What would the Red Sox postseason bullpen look like?

With 46 video games to play within the common season, the Pink Sox are actually a shocking 4 full video games away from the Texas Rangers and Cleveland Guardians (the primary groups out of the playoffs) and have an 75.1% probability of creating the playoffs, per Fangraphs. Whereas the paths to enjoying time are clearer inside the lineup and the rotation, the bullpen feels prefer it has fairly a little bit of variance with regards to who is likely to be included on a playoff roster.

Let’s check out the 16 doable candidates that I may conceivably see pitching within the postseason, breaking them out into 5 tiers:

Notice: I’m together with Shutdowns vs. Meltdowns as “SD” and “MD” within the statline. Fangraphs’ explanation is here.

Aroldis Chapman: 49 G, 44.2 IP, 3-2, 21/23 SV, 1.21 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 31.0% Okay-BB, 29 SD, 5 MD

After a 15.4 BB% from 2021-2024, Chapman has minimize that precisely in half to 7.7% over 44 ?
? innings with the Pink Sox as their capital-C Nearer. Completely masterful in any and all conditions. Chapman is within the top-2 percentile in xERA, xBA, Fastball Velo, Whiff%, and Okay%. Arguably, one of many three most necessary gamers that should keep wholesome for this group to reach the postseason.

Garrett Whitlock: 43 G, 52.2 IP, 5-1, 2.91 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 21.3% Okay-BB, 21 SD, 6 MD

The trusted eighth-inning man, Whitlock seems to be like 2021 Garrett Whitlock once more. He has solely allowed a run in three of his previous 28 appearances, whereas 34 of his 43 appearances total have come within the seventh inning or later. After a 23% Okay-rate over the previous two seasons, Whitlock is placing batters away with a 30.6 Okay%, which is within the 92nd percentile in baseball.

Justin Wilson: 43 G, 35 IP, 3-1, 2.83 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 18.2% Okay-BB, 17 SD, 9 MD

After a shaky first ten appearances as a Pink Sox, Wilson has allowed simply seven complete runs in his previous 33 appearances. Whereas it doesn’t at all times happen within the seventh inning or later, Wilson is often introduced in for the largest spot within the sport {that a} key left-handed hitter, or stretch of hitters, must be shut down. His Whiff% and Arduous-Hit% sit within the ninetieth percentile.

Tier 2 – Deserving of a Spot (if wholesome…)

Greg Weissert: 52 G, 48 IP, 4-3, 2.81 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 10.1% Okay-BB, 20 SD, 7 MD

You might argue that Weissert deserves to be within the Excessive Leverage tier on the entire, however since July 1, he’s been deployed within the sixth inning in half of his outings, and his Okay% is within the twenty first percentile. Weissert was overused in June, showing in 15 of the group’s 26 video games and understandably hit a little bit of a wall late in that month. However he hasn’t given up an earned run in his previous 10 appearances and deserves to be again within the Circle of Belief. His 52 appearances are tied for fith within the American League, and solely two behind the league chief, Louie Varland.

Justin Slaten (IL-60): 24 G, 23.1 IP, 1-4, 3 SV, 3.47 ERA, 10.0% Okay-BB, 15 SD, 5 MD

Slaten has been coping with a nerve problem in his shoulder, which is printed here, however has been throwing off a mound this week and hopes to be again by the tip of August. Slaten was the best leverage “non-Chapman reliever” by the tip of Could with 18 of his 24 appearances coming within the eighth inning or later, tallying three saves within the first month of the season. He may simply rejoin the highest group with a robust September, however will first have to show that he’s wholesome in an August rehab.

If the 5 guys above are all in good kind, it’s troublesome to see any of them not on the roster. If we assume {that a} rotation shortens to 4 within the playoffs, then we would wish to search out 4 extra relievers from the next (lengthy) record for a complete of 9. Since rosters develop to twenty-eight gamers in September, the group would doubtless carry 9 relievers in that month, as nicely.

Tier 3 – One thing to Show

Brennan Bernardino: 47 G, 43.2 IP, 4-2, 3.09 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 7.3% Okay-BB, 6 SD, 7 MD

Would have been in Tier 2 per week in the past, however his latest demotion and a 22:36 BB:Okay ratio this season depart simply sufficient doubt. Bernardino has not pitched since his final MLB outing on July 28 and really nicely may simply be getting a “reset” on an arm that has made 49 appearances (two of which had been within the minors) already this season. Bernardino has extra meltdowns than shutdown appearances this season, with solely 19% of his pitches thrown this season being in high-leverage conditions however hitters are batting simply .199 towards him this season (with a .225 xBA). Bernardino additionally has an 81st percentile GB%.

Chris Murphy: 12 G, 20 IP, 2-0, 2.25 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 16.0% Okay-BB, 3 SD, 0 MD

Bernardino’s demotion might have partially been because of the effectiveness of Murphy in latest weeks. Except for the three residence runs he allowed at Wrigley Area in mop-up obligation, Murphy has been lights out, with 9 of his 12 outings being scoreless. He has been requested to get 5+ outs in seven outings and is gaining belief as an extended man within the Sox pen.

Steven Matz (STL + BOS): 34 G (2 GS), 57 IP, 5-2, 3.44 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 16.2% Okay-BB, 8 SD, 9 MD

Sticking with the lefties theme, Matz has thrown two shutout innings since arriving in Boston. He was wonderful for the Cardinals over the primary six weeks, however since Could 14th, has a 5.04 ERA (3.84 FIP) and a 1.42 WHIP.

Jordan Hicks (SF + BOS): 25 G (9 GS), 59 IP, 1-7, 2 SV, 6.41, 1.59 WHIP, 9.3% Okay-BB, 1 SD, 6 MD

Hicks has a 6.10 ERA in 10 ?
? IP with Boston so far, and has 8 BB+HBPs to go along with 8 strikeouts. He’s gotten two saves and appeared nice in these outings, however his struggles have in any other case been an extension of the pitcher that he was in San Francisco. Hicks is in simply yr two of a 4 yr, $44M contract, and was doubtless simply regarded as a technique to transfer wage again to Boston in return for what they had been taking up with Rafael Devers.

Cooper Criswell: 7 G (1 GS), 17.2 IP, 1-0, 3.57 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 5.0% Okay-BB, 1 SD, 0 MD

Criswell is a depth arm for each the rotation and as an extended man out of the bullpen. With a 4.48 profession ERA in 154 ?
? innings, he’ll doubtless throw some extra innings that matter within the 2025 common season. May simply be a thirteenth arm in a playoff collection, ought to a sport go to further innings or a starter is pressured to exit early.

Kelly was a key piece to the bullpen a yr in the past and has only recently returned to Worcester from the 15-day IL with an indirect damage. With Boston, Kelly has thrown 22 ?
? IP with a 5.56 ERA (3.64 FIP). If Kelly can discover his stuff and throw strikes, it might’t be dominated out that he’s again up with the membership in September.

He was recalled on Tuesday when Jorge Alcala was DFA’d. Campbell has seven saves and a 4.17 ERA in 45 ?
? IP (34 G) at Worcester and seems like he’ll solely be in Boston briefly.

A six-year MLB veteran, Burdi has nice numbers at Worcester when wholesome this season. Over 23 innings, his ERA is 1.96 with 11.7 Okay/9. He not too long ago returned from foot and hip accidents at Worcester, however did throw 5 ?
? IP for the massive membership in Could of this season with out permitting a run.

Guerrero not too long ago shifted to the 60-day IL with an elbow sprain. Though he hasn’t been dominated out for the season, there isn’t a information of throwing but, and he can’t be relied upon to be accessible in October.

By no means has the discharge of a pitcher with a 3.31 ERA in 19 appearances ever been extra comprehensible. Final Tuesday, Alcala allowed two runs in ?
? of an inning, forcing the utilization of Aroldis Chapman for a one-out save. On Saturday, Alcala allowed two of the three baserunners he confronted to succeed in base, forcing the utilization of Aroldis Chapman for a two-out save. This previous Monday, Alcala allowed three runs, together with two residence runs, in ?
? of an inning, forcing the utilization of their three highest leverage relievers in an pointless 8-5 ultimate. Unnecessarily put on down the nearer 3 times in a single week? He gone.

Tier 5 – Prospect Name-Ups

Payton Tolle (MiLB mixed numbers): 17 G (15 GS), 4-1, 2.93 ERA, 76.2 IP, 1.02 WHIP, 31.1% Okay-BB

The 22-year-old Tolle made 11 dominant appearances at Excessive-A to start out the season, adopted by six appearances at Double-A that had been extra dominant than the Excessive-A begins, earlier than being promoted to Worcester this week. He has thrown 76 ?
? innings on the season and it’s not inconceivable to assume that if the group desires to handle his workload in just a few weeks, perhaps they shouldn’t waste these bullets within the minor leagues. Tolle, the #1 prospect on Sox Prospects, would must be added to the 40-man roster earlier than September 1 to be eligible for postseason play. Even when that occurred, he would nonetheless be eligible for Rookie of the 12 months incentives in 2026 since he would fall in need of the 50-inning and 45-roster day thresholds.

David Sandlin (MiLB mixed numbers): 19 G (14 GS), 88.2 IP, 7-4, 3.65 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 17.9% Okay-BB

Copy and paste the Tolle paragraph from above, solely barely much less dominant. Sandlin is the #9 prospect at Sox Prospects.