Can Willson Contreras bring first base stability to the Red Sox?

Boston acquired Willson “Don’t Overlook The Second L” Contreras in late December from the St. Louis Cardinals, in change for SP Hunter Dobbins and pitching prospects Yhoiker Fajardo and Blake Aita. A catcher for the primary 9 years of his profession with the Cubs and Cardinals, Contreras shifted to first base a 12 months in the past, taking part in 120 video games on the place to go along with 15 at designated hitter.

Contreras is anticipated to supply a stage of stability, each offensively and defensively, that the primary base place has not had in years. Over the previous six years, here’s a record of the leaders in video games performed at first base. Notice that solely two of these six gamers have had a optimistic WAR on Baseball Reference:

Except Casas’s 2023 season, it’s been an unsightly scene for fairly a while now. Luckily, when he’s been on the sector, Contreras has been a mannequin of consistency. The hope is that shifting to first base will maintain him accessible, because it did for many of final season. In his 4 seasons since turning 30, Contreras has had an OPS between .791 and .848 in every season, a wRC+ between 124 and 141 in every season, and between 20 and 22 dwelling runs within the three full seasons that he performed. Contreras performed simply 84 video games in 2024, on account of a damaged arm after which a damaged finger (no marvel he stopped catching), however he hit 15 dwelling runs in that restricted time.

In his age-33 season final 12 months, Contreras was within the top-20 percentile in Barrel % and Exhausting Hit%, in addition to the top-5 percentile in Bat Pace, an important signal for an getting older hitter, and certain why the Pink Sox felt snug committing to him for 2 seasons. Moreover, his spray chart reveals that the Monster in left must be inviting for Contreras to construct on his 52 extra-base hits (31 doubles) from a 12 months in the past:

He dealt with the transfer to first base masterfully, with a +6 in Outs Above Common (ninetieth percentile), and nonetheless maintains a 76th percentile Arm Energy. Contreras hasn’t dominated out the opportunity of catching, if wanted in a pinch, however we shouldn’t count on to see a lot of that. Roster Useful resource initiatives Contreras to hit within the cleanup spot, with the safety of Wilyer Abreu hitting behind him towards right-handers. It might be nice to see Contreras get his stroll fee again as much as the profession common of 9.8%, after it dropped to 7.8% a 12 months in the past, however his 23 HBPs (2nd in NL) don’t issue into that fee.

Willson Contreras has not had a bWAR season of lower than 2.5 since his rookie 12 months (2020 excluded), and if he can maintain that development going whereas staying wholesome, we should always lastly see this place be much less of a fear in 2026.

After all, the rationale that Boston wants some stability at first base is that after the 2023 season from Triston Casas, which was anticipated to be a springboard to a wonderful profession, he has hit some snags. Casas missed 118 days in 2024 with an harm to his ribs, after which ruptured his patellar tendon on Could 2nd of final 12 months, ending his season and resulting in a prolonged restoration. When on the sector for 92 video games over these two seasons, Casas slashed .222/.318/.412 with a 29.3 Ok% and a 100 wRC+.

Casas has three seasons remaining in Boston earlier than reaching free company, and certainly will need 2026 to be a season by which he stays on the sector as soon as he returns from this devastating knee harm. Boston, equally, would like to see this if there may be any likelihood of regaining some commerce worth. Casas has seemed to be shifting effectively in defensive drills throughout spring coaching, and the studies on his return timeline have been extra optimistic in latest weeks. If Casas is again by Could 1st, it will be a win for everybody, however will make the designated hitter place much more crowded than it’s as we speak.

Unlikely to be prepared for Opening Day, Gonzalez performed 58 video games at first base a season in the past, 42 at second base, and a pair of video games at third base. He feasted on left-handed pitching, an space by which the workforce might wrestle, which I outlined recently. By no means thoughts the lefties, Romy slashed .305/.343/.483 towards all pitchers a season in the past, along with his 341 plate appearances being no small pattern dimension. My worries are {that a} shoulder harm suffered final September remains to be lingering with Gonzalez, however, like Casas, if he could make it again through the first half of the season, he offers nice insurance coverage on the place.

“The Bench” must be Triston Casas and Romy Gonzalez as soon as they get wholesome. Within the meantime, two gamers who will likely be previewed extra considerably at different positions ought to not less than be talked about right here till the others return. Andruw Monasterio has performed 36 innings at first base in his two seasons with Milwaukee, regardless of by no means making an look there within the minor leagues. Per Statcast, he’s had 5 balls hit to him and made all the performs. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has performed (checks notes) zero innings at first base over 920 Main League Baseball video games, however he says he’s prepared to strive! From The Boston Globe on Sunday:

“I’ve performed quite a lot of second base so I’m snug on that aspect of the sector,” Kiner-Falefa stated. “It’s simply getting the footwork down. I hope I get an opportunity to play there. It might be enjoyable to say I performed all 9 positions as soon as my profession is over.”

Nick Sogard appeared in 30 video games a 12 months in the past with the Pink Sox, hitting .260 in 96 at-bats, and but the place he spent essentially the most time at was at first base (12 video games, 11 begins). Sogard additionally began each Recreation 1 and Recreation 2 of the Wild Card sequence at second base, going 2-for-6 with a double. At 28 years of age, Sogard is sort of assured to have a stint, or three, with the large membership in 2026, and it could’t be dominated out that he’s on the Opening Day roster.

Nathan Hickey performed 72 video games at first base for Worcester a 12 months in the past. He slashed .234/.325/.408, with 17 dwelling runs and 75 RBI. The 26-year-old would want to make some vital strides in 2026 to be in consideration for a call-up.

Utilizing The BATX projections, right here is the fiftieth percentile final result anticipated from Pink Sox first basemen this 12 months. After all, the 1300+ plate appearances beneath won’t all be at first base, as a wholesome Gonzalez would combine in at second base, Casas (and even Contreras) ought to see a while at DH, and Monasterio and Kiner-Falefa are solely first basemen in case of emergency.

The primary base place within the AL East is an absolute gauntlet. Being ranked “final” on this record is not any slight in any way, however the rankings should be completed.