Welcome to the 2025-26 version of Smash or Pass, wherein we look at potential free agent and commerce targets to find out whether or not the Pink Sox ought to pursue them and what it might take to land them. After having a look at an intriguing young arm earlier this week, we now search for a center of the order bat.
Who’s he and the place does he come from?
He’s 30-year-old Peter Morgan Alonso, and he grew up in Tampa, Florida because the descendant of refugees who fled to america through the Spanish Civil Warfare. On condition that Luis Tiant was frequently and famously linked to The Previous Man And The Sea, Alonso can be the second Pink Sox participant to be tangentially associated to one among Hemingway’s 4 main novels. Now we simply want a second baseman who survived the retreat at Caporetto and a quantity two starter who continuously will get in drunken bar fights in Pamplona to finish the set.
Alonso has spent his total profession with the New York Mets. He entered free company for the primary time final offseason, returned to the Mets on a 2-year deal value $54 million, and opted out after the primary yr to check free company once more.
What place does he play?
This can be a notably pertinent query for this train. Alonso is a primary baseman, and he likes being a primary baseman, even though he’s not notably good at it:
However the Pink Sox have already got a primary baseman (no less than, in principle). And whereas Triston Casas has additionally not but confirmed to be notably good at it, he’s considerably youthful than Alonso, got here up with a good defensive fame, and has the potential to maintain getting higher whereas Alonso is sort of actually solely going to worsen. So does this damage the probabilities of the Sox signing the Polar Bear?
Eh, I wouldn’t fear about it. Alonso’s agent, Scott Boras, has already mentioned that Alonso can be keen to spend “some” time at DH subsequent yr. This sounds loads to me just like the JD Martinez state of affairs, wherein a defensively restricted free agent slugger who was reluctant to maneuver to DH ultimately got here round with the assistance of some huge cash. And, given Casas’s well being points, Alonso may find yourself enjoying a number of first anyway; you would even argue that the Sox can be higher off with Casas DHing to guard his physique with Alonso at first.
Effectively he’s not good at first base! However that’s not why the Pink Sox can be paying him.
As you might be little doubt already conscious, Alonso is among the recreation’s absolute best energy hitters. Since his debut in 2019, he has hit 264 residence runs. That’s the third-most homers in all of baseball throughout that span, behind solely Aaron Choose and Kyle Shwarber, each of whom are two years older than Alonso. And whereas he’s removed from the all-around offensive power that Choose is, he’s not just a few three true outcomes plodder, both, as evidenced by his .253/.341/.516 profession slash line and the truth that he led the league in doubles final yr. In truth, his 22.8% strikeout price final yr was higher than that of Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Trevor Story, Kristian Campbell, Romy Gonzalez, Jarren Duran, Carlos Narvaez, Rob Refsnyder, and Wilyer Abreu. The dude can hit.
Oh, and the opposite factor Alonso is actually good at? Staying wholesome. He has not missed a single common season recreation over the previous two seasons and has solely been on the IL 3 times in his profession, by no means for greater than 10 days at a time.
Present me a cool spotlight.
He’s the Dwelling Run Derby king for a purpose:
The final consensus is that Alonso will find yourself with a four-to-five yr deal value between $105-125 million.
Why would he be a great match for the Pink Sox?
It’s by no means a nasty thought so as to add one of many recreation’s finest energy hitters to your staff. But it surely’s an important thought for this explicit Pink Sox staff.
The bottom quantity of homers Alonso has ever hit in a full season was 34. It’s been 5 years because the Pink Sox had a participant who hit as many as 34 homers in a single season, and 7 years since they’ve had a participant do it from the best facet of the plate. As Alex Speier wrote in this wonderfully-detailed analysis from final yr, a pulled fly ball to left discipline at Fenway Park is sort of actually the best sort of batted ball in your complete sport. And the Pink Sox, as presently constructed, are woefully unable to reap the benefits of this. Alonso is the good bat to slip into the center of the lineup.
Furthermore, Alonso comes throughout as the kind of man who would thrive in Boston. He’s personable, humorous, and, as evidenced by his residence run derby performances, by no means uncomfortable within the highlight. And hey, his spouse grew up within the Boston space and the 2 met whereas he was enjoying within the Cape League. One in all nowadays the entire “massive free agent is married to somebody with ties to the Boston space” factor goes to work!
Why would he not be a great match for the Pink Sox?
There are not any baseball the explanation why he wouldn’t be a great match. In case you’re the kind of one that analyzes baseball as if groups get trophies for having the bottom payroll-to-WAR ratio, then you definitely’re most likely not that enthusiastic about giving $120 million to a soon-to-be 31-year-old first baseman, particularly in case you suppose Alonso would preclude the Sox from pursuing different massive ticket free brokers.
However, with respect as to if the Sox can afford Alonso and one other massive prize, let’s go over a couple of issues:
- The Pink Sox are value near $5 billion and sure generate properly over $600 million of revenue each season.
- The Pink Sox are presently about $40 million below the primary CBT threshold.
- The Pink Sox are presently about $80 million under the second CBT threshold.
- The penalties for exceeding the CBT thresholds are de minimis. Groups exceeding the primary threshold incur solely a modest monetary penalty (essentially the most the Pink Sox have ever paid into the posh tax was $13.4 million in 2019, which is only a shade greater than they paid Liam Hendriks for 5 innings pitched during the last two seasons). Whereas groups exceeding the second threshold have their first decide within the subsequent draft dropped 10 slots (and keep in mind: solely 71.5% of first spherical draft picks even make it to Main League Baseball).
- Cash isn’t even actual.
Pete Alonso is the right addition to the 2026 Pink Sox lineup and he solely prices cash, of which the Pink Sox have a lot. That is a straightforward smash for me. Signal Alonso, re-sign Alex Bregman (or splurge on Bo Bichette to play third in case you’re apprehensive about age), commerce for a quantity two starter and we’ll see you in Fort Myers. Operating a baseball staff is simple!
