbin Burnes has made a couple of hundred million {dollars} with a cutter and a few spin. Including a sinker received’t magically flip Tolle right into a top-ten pitcher in baseball, however it is perhaps a strategy to keep forward of hitters and let his four-seam eat.
