You’re in all probability aware of this story, however simply in case it’s international, let’s evaluate:
About twenty years in the past, the Purple Sox discovered themselves in a seemingly not possible place through the mid phases of what turned out to be a traditional ALCS. To place it bluntly, they wanted a comeback by no means earlier than seen within the lengthy historical past of the game to maintain their season alive. However towards all odds, they made magic occur at Fenway Park and compelled a Sport 6 on the street. They then gained that Sport 6 by a rating of 4-2, which included a house run from the man batting out of the No. 9 spot. Then, the next evening they bought a house run to take the lead within the high of the primary inning of Sport 7, and effectively, you understand the remainder from there.
Besides, perhaps you don’t, as a result of the paragraph above doesn’t simply describe the 2004 ALCS; it additionally tells the story of the 2008 ALCS down each final element. The Purple Sox had been about to do it once more, after which all of sudden, they simply didn’t. The distinction in fact was that in contrast to the Yankees, who folded within the face of this stress like a collapsing empire, the upstart Rays managed to thwart the surging Sox and stop not solely probably the most spectacular comebacks in baseball historical past, but additionally the potential beginning of a dynasty.
To completely put in context what was misplaced in that Sport 7 defeat, we first have to return to Sport 5 when the Purple Sox trailed 3-1 within the sequence, after which discovered themselves down 7-0 within the seventh inning of that sport. What got here subsequent might be the best memory-holed comeback in franchise historical past. The Sox scored 4 within the seventh, three within the eighth, and one within the ninth to finish what may have, and admittedly ought to have been one of many biggest video games in franchise historical past.
Take a look at the complete highlights right here:
The Purple Sox had been down to date on this sport, their sequence win expectancy was really effectively beneath what it ever reached within the 2004 ALCS. For extra element, we are able to have a look at the win probability graph for the series on Baseball Reference, and there’s really some extent the place the Purple Sox win likelihood rounds to ZERO PERCENT within the high of the seventh inning (from 0.3 %).
Evaluate this to the 2004 ALCS where the series win probability (primarily based purely on arithmetic) bottomed out at round two %:
Now I’m not right here to let you know the 2008 ALCS comeback would have been higher than the 2004 ALCS comeback. Anyone with a mind who watched baseball throughout that period is aware of the Yankees had been the satan who at all times managed to return out one step forward. So with the intention to slay that dragon, the Purple Sox needed to beat each the Yankees and all of the historical past that got here with them, and that’s really easy to underestimate all these years later.
Nonetheless, I’m right here to say the 2008 Purple Sox missed a possibility to submit a comeback that was a lot nearer to one thing historic than folks understand, and possibly ought to agonize over. When you’re in search of one thing else to match it to, it really traces up fairly near the Patriots comeback vs. the Falcons within the Tremendous Bowl, which bottomed out with a with a New England win probability of 0.4% towards a franchise that lacks any form of storied historical past. Sound acquainted?
Nevertheless it goes even deeper. When the Purple Sox took the sector for Sport 7 within the 2008 ALCS, they had been gunning for his or her tenth straight win when going through elimination within the ALCS (having already accomplished comebacks from down 3-0 to the Yankees in 2004 and 3-1 to Cleveland in 2007). This was going to be the ultimate jewel in that crown. Their coronation day for formally changing into probably the most not possible crew to kill we’ve ever seen. After which, towards that backdrop, they might face the Phillies going for his or her third title in 5 years.
However as a substitute, they wouldn’t win one other playoff sport for the subsequent 5 years.
The loss additionally wrecked what may have been an ideal topping to Dustin Pedroia’s MVP season. He posted a 1.200 OPS on this sequence together with that first inning dwelling run in Sport 7, which within the second felt like the start of a knockout punch. The truth is, one of many largest motive the Sox didn’t win this sequence is as a result of the man batting behind him hit simply .154 with a .697 OPS, however since his title is David Ortiz, it doesn’t match the narrative that goes with the remainder of his postseason profession, which might be one more reason many followers have memory-holed this sequence.
Nevertheless it actually can’t be overstated how a lot issues change if that Sport 7 goes the opposite method, as a result of it’s not simply the Purple Sox stalled ascent that issues right here — this story can also be in regards to the Rays. There’s no strategy to undoubtedly show this, but when the Rays lose that sequence, I feel there’s a lot much less buy-in to all of their philosophies throughout the group from high to backside going ahead. I’m speaking from the gamers to the coaches to the entrance workplace employees. Sure, they gained the division that yr, and sure, they might have been considerably aggressive going ahead, but when they’d adopted that common season up with a catastrophic collapse in October, that may have hijacked their momentum and consumed the franchise like a virus taking down a bunch.
It’s a must to keep in mind that earlier than 2008, the Rays NEVER had a season the place they misplaced fewer than 90 video games. They had been a complete laughing inventory, and they might have been considered as an excellent larger laughing inventory in the event that they blew that sequence, a lot the identical method the Atlanta Falcons are considered as a laughing inventory now. However as a substitute, the Rays doing what the 2004 Yankees couldn’t do in Sport 7 legitimized every thing the membership did that yr. No matter whether or not you believed of their model of baseball or not, they now had a seat on the grownup desk, and since that sequence, they’ve really gone on to make the playoffs extra instances than the Purple Sox.
Now once more, I may very well be mistaken, however I simply don’t assume their strategies get the identical degree of buy-in if this goes the opposite method. In a world the place the Purple Sox win the pennant in 2008, the 2011 collapse to the Rays doesn’t occur in the identical method, the individuals who left after that season don’t see the identical ending, and maybe the Purple Sox don’t finally turn out to be the “Rays of the north” with possession getting bored with seeing Tampa obtain comparable common season success yr after yr regardless of working with a fraction of the payroll.
In that sense, it’s sort of becoming this Sport 7 loss kicked off a stretch of seasons through which yearly bought worse for the Purple Sox. They went from successful the World Collection in 2007, to falling one sport wanting making it right here in 2008, to getting bounced within the LDS spherical in 2009, to arising simply wanting the postseason in 2010 with an injured roster, to a horrific collapse to overlook the playoff in 2011, to the Bobby Valentine fiasco in 2012.
Perhaps this loss didn’t harm as a lot within the second as a result of it was solely 4 years faraway from your complete fanbase being so relieved they simply bought one title after ending an 86 yr drought? Or maybe it was as a result of being within the ALCS yearly simply appeared like the brand new regular? (Certainly there could be different probabilities quickly.) Or perhaps, you had been among the many individuals who thought it was good that baseball would have an opportunity to reach Florida. However nevertheless you felt on the time of this sequence loss, it’s virtually not possible to not really feel worse about now with hindsight.
In contrast to the 2003 ALCS Sport 7 loss, which stung with the drive of a thousand killer bees within the second earlier than softening over time, this one appeared extra palatable within the second, however has since developed a bitter aftertaste. It’s loopy to consider, however the Aaron Boone dwelling run has been largely folded into the 2004 championship storyline as a previous chapter, and Boone’s boneheaded managerial strikes continues to pay dividends to this present day.
In the meantime, the residue of the 2008 ALCS nonetheless lingers. As a lot as beating the Yankees in 2004 worn out the Purple Sox previous, this sequence proved to be a gap salvo for his or her curler coaster future.
After which there’s the sport itself. The Purple Sox had been utterly shut down by Matt Garza — A man who wasn’t good within the LDS earlier than this sequence, and wasn’t good within the World Collection after it. Whereas a strong pitcher over his 12-year stint within the majors, he was particularly good on this evening, going 118 pitches deep and permitting only one run over seven innings of labor. The truth is, after that Dustin Pedroia’s first inning dwelling run, the Sox didn’t report one other hit till the seventh inning.
So by itself, that’s haunting. However what got here subsequent is perhaps even worse. First, the Rays used 5 totally different pitchers to get by the eighth inning, and it labored. (Their model of baseball was taking on even when we didn’t understand it within the second.) The Purple Sox had first and second no person out with the center of the order arising, and so they nonetheless couldn’t plate something. Pedroia missed a really hittable pitch up within the zone on a 1-1 providing, Ortiz grounded out, Coco Crisp may have been secure on that play if he went for the bag as a substitute of making an attempt to take out the fielder on the slide, after which David Worth got here in to finish the inning (and finally the sport and the sequence).
For a man who ended up struggling in postseason play for a lot of his profession, he was in a position to stand as much as the warmth as a rookie on this second. And that’s sort of one other unlucky wrinkle of this sport. All these years later, it’s doable David Worth did as a lot to price the Purple Sox a World Collection as he did to assist win them one (he was legitimately nice within the 2018 run for the Sox).
However no matter these particulars, this sequence is what birthed the fashionable day Rays and the franchise we all know at this time. And worse but, it additionally slammed the door shut on Boston’s quest to turn out to be one thing grander. It actually was the tip of 1 period, and the start of one other. Regardless of successful two extra titles since this loss, the Sox have by no means been in a position to recapture that very same degree of constant success year-in and year-out that outlined the mid 2000s and ended on this evening in 2008.
Till we see the Sox reestablish a run of sustained success for a strong handful of years, the residue of this loss will proceed to hang-out the franchise in its personal bizarre method. Maybe they break away and are at the start a brand new run of relevance with this younger core proper now. However with the intention to preserve it going, they should get this offseason proper, and a part of that, oddly sufficient, goes to require not performing an excessive amount of just like the Rays.
