We simply might need one thing cookin’ right here, people.
The 2025 Crimson Sox—very like each different iteration of the staff up to now few years—have had their justifiable share of each ups and downs. Not like these bungled seasons, although, this yr’s membership has but to hit that dreaded late-summer swoon that we had gotten so used to. Hopefully these aren’t my well-known final phrases, however we sit within the prime Wild Card spot on the final Monday in August—with a minimum of a puncher’s likelihood at successful the American League East, dare I say. FanGraphs doesn’t give us glowing odds for doing so—we’re at the moment hovering at round 6% to win the division, however I’m not too unhappy about that contemplating that our total odds of punching a ticket to the playoffs is at about 87%. It’s bizarre that these scrubs from the Bronx nonetheless have higher odds of qualifying for October baseball, however I digress.
Is that this staff good? Under no circumstances; it hasn’t been all season and it received’t out of the blue turn into good in the previous few weeks of the common season. Thus far, I’d primarily level to the nights the place I get involved concerning the lack of offensive consistency. However do the Crimson Sox should be good to have an actual likelihood at making some noise within the fall? Once more, in no way.
We’ve made it this far—to the purpose the place Boston has the third-best run differential in all of baseball (yell about a couple of blowout video games right here and there all you need; the pattern dimension is large enough the place this truth can’t be scoffed at)—even with our warts and all. It is a legitimately good staff, even while you take off your red-tinted glasses. The remainder of the American League, frankly, doesn’t current a behemoth of a problem both. We wouldn’t be capable of moon stroll to a different AL title, and I don’t even suppose you’d be capable of name us one of many two-or-so favorites to characterize the Junior Circuit within the Fall Traditional, however the pennant just isn’t out of the realm of chance.
It feels good not having to dread the ultimate push in September. Bear in mind pennant chases? Bear in mind getting excited for the playoffs? That was enjoyable, wasn’t it? Why not do it once more? Perhaps we find yourself crashing and burning within the Wild Card spherical after two video games, however we must always a minimum of give ourselves an opportunity at a shout for glory—barring a disaster on this final month-and-change.
It’s Monday Morning Brushback time, y’all.
Brayan Bello: take a bow, my man.
The righty is having one of the best yr of his younger profession in 2025, and his heroic Friday evening towards the Yankees might find yourself being his signature second of the season. He led the best way in a 1-0 victory by going seven full innings on 92 pitches, surrendering only a trio of hits and one stroll whereas hanging out 5. In a large street collection, Bello was shining en path to securing a minimum of a cut up of the four-game set…although everyone knows what occurred afterwards.
Bello’s gem over the weekend introduced his season lengthy ERA down to three.07 and ERA+ to 134; that’s rattling good for the deputy to a Cy Younger contender like Garrett Crochet. You possibly can start to grasp why Crimson Sox followers seem enthusiastic about Brayan Bello (IYKYK).
Bello’s bread and butter on the mound is his capability to induce floor balls, and 2025 hasn’t been an exception to that; he’s engaging grounders about half of the time as he ranks within the 81st percentile in doing so per Savant. He doesn’t punch a ton of tickets, however Bello doesn’t should be a large strikeout pitcher like Crochet to seek out success if he has sufficient help on protection behind him. That floor ball level is one thing that anybody who has watched this staff lately would know (as a matter of truth, his GB% has really dropped from ‘23 to ‘24 and from ‘24 to ‘25; as excessive as that charge has been this season, he’s drawing much less grounders on a charge foundation in comparison with years previous).
The factor that has certainly modified in 2025: Bello isn’t getting hit almost as arduous this season. The arduous contact paving the best way for compounding harm was what bit Bello in years prior. Nonetheless, he’s lower hit arduous hit charge from 44.3% in 2023 and 41.1% in 2024 all the way down to 38.5% by way of 135 innings in 2025. That doesn’t sound like a large change, positive, however take into account that these ‘23-’24-‘25 percentile ranks for arduous hit charge are thirteenth, twenty ninth, and 67th. In an analogous manner: a mere half-percent drop in Bello’s barrel charge over the previous yr from 7.4% to six.9% has seen that metric go from the 56th percentile to the 72nd percentile has performed an enormous half in his success as of late. They’re not huge modifications at first look, however extrapolate that elevated effectiveness in coughing up loud contact over the course of a full yr’s work load and also you’ve acquired your self a rattling good middle-of-the-rotation possibility.
Folks a lot smarter than me have identified that Bello’s new look pitch combine may be a major cause behind his current run of success. Alongside his four-seamer and sinker, he’s launched a lower fastball to the combination in 2025—some glove-side fuel to go along with the arm-side fastball and your meat-and-potatoes heater. The consequence, as Excessive Leverage Baseball on Twitter factors out, has been a rising tide to carry a number of boats: elevated fastball choices, with completely different actions, have set the desk for fulfillment with Bello’s sinker, changeup, and sweeper.
One other level that Excessive Leverage identified that I’d like to spotlight: Bello’s excellent at tunneling his pitches.
You don’t should be Billy Beane to know that disguising your pitches—your repertoire that has massive variations in pace and break—is a fascinating trait in a starter. It helps you get out in entrance of bats to drive that shitty contact; once more, that’s proper in Bello’s wheelhouse.
I do know we typically say, tongue-in-cheek, that pitching coach Andrew Bailey has his personal lab to repair sure people who take to the bump. It looks like they could’ve unlocked one thing with Bello in 2025, although. It makes me excited for issues to return, each down the stretch and for the remainder of his tenure in Boston.
Simply inform him to be looking out for Connor Wong subsequent time he’s on the mound.
Shawty Received Lowe, Lowe, Lowe, Lowe, Lowe, Lowe, Lowe, Lowe
I’d like to increase a hearty welcome to Boston to at least one Nathaniel Lowe.
The primary baseman signed a contract for the rest of the yr final Monday. I have to say: thus far, so good. He logged a minimum of one hit in every of his first 4 begins for Boston. His homer towards Baltimore on Tuesday electrified the Fenway Devoted (even when the Sox went on to drop that sport) whereas he was capable of drive in two throughout Thursday evening’s victory at Yankee Stadium.
Not unhealthy for a man who was simply let go by the Nationals.
The inclusion of Lowe into the combination is newsworthy by itself, although the fallout additionally bears mentioning. Abraham Toro’s designation for task wasn’t made in live performance with the Lowe signing, however Toro performed 68 video games at first. God bless Mr. Toro, however one thing needed to give there. Toro gave us a valiant effort in current months following Triston Casas’ damage, however a .239/.289/.371 triple slash at first in a lineup that struggles with constant manufacturing at instances isn’t going to chop it for a staff with massive hopes heading into the house stretch. It’s not like he was a defensive stallwart, both, as his -4 run value at the corner infield spots has been less than ideal. I suppose it’s good to have him down in Worcester if push involves shove, however the time to make a change had come. Both manner, the streets will always remember Trustworthy Abe for stepping in when he did.
And to be truthful to Toro, it’s not like Lowe has performed like an All-Star in 2025. In any case, there’s a cause why Washington dropped him. Each his bat and his glove have taken steps again over the previous few months in comparison with the extent he had been acting at when he was with the Texas Rangers from 2021 by way of 2024.
The distinction is that Lowe had demonstrated his upside—an upside that Toro has by no means actually been capable of boast on his personal—as just lately as final season, each with the lumber and with the leather-based. Simply peep Lowe’s Savant page from 2024:
I do know the phrase “reclamation undertaking” can act as a soar scare amongst Crimson Sox Nation, however at this stage of the proceedings I’m greater than prepared to provide Lowe a shot at first understanding that he’s put up the numbers that he has up to now. From ‘21 to ‘24, Lowe logged a .274/.359/.432 triple slash for a .791 OPS throughout over 2,500 plate appearances. He knocked 78 homers and drove in juuuuuuuuust beneath 300 runs (299 to be precise) in that point whereas incomes a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove nod within the course of. Lowe had a 122 OPS+ throughout that four-year run; the very best OPS+ of Toro’s profession in one thing resembling a full season was 92 again in 2021. The upside dialog isn’t even shut between these two.
If there have been issues about first base manufacturing main as much as final week, might you discover somebody with extra attraction at this level than Lowe? You possibly can contend Kristian Campbell, positive, however I believe the Lowe transfer is shrewd and sensible one.
One other factor to think about: Lowe is arbitration eligible for 2026. I believe we’re a protracted, lengthy, great distance from answering this query, however might he be an possibility for the Sox to deploy persistently subsequent season? Casas’ damage is horrible—who is aware of how lengthy it is going to take him to get again into the swing of issues. Does the remainder of 2025 act as Lowe’s audition, even when it’s for a bench/depth function? That’s just a bit meals for thought down the road. For now, let’s hope Lowe can deepen the lineup and let’s hope we are able to get him his second World Collection ring in three years.
The Password is “Debut”
Welcome to the bigs, Jhostynxon García! The Password himself acquired the decision to MLB on Thursday after Wilyer Abreu was positioned on the 10-day injured record.
Our group’s quantity three prospect in line with Pipeline and quantity 5 on SoxProspects.com’s list, García has been tearing the quilt off of the ball within the minors this yr. Throughout each AA and AAA, the 22-year-old from Venezuela has put up a .289/.363/.512 (!!!) triple slash line in 433 plate appearances. The lion’s share of that manufacturing has been with the WooSox, the place he’s logged a powerful .932 OPS in 66 video games. The numbers beneath the hood don’t lie, both, as his Prospect Savant web page appears mighty effective (aspect notice: I’ve referenced Savant numbers thrice on this week’s article—we name that MMBB Bingo). Have a look at these slugging metrics and inform me you don’t have a tear in your eye.
Now, has García been a bit too aggressive on the dish within the minors? Yeah, perhaps, and it’s a trait that SoxProspects.com has identified themselves of their evaluation:
Method is a piece in progress and has a good quantity of swing-and-miss in his sport. Chase charge is a bit excessive and frequency of in-zone miss has ticked up in Worcester.
Even when García just isn’t a completed product, I believe the strides made by gamers like Ceddanne Rafaela just lately may very well be proof-of-concept within the group’s efforts to enhance his swing selections and—by default—his hit software. If he can put some extra constant and aggressive AB’s collectively on the highest degree, then his pure energy will do the remainder. We’re speaking some legit energy upside with this youngling, people.
García would possibly solely be with the massive membership for a cup of espresso, nevertheless it’s thrilling to see him take one other step ahead in his profession after he soared by way of the minors over the previous couple of years. He doesn’t even have to provide immediately for the Sox for me to be ok with his trajectory. To carry it again to SoxProspects.com’s write up:
Has persistently improved as he has moved by way of the system and has a number of pathways now to being a top quality main league participant…Arduous employee who takes instruction very effectively and has developed considerably in all areas since he signed.
That seems like a man that’s price conserving round and price getting his toes moist within the majors. Just a few of his moonshots wouldn’t harm within the subsequent few weeks, too.
And by the best way: it’s JOS-tin-son, according to a recording from Cooper Boardman that I found on Reddit.
Track of the Week: “Not The Similar” by Bodyjar
The place my THPS3 heads at? Benefit from the music and benefit from the nostalgic gameplay.
Similar time and similar place subsequent week, mates! Go Sox.
