Early in 2024, the Crimson Sox went with a breaking ball-heavy strategy, giving the staff a status for being anti-fastball. Now, when the Crimson Sox purchase a brand new pitcher, seemingly each analyst’s first transfer is to take a look at the brand new pitcher’s four-seam fastball. If the pitch has a excessive batting common towards or low swinging strike numbers, the quick response is to say, “Effectively, they’ll minimize that utilization for one thing else”. I’m responsible of it, nevertheless it isn’t essentially the case.
Final season, the Crimson Sox have been twenty first in four-seam fastball share. That’s, partly, buoyed by Garrett Crochet — telling him to cease throwing his fastball could be malpractice. On the similar time, Brayan Bello introduced again his four-seam. Lucas Giolito used his as effectively, regardless of common velocity and a mean form. Hunter Dobbins and Richard Fitts used fastballs with out ever seeing vital whiff numbers from them. The purpose is, the status the Crimson Sox have for hating fastballs is overblown, and results in some lazy evaluation.
When the Crimson Sox acquired Sonny Grey, folks (myself included) jumped at his fastball. In 2025, opponents hit .370 towards it with a swinging strike price slightly below 9%. At 22.3% utilization, these numbers scream “toss stuff else”. For Grey, that doesn’t must be the case.
Righties hit .400 towards Grey’s fastball, however that doesn’t imply it was a foul pitch. Right here’s how he threw the pitch towards righties final season.
Grey isn’t throwing his four-seam on the high of the zone, the place four-seams historically play greatest, as a result of his four-seam form isn’t conventional. The pitch cuts with out a lot vertical motion. As a normal rule, pitches are likely to play greatest by throwing them within the course they transfer — a slider performs greatest glove facet and down, whereas a four-seam works greatest on the high of the zone. Grey throws his four-seam, which strikes like a cutter, away from righties. The swinging strike price is low at 7.1%, however the known as strike price is big at 28.8%. These pitches look like in hittable places, however hitters take them for strikes repeatedly. Why, you may ask? As a result of hitting is actually arduous.
Every little thing Grey throws is away from righties. He throws backdoor sinkers, cutters down and away, and sweepers off the plate for whiffs. Due to his capability to find a number of pitch varieties on the outer half, hitters can’t simply hunt four-seam fastballs. In the event that they do, they’ll be out in entrance of sweepers, and sinkers that begin off the plate will come again for known as strikes. Righties had 96 hits towards Grey in 2025; simply 18 of them got here towards his four-seam. Of the 18, 11 have been singles. His “mistake price”, a metric developed by PitcherList, was simply 1.6%. He makes use of the pitch 15% of the time, hits his spots, and will get 74% strikes with it. Certain, the outcomes don’t look nice, however eliminating the pitch from his repertoire isn’t the answer.
Lefties are a unique story. The pitch is featured extra typically towards lefties — about 30% of his choices. It returns enormous strike numbers — a 66% strike price — however was hit arduous with a 43.5% perfect contact price and .356 batting common towards. With lefties seeing fastballs at a excessive price, the outcomes towards the pitch are extra of a priority. The repair isn’t apparent, although. He used a cutter about 6% of the time to reverse handed hitters final season and was in a position to get strikes, nevertheless it was hit arduous in a small pattern. He featured the pitch extra typically in 2023 with strong outcomes, however the form of the pitch got here with extra vertical drop. He additionally makes use of his sinker for strikes, nevertheless it was additionally hit arduous. His curveball was glorious, however throwing the pitch greater than his 2025 mark of 25% dangers diminishing returns as hitters change into extra acquainted with it. His sweeper was nice as effectively, nevertheless it’s nearly completely a two-strike providing and shouldn’t be used within the zone early in counts.
All in all, there isn’t an apparent “repair.” He might strive throwing four-seams and cutters to the arm facet for known as strikes. It might arrange his changeup effectively. All that being stated, Grey struck out 29.2% of lefties whereas strolling simply 5.1%. He restricted them to a .668 OPS, about 100 factors higher than his mark towards righties. Okay%-BB% is a straightforward, dependable approach to predict future efficiency. Grey ranked seventh amongst qualifiers in that metric. 5 of the pitchers who completed forward of him acquired Cy Younger Votes, and the opposite was Joe Ryan. Grey doesn’t want fixing, but when the Crimson Sox did need to alter his combine, it isn’t so simple as “simply throw fewer fastballs”.
