When the offseason began on the evening of October 2nd, lots of the true sickos in Crimson Sox Nation started waiting for 2026 to determine tips on how to repair a roster that mustered simply six runs in a three-game sequence towards the Yankees and struck out 13 instances whereas being shutout in an elimination recreation to finish the season. With Alex Bregman opting out and Rafael Devers not strolling by that door, which two high-impact bats would take their place, if not Bregman himself? And the way can we stop a September call-up from pitching a decisive Recreation 3 subsequent season?
With the assistance of the important Google Sheet from @redsoxpayroll on Twitter, we will estimate, to the most effective of our talents, the place the Crimson Sox payroll goes to be in the beginning of free company and the way a lot room they’ve earlier than the beginning of the season.
At this precise second, after the opt-outs of Alex Bregman, Lucas Giolito, and Liam Hendriks, in addition to the opt-in of Trevor Story, the Crimson Sox sit at a payroll of $218.8M. It’s a close to certainty that the group will non-tender Nathaniel Lowe, whose arbitration estimate is $13.5M, which is able to carry them all the way down to $205.3M.
Wait, the Crimson Sox are already previous 200 million {dollars}? They haven’t signed anyone but! They want to herald three affect gamers to be a contender subsequent yr! How the hell did this occur!? Effectively, right here’s a listing:
- Garrett Crochet’s extension kicks in: $3.8M -> $28M
- Roman Anthony’s extension kicks in: $0.5M -> $16.25M
- Masataka Yoshida continues to be being paid $18M, and might be in 2027 as effectively.
- Rafael Devers’ “underwater contract” of $29M was changed with Jordan Hicks’ $12M wage, which runs by 2027. That is an precise sentence.
With a Aggressive Stability Tax (CBT) kicking in at $244M in 2026, Boston could be $38.7M away from that threshold, which they are going to presumably be prepared to transcend for the second consecutive yr. By way of penalties, the Crimson Sox might be taxed 20% on every greenback spent over the 2025 tax, a determine that has but to be confirmed. In 2026, the second consecutive yr past the CBT, they are going to be taxed 30%. All of those thrilling tax particulars could be found here.
The second threshold kicks in when the group goes past $264M. Passing that threshold not solely comes with the 30% tax, but additionally incurs an extra 12% surcharge. That is the vary, after all, the place the Crimson Sox ought to be spending, and so they can function with a payroll of as a lot as $284M earlier than reaching the third threshold. However, will they? That’s a unique story.
“It’s the Boston Crimson Sox, cease making excuses and spend just like the Boston Crimson Sox.” After being within the high 5 in payroll for your complete century, and even having the highest payroll in MLB in 2018 and 2019, the Sox haven’t come near spending with the most important of huge boys since. In February of 2020, the group traded Mookie Betts, and within the six years since (per Spotrac) have run payrolls that ranked eighth, sixth, fifth, twelfth, twelfth, and seventh. Their Opening Day payrolls have been even worse. So, sure, the sure, with out query, unequivocally (Bob Kraft voice) clear transfer right here is for the group to start out spending to their pre-Mookie methods. However I can’t plan for that to occur till I see it.
Moreover, there are the approaching labor points that almost all imagine will result in a lockout previous to the 2027 season. Will there be related tax thresholds and penalties within the subsequent settlement? Will groups which have gone over the tax in recent times be “reset” for a brand new settlement? Will there be a … wage cap!? The unknown might result in some groups selecting a wait-and-see strategy when committing cash past 2026.
All of that being mentioned, how may the Crimson Sox reduce further payroll previous to free company? After Nathaniel Lowe, listed below are the remainder of their arb-eligible gamers, alongside their MLB Trade Rumors estimated arbitration salaries:
Kutter, Romy, and Casas aren’t going wherever, except it’s by commerce. Winckowski will in all probability be non-tendered, which might solely save pennies. Bernardino or Wong may go both manner, however you’d probably be changing them with gamers of an identical wage. Due to this, Tanner Houck, who will probably miss all of 2026, looks as if a chance to be non-tendered. $4 million may very well be essential for the group to herald the affect gamers that they want for this season. Houck will solely have one season remaining earlier than hello hits free company after the 2027 season, and with the quantity of beginning pitching depth the Crimson Sox abruptly have, I feel he may very well be a shock reduce this offseason.
Eradicating Houck and Winckowski, the payroll could be round $200M, leaving the entrance workplace with $64M to spend earlier than hitting the second threshold. Assuming that they’d need save $5M or so for in-season pickups or a commerce or two on the deadline, they might in all probability not need to spend greater than $60M. Add within the Rob Refsnyder $2M contract that I’d count on to see by the tip of the month, and a few reduction pitchers that they’ll take fliers on, and it’ll be nearer to $55M remaining.
Another methods to shed payroll embrace buying and selling Yoshida and consuming 50-75% of his wage. Would a group pay $9M per yr for Masa? $5M? One other could be to incorporate Jarren Duran ($7.7M) or Ceddanne Rafaela ($6.3M) in a commerce for pitching. Wilyer Abreu continues to be a near-minimum wage participant, so that may not save any cash.
Relying on whether or not you have a look at Baseball America, Ben Clemens at Fangraphs, or Fangraphs crowd sourced estimates, the projected contracts of the highest free agent hitters the Crimson Sox might pursue embrace:
Alex Bregman: $30-35M AAV (4-6 years)
Kyle Schwarber: $28-37M AAV (3-4 years)
Pete Alonso: $25-30M AAV (4-7 years)
If the Crimson Sox are one way or the other capable of purchase two of the above gamers in free company, then their #2 beginning pitcher acquisition (a should) must come by way of commerce, and for affordable. This, I imagine, is why the Crimson Sox didn’t lengthen Lucas Giolito the $22M qualifying supply. They’re in a a lot totally different payroll place than they have been a yr in the past, once they provided Nick Pivetta the QO.
Some names that are in that cheap #2 starting pitcher grouping embrace:
MacKenzie Gore: 2026 $4.7M (proj.), management by 2027.
Joe Ryan: 2026 $5.8M (proj.), management by 2027.
Freddy Peralta: 2026 $8M, FA after 2026.
Whereas Joe Ryan makes essentially the most sense from that group, I’ve bother envisioning the Twins wanting three years of Jarren Duran in return as they enter a rebuild part. They’d in all probability need Abreu’s 4 years of management, and even Rafaela (6-7 years). Would three years of Duran and a pitching prospect be sufficient for the Brewers to commerce one yr of Freddy Peralta? Yup, that’s what I’m going with. Plus, the salaries match, so it makes my life simpler for this train.
So right here’s my soffseason prediction (so as of significance):
- Signal Alex Bregman, 5 years, $155M ($31M AAV). Add 3 years, $75M to the two/$80M that he opted out of.
- Signal Pete Alonso: 5 years, $145M ($29M AAV).
- Commerce Jarren Duran + Prime-10 Prospect + Prime-20 Prospect to MIL for Freddy Peralta (salaries almost match).
- Commerce Masataka Yoshida. Crimson Sox pay $12M, receiving group pays $6M for every of the ultimate two years.
- Non-tender Tanner Houck ($4.0M), and Josh Winckowski ($0.8M).
- Re-sign Rob Refsnyder – 1 yr, $2M.
- Encourage Jordan Hicks to retire.
Exterior of Hicks, this may all be finished whereas preserving the Sox below the $264 million second threshold for the posh tax. Or, OR, and this can be controversial … they might simply begin being the Boston Crimson Sox once more.
I’m to listen to how our readers would need the Crimson Sox to spend this offseason if confined to a $60-65 million vary for 2026. Go away your excellent offseason plan within the feedback.
