Kyle Harrison was the headliner within the Rafael Devers commerce. Whereas Craig Breslow stated the Purple Sox would possibly win extra video games with out Devers, to me, the deal was all the time a transfer for the long run. Jordan Hicks is a pitcher who wants an offseason of labor beneath his belt to be unlocked. James Tibbs received shipped off for Dustin Might, which by no means actually made sense to me as a result of Dustin Can also felt like a pitcher who wants an offseason of labor to be unlocked, however he was on an expiring deal so I suppose the Purple Sox thought in any other case. Harrison was a extremely touted prospect who had already debuted within the majors however by no means actually reached the heights many thought he might. He’s nonetheless younger and a piece in progress, however he additionally looks like a pitcher who wants an offseason to achieve his potential. With an injured listing of pitchers so long as a CVS receipt, he didn’t have that luxurious earlier than he was referred to as on, and now he’s a key a part of a pitching workers in the midst of a playoff hunt. So what do we’ve got within the lefty?
Harrison is tough to judge as a result of he’s bounced round from degree to degree so usually. However he made 24 large league begins in 2024 and threw 124 innings. If a numerologist might clarify the importance of the quantity 24, I might recognize it. Till then, I’ll use 2024 as a jumping-off level.
Each pitcher ought to actually be thought of two pitchers: one in opposition to lefties, and one in opposition to righties. After all, the sum of the 2 components determines one’s total skill, however breaking it down by aspect provides us a greater image.
Towards lefties, Harrison used a two-pitch combine that labored for him in 2024. He pitched backwards, utilizing his curveball early in counts and his four-seam fastball to place hitters away. They hit .260 in opposition to him, however that’s partially as a result of poor batted-ball luck and a small pattern dimension, as opponents loaded lineups with right-handed hitters. His 21.3% Ok-BB% was a stellar mark, and often a predictor of future success.
Towards righties, his arsenal didn’t play as nicely. He tried the same strategy, utilizing a curveball and changeup early and turning to his four-seam with two strikes. That strategy required the large, sluggish curveball that breaks towards right-handed hitters to be within the zone, the place it was hit onerous. His changeup wasn’t within the zone sufficient to constantly earn strikes both. To completely unlock Harrison, he wants a pitch to throw to right-handed hitters for strikes.
When the Purple Sox acquired Harrison, they despatched him to Triple-A to seek out that pitch. They adopted the recommendation of each web pitching guru* ever: “simply** add a cutter”. It’s by no means as straightforward as “simply add a cutter***”, although. In his first begin in opposition to Tampa, Harrison used his cutter, however didn’t command it successfully sufficient for it to be the strike-getter he desires it to be.
In addition they altered his changeup grip, choosing the flavor-of-the-month “kick change”, which offers a further drop on the expense of horizontal motion. In addition they flipped his recreation plan, choosing extra early fastballs and cutters, utilizing the secondary pitches later in counts. General, the plan labored for six innings of one-run baseball in his first begin for the Purple Sox in opposition to the Rays. Nonetheless, I can’t assist however marvel how repeatable it’s.
Let’s check out the way it appeared in apply, in Harrison’s current begin in opposition to the Rays.
*I don’t declare to be a guru, however I did counsel this precise factor for an additional publication on the night time Harrison was acquired.
**It’s by no means this straightforward. They let anybody write issues on the web, even me. Who determined I used to be certified?
***However… they did virtually instantly give him a cutter, so perhaps I used to be on to one thing and am certified?
We’ll begin with Junior Caminero within the fourth inning.
Right here’s an ideal cutter to start out the at-bat. It lands completely on the excessive, inside nook of the strike zone. The form isn’t something insane, nevertheless it has sufficient horizontal motion in direction of the batter that it’ll create referred to as strikes and foul balls. Early in counts, he can throw this up and in, or backdoor for a referred to as strike. Nice begin.
Right here’s a cool thought, nevertheless it isn’t executed. He tries to throw a four-seam fastball to the identical spot, however misses inside. By throwing one other fastball in the identical location, he’s betting that Caminero will suppose it’s one other cutter and depart it, considering it can minimize off the plate, taking a referred to as strike when it doesn’t break. So far as misses go, this can be a good one as a result of it’s inside fairly than over the plate.
He goes again to the cutter, hits his spot once more, and Caminero can’t get the barrel to the ball. That is precisely how the cutter must be used. It doesn’t must generate swings and misses, simply early strikes, and weak contact. The difficulty is he hasn’t discovered the texture for the pitch simply but. It’s early, however to date, he hasn’t hit the quadrant of the zone he’s aiming for steadily sufficient.
Harrison solely lately turned 24 years outdated, and he began throwing the pitch in June. It’s onerous to study a pitch on the fly, and he’s incorporating it in opposition to main league hitting. The command must be higher, however with an offseason of labor, that would turn out to be a actuality. If the cutter can turn out to be a dependable pitch and permit him to drop his four-seam utilization in opposition to righties from 60% to about 45%, he ought to see his walks drop and his strikeouts rise.
With out the cutter, he has a four-seam fastball, slurve, and changeup that he can throw to righties. The four-seam is great. Its velocity has been down lately, however I’d anticipate the Purple Sox’s offseason enchancment plan for Harrison to incorporate including velo. Even at 92 mph, its 1.7 height-adjusted vertical strategy angle is an outlier, serving to the pitch playup. The slurve has by no means missed bats at a excessive price, partially as a result of the form isn’t one which sometimes performs to the alternative hand. It’s sluggish at about 81 mph, and actually must be positioned on the again foot to generate whiffs.
Right here’s an instance of the difficulty along with his slurve. On the earlier pitch, Mangum fouled off a slurve that was barely larger than this one. The second time round, he was capable of get round it and double down the road. He’s all the time used the slurve, however I ponder if a more durable breaking ball is the reply.
The changeup has proven flashes, however as I discussed, it’s new and isn’t a dominant left-handed changeup such as you see from Christopher Sanchez or Tarik Skubal. Right here’s a great one.
With Harrison’s fastball, a well-spotted changeup must be a strong weapon. Since becoming a member of the Purple Sox, he’s solely thrown it seven instances, which makes me suppose he’s not overly assured within the really feel simply but. FanGraphs’ Stuff+ mannequin likes the brand new form, however the command isn’t on par with the stuff simply but.
Harrison is a challenge, however the bones are there. He was the largest piece of a commerce involving a nine-figure participant, so it’s straightforward to anticipate loads out of him. With an low season of labor beneath his belt, I feel he can turn out to be a dependable a part of the rotation for years to return. For the remainder of this season, he’s in all probability finest utilized in small samples.
