The Tampa Bay Rays accomplished two important trades this afternoon. First, they dealt Brandon Lowe to Pittsburgh as a part of a three-team take care of the Astros concerned as properly. Tampa received two prospects again within the deal: Jacob Melton, an outfielder from Houston, who has some main league expertise, in addition to Excessive-A pitcher Anderson Brito from Houston. Additionally they despatched beginning pitcher Shane Baz and his three years of management to Baltimore in return for 4 prospects (Slater de Brun – OF, Caden Bodine – C, Michael Forret – RHP, and Austin Overn – OF), together with a Aggressive Stability Spherical A draft choose.
It’s arduous to ever actually know what the Rays are planning. Are they pondering two steps forward, and that is all lining up for them to maneuver three prospects to herald a good higher, extra cost-controlled main leaguer than those they despatched out? Did they appear across the division and see all the AL East* loading up, notice that they’ve completely no likelihood of competing in 2026, and subsequently punt to 2027?
(*Except for the Boston Crimson Sox. They don’t seem to be loading up. They haven’t signed a single free agent but this offseason. One thing that they’ve in widespread with solely the Colorado Rockies.)
The most important takeaway from these trades is that the Rays have been prepared to make a deal inside the division with the Baltimore Orioles. Buying and selling a younger pitcher in Baz, with three years of management left, is out of the unusual. If they’re of the thoughts that they don’t have the horses to compete in 2026, then the following participant to be on the transfer must be Yandy Diaz. Diaz is 34-years-old and has one 12 months left on his deal, which pays him $12M however counts for $9 AAV in opposition to the aggressive steadiness tax. Diaz would even have a conditional choice that vests for 2027 at $13M if he tallies 500 plate appearances this upcoming season.
Let me see right here: an inexpensive right-handed bat, who performs first base, hits the ball arduous, not often strikes out, and doesn’t require a “long-term deal”? I do know a group that may be inquisitive about that sort of participant.
Diaz’s energy numbers in 2025 have been definitely inflated by enjoying at Steinbrenner Discipline, a minor league subject that, it must be famous, has the identical dimensions as one other group within the division’s main league subject. 18 of Diaz’s 25 house runs got here at house a season in the past, so it could be applicable to taper the expectation again to the 15 house run hitter that he has been for many of his profession. Nevertheless, over the previous 4 years, a pattern dimension that I really feel much more snug with, Diaz has been among the many finest hitters in baseball with a .301/.379/.461 slash line. He ranked tenth in MLB throughout that time in wRC+ (min. 1500 PAs). Among the names behind Diaz in that metric are stunning.
Over these 4 years from 2022-2025, Diaz’s .301 batting common is 4th in MLB, his .379 OBP is seventh, and with a ten.3 BB% and 14.0 Okay%, his BB:Okay ratio is twelfth in baseball. For what Diaz lacks in house runs, he makes up for in doubles, tallying 128 doubles in that point. With Fenway Park having the primary park factor for doubles over the previous three years, Diaz can be a doubles machine in Boston. He nonetheless stings the ball at 34-years-old, exhibiting a 94th percentile Exhausting Hit% and Common Exit Velocity a season in the past with a twig chart that utilized all fields.
Statcast
Diaz performed 114 video games at designated hitter for the Rays a 12 months in the past and 37 at first base. Throughout these 37 video games, he amassed a negative-7 outs above common, which isn’t splendid. Nevertheless, his right-handedness helps complement a few of the different left-handed bats within the DH/1B combine for Boston, and this isn’t a group that has precisely prioritized protection at first base lately.
With just one “sure” 12 months remaining on Diaz’s contract, together with a vesting choice for a second, it appears possible that the Sox may get a deal finished with no need to incorporate the “better of the perfect” prospects in return. I wrote last month that there are not any excuses for why this group shouldn’t spend previous the second luxurious tax threshold, however till they show in any other case, we should always not anticipate them to. In line with @RedSoxPayroll as we speak, the group has $38.7M to spend earlier than reaching that threshold, which might permit them so as to add one bat at the next price, and one at a decrease one. Diaz can be the proper match for that second designation, supplied that the opposite hitter can higher contribute within the house run division. Now that we all know the Rays will make trades inside the division, all of the extra motive for Craig to select up the telephone.
