Welcome to the Friday 5, bye-week version!
Each week through the NFL common season, I’ve dropped 5 Patriots-related ideas on Friday to recap the week that was in Foxboro and stay up for the Pats’ subsequent kickoff.
For the reason that Patriots are off this Sunday, we’ve doubled the enjoyable and pushed this column again two days.
Prepared, set, soccer.
1. The Pats’ most harmful playoff opponent is …
Buffalo, however it’s shut.
The Texans’ protection is essentially the most fearsome unit — offense, protection or particular groups — of any within the AFC. Houston ranks first in factors allowed and defensive EPA (Anticipated Factors Added). The Texans are second by the opponent-and-situation-adjusted metric DVOA on protection, and they’re are affected by Professional Bowl-caliber skills on either side of the ball.
But I can’t slot them forward of the Payments. It comes all the way down to this: should you’re the Patriots, do you’ve gotten extra confidence in Drake Maye main a game-winning remaining drive versus the Texans protection or your protection stopping Josh Allen in the identical situation? I’m taking Maye.
Allen is a wrecking ball, a drive and the reigning MVP for 2 extra months. His box-score stats belie what’s been a greater season on tape, particularly contemplating his lack of weapons and, at instances, poor luck with turnovers. Buffalo has issues, positive. However I don’t anticipate the Patriots to have the ability to exploit their run protection, which implies any matchup must be in a shootout if/when the Payments come to Foxboro.
There are few quarterbacks I might worry in a shoot-out fairly like Allen, particularly after he’s carried Buffalo to the divisional spherical 5 years operating.
2. Least harmful playoff opponent: Jacksonville
Tony Boselli, Fred Taylor, Jimmy Smith and Mark Brunell aren’t strolling by way of that door. Even when they have been, the Pats would possibly beat them anyway.
You suppose Trevor Lawrence goes to win a playoff sport in Foxboro? C’mon.
Of notice: the Steelers, whose playoff odds are 34%, in line with ESPN, have been excluded. The Ravens, Chargers, Chiefs and Texans all boast higher quarterbacks, whereas the Colts personal a greater, extra proficient roster than Jacksonville, giving them an edge right here amongst AFC contenders.
3. Rivalry brewing
Again to the Payments.
The Pats haven’t had a real rival since Peyton Manning retired, a tragic drought preceded by salty stretches of actual rivalry. Beginning in 2000, the Steelers, Jets, Colts, Ravens, Broncos all took turns poking the bear that was the dynasty-era Patriots, and, sometimes, drew blood. For a time, with every of these franchises, aggressive hate flowed each methods.
That appears like eons in the past. However mark it down: the subsequent rivalry is constructing.
The Patriots are coming for the AFC East crown, which has belonged to the Payments since 2020. The yr earlier than, the Pats held off Allen in a primetime, late-December win to clinch what stays their most up-to-date division title. Allen was solely a second-year participant then, however veterans like Matthew Slater admitted then they might hear Buffalo’s footsteps coming due to their quarterback’s improvement, sharp teaching and a well-rounded roster.
Sound acquainted?
The Pats have closed the hole this yr behind Maye and Mike Vrabel, and are positioned to battle the Payments for years to return. Maye and Allen could also be pleasant on a private degree, however taking part in twice a yr will breed the kind of familiarity that ought to breed contempt for his or her groups.
Ding, ding.
4. Sufficient schedule discuss
The Patriots’ schedule is what it’s.
It’s been a recognized cakewalk for months. One of many best within the trendy period. The schedule doesn’t must be cited, emphasised or excused anymore as a result of in the end it’s simply context — and essential context, at that — however nothing extra.
The driving forces behind the Patriots’ 10-game win streak and 11-2 report are the Patriots themselves. Interval. Good gamers, nice teaching and an organizational edge not recognized right here for greater than a half-decade. The best solution to perceive how the schedule issues is to consider the season as a take a look at drive.
A workforce’s schedule shapes the highway. Is it straight and flat? Or slim, craggy and filled with hazard? Both method, somebody has to gasoline up the automotive, drive it, navigate each flip and preserve the automotive from crashing. One of the best playoff groups are sometimes those with one of the best drivers (learn: quarterbacks) and those that end the common season with the fewest scratches and dents (learn: healthiest rosters).
Anyway, dents are coming for the Patriots subsequent yr when their highway will get a lot rockier, and all of this schedule dialog will inevitably subside. Right here’s why.
Behold, the Patriots’ 2026 opponents at dwelling: Payments, Broncos, Packers, Raiders, Dolphins, Vikings, Jets and an AFC North workforce TBD.
And on the highway: Payments, Bears, Lions, Chiefs, Chargers, Dolphins, Jets, an AFC South workforce and NFC West workforce each TBD.
Assuming the Patriots end in first place, their subsequent schedule might embody as much as 11 video games versus 2025 playoff groups, and may function not less than eight. That’s as a result of the NFL’s scheduling method is working precisely because it was supposed. The Patriots have been a last-place workforce final yr and confronted a comfortable, last-place schedule this season.
Subsequent yr, it will likely be a winding, harmful highway again to the playoffs.
5. The explanations to run
Relying on the Patriots’ run sport as an environment friendly, dependable a part of their offense appears like a misplaced trigger.
The Pats rank close to the underside of the league by dashing success price, yards per carry, EPA, DVOA, the entire most telling metrics. They’ll nonetheless get by with an inefficient run sport, as some high-powered offenses do, in the event that they hit sufficient explosive runs that offset their down-to-down inefficiency, and in the event that they convert in short-yardage.
Dangerous information: the Pats stink in short-yardage, too, changing barely half the time. So why do they proceed to run?
TreVeyon Henderson simply received AFC Rookie of the Month as a result of the specter of him breaking a protracted landing run with 4.3 velocity retains defenses sincere. For the reason that begin of November, Henderson is among the many NFL leaders in yards after contact, and dashing yards over anticipated. The run sport is a car for a devastating play-action passing assault.
In keeping with Professional Soccer Focus, Maye has accomplished 72% of his passes for 981 yards, seven touchdowns and nil interceptions off play-action. His 9.8 yards per try common is a full yard greater than his season-long common on all throws. His passer ranking is a glowing 126.3.
Efficient play-action doesn’t require an efficient run sport, however it does require an offense dedicated to operating the ball in order that its play fakes have to be revered. So the subsequent time you surprise why Josh McDaniels is insisting on what appears to be like like operating right into a brick wall, right here you go.
6. Vrabel’s throwback id
In all of the Tremendous Bowls and years that adopted, it’s straightforward to neglect the Patriots based their dynasty on a punch to the mouth.
Re-watch some clips of their Tremendous Bowl XXXVI win over the Rams throughout that 2001 season, and a few of these hits will strike you as downright unlawful. As a result of by at this time’s guidelines, they’re.
That kind of physicality keyed their first title, and ensuing wins over their high AFC challenger — the Colts — within the playoffs of the 2003 and 2004 seasons. Vrabel is operating a distinctly totally different program than Invoice Belichick did then, however there are a number of non-negotiable components to constructing a successful workforce. Physicality is one in all them, and few coaches, if any, know that higher than Vrabel.
Final week, such physicality — highlighted by Christian Elliss’ crushing sideline blow of Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart — pushed the Pats into their bye week with a tenth straight win. Their defensive sport plan didn’t revolve round a set of schemes or ideas.
Simply brute physicality. It labored.
7. Load administration
Defensive captain Robert Spillane performed a season-low 38 defensive snaps final Monday. Exterior linebacker Harold Landry noticed 31. Stefon Diggs has topped 40 offensive snaps simply twice this yr.
The Patriots have been taking part in the lengthy sport with their veterans’ well being this season, and it’s the precise transfer. The franchise has not completed a season robust since 2017, and one of the best model of this workforce at all times was going to necessitate productive years from its older gamers. That features Diggs, Landry and 34-year-old proper deal with Morgan Moses, who has been on a pitch rely since coaching camp.
The Pats have misplaced a number of starters to critical harm lately, together with left deal with Will Campbell and defensive deal with Milton Williams touchdown on IR. However the workforce appears to have staved off the harm bug so long as potential, and has reaped these rewards.
8. Are you able to consider this?
Within the final 20 years, are you able to identify a university large receiver the Patriots have drafted with extra profession NFL touchdowns than Kayshon Boutte?
No, you’ll be able to’t. As a result of that participant doesn’t exist.
Boutte’s 9 touchdowns are essentially the most amongst all drafted Patriots large receivers courting again to Deion Department, who was a second-round choose in 2002. Brandon Tate, a third-rounder from 2009, ranks second with seven. This record, in fact, excludes Julian Edelman, one other 2009 draft choose who performed quarterback in faculty.
It’s each a credit score to Boutte’s speedy improvement, and a transparent reflection of the Patriots’ worst draft failures since Department. And get this: Department was drafted earlier than Boutte was even born.
9. Kraft, Belichick reunion?
Holy awkwardness, Batman.
If Robert Kraft and Invoice Belichick obtain votes from 80% of the Corridor of Fame committee when the committee reconvenes in February to elect the Corridor’s 2026 class, they are going to be inducted collectively subsequent summer time. Their relationship froze` over two years in the past on the finish of Belichick’s tenure and went ice chilly within the ensuing months over The Dynasty documentary, Kraft’s feedback about firing Belichick on a podcast and the coach’s ongoing photographs at his former workforce by way of the media. Belichick, presumably, can be in attendance if elected regardless of teaching at North Carolina subsequent summer time, although it’s arduous to see him making time for his former boss that weekend.
Anyway, take into account reserving your flights and shopping for tickets to the ceremony and the Corridor of Fame Sport now, by the way in which.
The Patriots haven’t performed within the league’s annual preseason opener since 2000, and a few years the league schedules the previous groups of its latest inductees to play outdoors Canton throughout Corridor of Fame weekend. The one draw back: coaching camp would begin a lot earlier for the Patriots.
10. Quote of the Week
“That we’re not accomplished. We’re not happy. I believe champions are by no means happy. I believe you’ll be able to recognize the place you might be, however on the identical time, by no means be happy or complacent. The effective line between relaxation and restoration, and simply being sedentary. So, there’s a effective line of what we now have to do to have the ability to come again in right here, perceive that simply because you’ve gotten a bye, that doesn’t imply you’re assured some victory the subsequent week on this league. Groups are 16-12 coming off a bye this yr, so clearly the bye doesn’t assure something aside from we must always get some guys again that we didn’t have final evening.” — Mike Vrabel on his message to the Patriots earlier than breaking for his or her bye week
