Jarren Duran positioned eighth in American League MVP voting in 2024, between Tarik Skubal and Yordan Alvarez. The next season, his 3.9 fWAR output was a disappointment. Offensively, his offensive output was most hampered by a .050 lower in his slugging share, which incorporates 13 fewer extra-base hits. His strikeout charge additionally elevated by about 2.5% from 2024 to 2025. Defensively, he recorded 23 defensive runs saved in 2024 and simply 9 in 2025. His outs above common fell from 10 to -2. Some positional changes are occurring, and he performed rather more left area in 2025, however his DRS in heart area alone fell from 17 to -2.
some under-the-hood numbers, Duran’s elite bat velocity remained constant, and he was pitched in the same method by way of pitch sorts seen. Mechanically, he tinkered along with his stance, however the modifications have been per regular season-long fluctuations. Whereas there are probably a number of components at play in Duran’s decreased output, a significant component was the pitches that he selected to swing at.
In 2025, 26.5% of the pitches Duran noticed have been over the center of the plate. That quantity is barely under his 2024 charge, nevertheless it’s proper across the league common. In his breakout marketing campaign, he swung at 73.3% of these pitches. In his down 12 months, he solely swung at 68.2%. Whereas which may appear to be a small dropoff, his general swing charge was only one% decrease, that means he was swinging at different, worse pitches.
Whenever you let pitches over the center of the plate go, they’re referred to as strikes. Whenever you’re behind within the rely, you don’t see as many good pitches to hit, until the pitcher makes a mistake. The previous two seasons, Jarren Duran has had a .453 weighted on-base common when he’s forward within the rely. Behind within the rely, that quantity is .220. His chase charge can be almost 10% increased when the pitcher is forward.
Duran can be an excellent fastball hitter — he posted a .368 wOBA towards fastballs in 2025, in comparison with a .265 towards breaking balls. That’s partially as a result of extra breaking balls come when pitchers are forward within the rely, however the level stays.
Defensively, I bear in mind a couple of events like this, the place a miscommunication between Duran and Ceddanne Rafaela led to a fly ball turning into successful. I don’t have statistical assist for this one, however I can’t bear in mind most of these performs taking place in 2024.
All of this may really feel self-explanatory, however I feel there will be strain to work counts, take pitches, and hit with two strikes. Enjoying subsequent to a Gold Glove winner who makes spotlight reel performs on a nightly foundation may additionally result in a bent to be passive within the area. Whereas some degree of persistence is important to achieve the majors, I don’t suppose that’s who Duran is. There’s a time and place to power the difficulty (not main off first base within the eighth inning), however Duran ought to have an extended leash. Swing on the first pitch if it’s there. Stretch singles into doubles, even when it means getting thrown out every so often. Steal home!
I don’t know Jarren Duran personally. I solely know him from watching him play baseball and seeing him in interviews. I don’t know what’s occurring in his mind, however he appears to be like like somebody who’s pondering an excessive amount of and never letting his instincts take over. In 2023, Dustin Pedroia told Duran to “act such as you’re going to hit the f—— s— out of the ball.” He improved defensively within the outfield on the advice of Jackie Bradley Jr., which boiled all the way down to “apply taking part in outfield”, which led to him getting higher jumps on the ball. Given non-baseball, however nonetheless on-the-field occasions which have occurred in Duran’s profession, an affordable particular person may inform Duran to decelerate and suppose earlier than he acts. Whereas I’ve no World Collection rings, zero profession fWAR, and a CPA fairly than a therapist’s license, my unqualified recommendation to Jarren Duran is once they offer you a pitch to hit, let it rip.
