Welcome to the postseason.
The Patriots are set to play their first dwelling playoff sport in six years Sunday at 8 p.m. ET. The postseason matchup at Gillette Stadium would be the Patriots’ first playoff sport general for the reason that 2021 season, after they went one-and-done with a wild-card spherical loss to the Payments on the street.
This 12 months’s squad is ready up for extra success, however their first-round matchup with the Chargers gained’t be straightforward. The Chargers have a franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert, a playoff-tested head coach in Jim Harbaugh and one of many NFL’s finest defenses.
The Patriots, in the meantime, have a brand new id below head coach Mike Vrabel, an MVP candidate in Drake Maye and a protection returning two key starters.
Listed below are 10 issues we’re watching Sunday night time.
• Will the Patriots’ strategy work? All week, gamers have been preaching to not “change the macaroni and cheese.” What does that imply? Don’t change the recipe simply because it’s the playoffs. The Patriots wish to put together the identical for Sunday night time’s sport as they’ve all season, which is sensible, as a result of the group is 14-3 and the No. 2 seed within the AFC. The playoffs are a unique animal, nonetheless, and a lot of the Patriots’ roster is making their postseason debuts. Gamers appear locked on this week, they usually face a troublesome, however winnable matchup.
• Former Patriots head coach Invoice Belichick said this week that the Pats must get out to a sizzling begin towards the Chargers. A lot was made this summer time about Maye knocking off jitters early in video games. Quick ahead 18 weeks, and Maye paces all quarterbacks in first-quarter anticipated factors added (EPA) per play and completion share over anticipated (CPOE).
• The Patriots’ protection ranks 18th in first-quarter EPA per play, twenty sixth in first-quarter success price, twenty first in first-quarter EPA per dropback and sixteenth in first-quarter EPA per rush. It’s really shocking that they rank that effectively in these metrics, because it appears like they’ve allowed a landing on the primary drive of most video games. If the Patriots can get out to an early lead and cease the Chargers early, that might make them one-dimensional and closely depending on two backup tackles to guard Justin Herbert within the passing sport.
• That results in the following factor we’re watching, and that’s whether or not or not the Patriots have the flexibility to use Chargers left sort out Jamaree Salyer and proper sort out Trey Pipkins. The Patriots would not have a top-tier move rusher, however they nonetheless rank tenth in NFL Professional’s stress price. They’re nineteenth in ESPN’s pass-rush win price. Ok’Lavon Chaisson has been a pleasant discover on a one-year deal in free company and leads the group with 54 pressures. Defensive sort out Christian Barmore has struggled at instances towards the run however ranks extremely amongst inside defenders with 50 whole pressures. Exterior linebacker Harold Landry returned to observe this week after lacking two video games, and defensive sort out Milton Williams was activated off injured reserve final week and seemed spry towards the Dolphins. It appears like sufficient to disrupt Herbert.
• Amongst 37 certified passers, Herbert ranks eleventh in PFF’s passing grade below stress with a 56.1 mark. For comparability’s sake, Maye is fifth with a 61.8 mark. Herbert has a 74.4 passer score below stress, whereas Maye’s passer score below stress is 90.4
• The Chargers have two harmful move rushers in Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu. If this was final season, and even 2023, that might be a serious drawback for the Patriots. However the Pats’ entrance workplace bolstered their offensive line by signing proper sort out Morgan Moses and choosing Will Campbell within the first spherical of the 2025 NFL Draft. Each gamers have been large upgrades and rank among the many prime half of NFL tackles. Campbell returned from IR final week and seemed again to himself.
• The Patriots ranked as one of many NFL’s prime run defenses by way of the primary 10 weeks of the season. Then Williams went on injured reserve, then linebacker Robert Spillane went down, then defensive sort out Khyiris Tonga handled a number of illnesses, after which Landry sat out two weeks, and the unit acquired shaky towards the bottom sport. How effectively the unit can cease the run with out Tonga might resolve this sport. It’s large to get Williams, Spillane and doubtlessly Landry again. However can they be as efficient and jell as a unit immediately?
• Herbert threw 4 interceptions in final 12 months’s playoff loss to the Texans, and the very last thing he needs is a repeat of that efficiency. The Patriots haven’t generated 4 turnovers in a sport all season. Beginning cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis have but to intercept a move. It doesn’t essentially should be Gonzalez or Davis, and the Patriots will welcome pressured fumbles, as effectively, however the Patriots want to have the ability to take the ball away. Previous to the Patriots’ Week 16 win over the Ravens, they actually prioritized punching the ball out. They did it twice towards the Ravens and once more in Week 18 towards the Dolphins. Herbert has additionally had some fumbling points since injuring his left hand in Week 13. He’s fumbled 5 instances over his final 4 video games.
• The Patriots’ run sport has come on robust over the second half of the season with rookie TreVeyon Henderson and veteran Rhamondre Stevenson displaying the flexibility to tear off massive performs. Stevenson, particularly, has been incredible over the ultimate 4 weeks. It’s going to be powerful sledding towards the Chargers’ protection, however each backs must proceed to run decisively. Extra importantly, they should proceed to carry onto the soccer.
• Recreation prediction: Patriots win 24-21. It gained’t be straightforward, however the Patriots are a superb group, and the Chargers have sufficient flaws to use. The Patriots ought to advance.
