Because the Pink Sox leak oil, slide across the monitor, and attempt to coast throughout the end line earlier than the surging Cleveland Guardians overtake them, it’s time to take stock with simply 9 video games remaining.
So, the place can we stand? What do the contenders have left? Are there any odd wrinkles in play? And who has these pesky tiebreakers we regularly overlook all season till impulsively they actually, actually matter?
Let’s begin with the present standings: (We’ll use “video games +/-” in relation to the Pink Sox each as a result of Boston is the focus of this evaluation, and since they’re at present the workforce sitting on the playoff bubble.)
Whereas the Pink Sox have gone a pathetic 5-8 with out Roman Anthony the final two weeks, the Guardians have been on hearth. They’ve received 12 of their final 13 video games and are quickly changing into a very powerful scoreboard surveillance squad in all of New England. When the Sox beat them again on September 2nd, they had been 8.5 video games away from Cleveland. Now, the hole is simply 1.5 video games.
Regardless of having a -23 run differential (in comparison with the Boston’s +102), and a number of pitchers on disciplinary paid depart as MLB investigates them in a gambling scandal, the Guardians at the moment are firmly within the dialog for the ultimate playoff spot. And as dangerous because the final two weeks have been, it might simply be even worse if issues went barely totally different in that recreation again on that September 2nd.
In an odd coincidence, some of the essential wins of the 12 months for the Sox would possibly truly change into the sport the place Roman Anthony strained his indirect. Throughout that contest, the Sox constructed up a 5-1 lead with Anthony in there, however he needed to depart after the 4th. The pitching employees then proceeded to cough up six runs within the sixth earlier than the bats rallied again to win 11-7. If the Sox lose that recreation, not solely does their present 1.5 recreation lead over the Guardians grow to be a 0.5 recreation deficit, however it additionally would have flipped the tie breaker in Cleveland’s favor.
Since that evening, the Guardians have received a lot they’re now solely 3.5 video games behind Detroit for the AL Central division lead. They only swept the Tigers this week, and oh by the way in which, Cleveland and Detroit play one another three extra instances once more subsequent week.
On that notice, let’s check out who everyone is enjoying for the ultimate three sequence of the 12 months:
A number of issues bounce out right here:
- That Mariners vs. Astros sequence this weekend is huge. Not solely will it decide who leads the AL West with every week to go, however it should additionally decide the tiebreak because the groups are 5-5 towards one another so far, so whoever takes two out of three right here is mainly two video games up with seven to play. If both workforce sweeps, that division is just about wrapped up on Sunday evening regardless of it being tied now. I’ve blended emotions about wanting a sweep in both path right here. On one hand, it should inflict max harm on the loser and open up one other workforce the Sox might end forward of within the standings, however it could additionally make the ultimate week a lot simpler for the AL West winner, and if the Sox do get in, that’s the workforce they’re overwhelmingly more likely to play. I feel I’d fairly have them should expend extra sources down the stretch right here, however it’s quiet messy both approach.
- On that notice, the Yankees are overwhelmingly more likely to get the primary Wild Card spot now with each their place within the standings and their remaining schedule. In different phrases, you’ll be able to nearly kiss the concept of any video games at Fenway in the course of the Wild Card spherical goodbye. The Sox nonetheless have the tiebreaker over the Yankees, however that appears more and more much less more likely to matter.
- At this level, you truly need the Blue Jays to win this weekend whereas they play Kansas Metropolis. For one, it should forestall the Yankees from profitable the division, however two, in the event that they clinch sooner, the Sox would possibly catch a recreation or two subsequent week in Toronto the place the Jays have simply clinched they usually name off the canines for 48 hours. Will probably be an affordable technique to bag an additional win, however at this level, any win may very well be the distinction between being out and in when all of the playing cards are counted.
- The swing potential with that Tigers vs. Guardians sequence subsequent week is unimaginable! Let’s take the 2 extremes: If Cleveland performs properly this weekend after which sweeps, they may very well be main that division after trailing by 11 video games as not too long ago as September 4th. That may probably depart the Pink Sox and Tigers dealing with off face to face for the ultimate playoff spot at Fenway over the past sequence of the 12 months. Then again, if the Tigers sweep the Guardians, they may clinch the division proper in entrance of them in Cleveland. That excessive wouldn’t solely do the Sox an enormous favor within the standings, however it could additionally put Detroit in a state of affairs the place they might not care in regards to the video games at Fenway subsequent weekend, after which impulsively the Sox have soft path proper on the very finish towards a Tigers workforce that doesn’t actually care about recreation 160, 161, and 162.
Groups the Sox have the tiebreak on:
Groups the Sox lose the tiebreak towards:
- Tigers* (The Sox might take the tiebreaker again from Detroit if and provided that they sweep them in that final sequence of the 12 months.)
- Mariners* (So far as the Mariners go, it’s going to come back all the way down to division report, they usually at present have a 3 recreation lead on the Sox right here, so whereas it’s nonetheless mathematically potential this flips they usually find yourself tied, simply assume Seattle has this one.)
The excellent news for the Sox is Joe Ryan might be pitching for the them this weekend. Effectively, probably not, however he’ll be pitching for the Twins, who the Sox must beat the Guardians and assist them out. Masterful gambit Mr. Breslow!
So far as the precise Sox starters go, right here’s the way it’s lining up:
So the starters for Tampa appear fairly set, however after that issues get extremely compelling.
The Sox might transfer Crochet as much as the September twenty fourth recreation on common relaxation each to get him forward of Bello within the order (which you need within the postseason) and to doubtlessly line him as much as pitch on brief relaxation on September twenty eighth if they should win the final recreation of the season to get in. Both approach, that situation is type of a catastrophe as you’d lose Crochet within the Wild Card spherical (which probably means curtains anyway), however it’s one thing they could should do.
Cleveland’s quiet kryptonite?
When you’re in search of some sneaky excellent news, it’s that Cleveland is closing the season on a stretch the place they play 30 video games in 31 days together with a double header in Minnesota on Saturday. In order sizzling as they’ve been of late, they’re expending a ton of sources to surge again into this race.
Groups that do that generally simply hit a wall. Of the groups I’ve adopted carefully, the 2010 Rockies come to thoughts, who at the beginning of play on September nineteenth that 12 months had been 13-2 of their final 15 video games and only one recreation again of the division lead. It felt prefer it was about to be 2007 once more, and as a substitute they blew a 6-1 lead within the recreation that day and closed the season with a 1-13 report of their remaining 14 video games. Baseball is loopy!
The principle level right here is the underside might nonetheless fall out for Cleveland as a lot because it doesn’t look that approach proper now, and if it does, the Sox might proceed to play very uninspiring baseball and nonetheless get in. (That is what occurs when MLB lets approach too many groups into the postseason.)
Is there any assist coming internally?
Sadly not within the type of Roman Anthony, however right here’s the newest replace on Wilyer Abreu:
Lastly, in a season outlined by the Sox calling up thrilling younger gamers, they could nonetheless have another within the pipeline. Luis Perales, who had Tommy John surgical procedure within the first half of 2024, is now again on the mound in Worcester and throwing fireballs — and because the Sox had so as to add him to the 40-man roster final winter to guard him within the Rule 5 draft, he’s truly postseason eligible regardless of by no means throwing in a serious league recreation.
Right here he’s on Wednesday mowing guys down:
Don’t be stunned if he find yourself in a Boston uniform earlier than that is over.
Both approach, the hunt for October is on!
