On Friday night time, just some days earlier than the New England Patriots try to assume their rightful place as the category of the NFL (narrator: they didn’t), I used to be doing what any 28-year-old man does on a Friday night time: speaking about reduction pitching. As I used to be scrolling Twitter, I ran right into a tweet from Sammy James, a co-host of the Play Tessie Podcast. Sammy is at all times considering exterior the field with regards to roster strikes, and pitched previous buddy Jalen Beeks as a possible match for the left-handed reduction position within the bullpen.
He highlighted Beeks’ changeup, noting the remarkably low batting common and slugging share in opposition to it. In case you take a look at these numbers and nothing else, it seems to be an elite pitch. I dug in just a little bit additional, and whereas I discovered that the pitch was stable, I wouldn’t place it among the many league’s finest changeups.
None of it is a knock on Sammy. He’s bought nice insights and has as many concepts on methods to enhance the roster as anybody. On the similar time, I’ve written what seems like 1,500 pitcher evaluations, and don’t suppose I’ve ever damaged down my methodology.
The Crimson Sox might use a left-handed reliever. Final season, Justin Wilson, Brennan Bernardino, and Chris Murphy have been the primary lefties out of the pen for the Crimson Sox. Because it stands, none of these three is on the 40-man roster. Outdoors of Aroldis Chapman, there aren’t many left-handed relievers with main league expertise on the crew, making an addition to the group earlier than the season begins seemingly.
There’s not essentially a rush to accumulate a reliever. Whereas it’s positively a gap, as groups lower down their rosters, there will probably be alternatives to discover a lefty, they usually gained’t want a lot time to stretch out earlier than the season. Nonetheless, having our bodies in camp to see what you will have is an effective factor. So, with all that being stated, let’s take a look at one possibility and see what he would possibly convey to the desk for Boston.
The majority of my evaluation is completed with three web sites: Pitcher List, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs. Baseball Savant is at all times a good start line, only for their dashboard data.
I deal with the left and proper panels, though the center panel might be the most well-liked amongst individuals who fake that they know what they’re speaking about (that’s one other rant for an additional day). On the left, we see the pitch utilization chart, damaged out by handedness. Handedness is every part. Garrett Crochet throws his sinker 16% of the time, which makes it seem like a secondary providing. After we cut up it, we see it’s his most thrown pitch by a large margin to lefties at 37%. For Beeks, we are able to see he’s a reasonably fastball-heavy pitcher, utilizing a changeup most frequently as a change of tempo, and mixing in a cutter in opposition to lefties. On the best, I wish to see the arm angle, as a result of it supplies some context about pitch usages. Beeks is extra excessive, which suggests he’ll seemingly have a tougher time producing East-West motion. The motion chart helps see how a lot of the plate a pitcher can cowl, nevertheless it’s arduous to attract conclusions from motion alone.
Pitching is about getting outs. The easiest way to get outs is to throw strikes. That’s what we search for subsequent: what pitches does he throw for strikes, and the way does he finish at-bats? Beeks is a left-handed reliever, and whereas the three-batter minimal rule means he’ll should get righties out as properly, I’m largely involved with what he does in same-handed matchups.
Going over to Pitcher Checklist, we are able to filter by handedness and see when Beeks is throwing every pitch.
The correct facet of the Counts tab is categorized into three sections: Early, Behind, and Two-Strike. Early consists of the primary two pitches of an at-bat in addition to 1-1 pitches, behind consists of 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, and 3-1 counts, and two-strike is any two-strike rely (duh). If it have been as much as me, I’d have an extra view displaying the share of every bucket by pitch kind, however we are able to use Baseball Savant’s search function to search out that. Beeks, for instance, throws a four-seam fastball 58.3% of the time in “early” counts. Placing all of this collectively, it seems to be like he makes use of his four-seam fastball and cutter to get strikes, and his changeup to place hitters away.
Now that we perceive what Beeks is attempting to do, we are able to assess his effectiveness. The overview tab on Pitcher Checklist is nice for this.
Paring it down to at least one pitch, we get good percentiles and averages, though typically I’m skeptical of how correct the percentiles are (They’re primarily based on complete stats and don’t change primarily based on the handedness filter, for instance). Regardless, strike price is at all times the primary place I look, and Beeks fastball has an enormous quantity. It additionally comes with a large 60% zone price, in addition to a mediocre 9.5% swinging strike price and 15.2% referred to as strike price. A 70% strike price with swinging and referred to as strike numbers that low seemingly means the ball is in play loads. So how’s the contact?
Right here’s the place you is perhaps tempted to take a look at batting common or slugging share, however these can lead you astray as a result of they’re solely contemplating the ultimate pitch of an at-bat. A pitch that’s thrown solely in two-strike counts out of the zone goes to have a low batting common, as a result of it’s going to end in strikeouts, weak contact, or be taken for a ball. I like to make use of Ultimate Contact Fee (ICR) as a result of the denominator is complete batted ball occasions, eradicating strikeouts from the equation. For a fastball, we wish to see a quantity under 40%. In Beeks’ case, the 53.5% mark in opposition to lefties is excessive. That’s partially as a result of the pitch is within the zone so typically, but in addition as a result of the form isn’t a lot of an outlier.
Beeks additionally throws nearly all of his cutters early in counts, though 34% utilization in two-strike counts is pretty excessive as properly. A take a look at the metrics exhibits a 15.8% swinging strike price and a 17.1% referred to as strike price. The strike price is extremely low at 51%, whereas the zone price can also be pretty low at 38%. As a result of it’s capable of return each referred to as strikes and swinging strikes, my assumption is he’s deploying it extra as a slider in two-strike counts. Trying on the heatmaps (under) that seems to be the case. Additional, for those who take a look at the actions, he throws some cutters as arduous as 88 mph with much less vertical drop, whereas others are as gradual as 82 mph.
The pitch returned a 44.4% perfect contact price, which is excessive for an off-speed pitch that isn’t within the zone a lot. It didn’t induce many chases both. It was capable of generate whiffs at a good price, nevertheless it was a pitch that lefties dealt with properly for essentially the most half. Total, when wanting on the pitches designed to be strike-getters, each are hit pretty arduous, and solely the four-seam returns constant strikes.
We’ll circle again to the strike-getting pitches, however let’s soar forward to the changeup. Similar-handed changeups are controversial. Some individuals hate them, some individuals are superb with them. I believe it depends upon the changeup, however that’s a dialogue for an additional day.
Beeks throws his changeup 26.6% of the time to lefites, most of that are in two-strike counts. He throws it primarily down and inside to lefties, which at all times provides me pause, nevertheless it seems to work for him. Whereas it’s solely within the zone 35% of the time, the 42% chase price and 20% swinging strike price are each glorious. The ICR price was 0%, however the pattern was extremely small. It’s been a stable pitch all through his profession, although, so it’s protected to say that hitters will proceed to wrestle with it.
Whereas his changeup is an effective pitch, I’ll once more warning in opposition to utilizing plate look stage stats reminiscent of batting common in opposition to as your barometer. Take Jojo Romero, for instance. He throws his changeup 22.3% of the time, and opponents hit simply .167 in opposition to it. On the similar time, it was by no means within the zone and solely returned a 14% swinging strike price and 50% referred to as strike price. Whereas the pitch wasn’t getting punished, it additionally wasn’t doing its job by producing whiffs; batters have been simply letting it go for a ball. A .167 batting common would possibly make you suppose it’s the most effective changeups in baseball, nevertheless it’s wildly inefficient.
So now that we’ve checked out all three of his pitches in opposition to lefties, what I see is a pitcher with putaway pitch, however one who must discover a technique to get forward in counts. Whereas his four-seam returns strikes, it will get hit too arduous for him to throw it 50% of the time. His 2025 cutter exhibits some promise in its swinging and referred to as strike numbers, nevertheless it doesn’t get sufficient chase to assist a 38% zone price.
He was very profitable in opposition to lefties in 2025, so there isn’t essentially a must make modifications, however there’s room for enchancment early in counts. I’m speculating at this level, however a return to his 2024 cutter, which featured extra vertical raise and was barely tougher, might pay dividends. He used the pitch extra typically, and whereas it wasn’t returning strikes at a excessive price, the contact in opposition to it was poor. Excessive cutters can typically drop again into the zone for referred to as strikes, which might play properly off his four-seam fastball. Once more, Beeks was nice in opposition to lefties in 2025, however the contact stats in opposition to his fastball recommend some regression there if he doesn’t make modifications.
I’ve written 1,500 phrases about Jalen Beeks to date, so I gained’t repeat the method, however it is best to. Use Pitcher Checklist and Baseball Savant, and inform me what you concentrate on Beeks in opposition to righties. It’s enjoyable. I promise.
There’s another half I haven’t talked about, and it’s arguably an important. Watch the pitcher pitch. Whereas an enormous swinging strike price can’t be faked, you would possibly see a pitcher who’s lacking spots time and again and posit that they gained’t have the identical success constantly. Within the case of Beeks, you’ll discover an unorthodox supply that appears to be misleading. It jogs my memory of Kutter Crawford, however the ball is hidden at his hip quite than his ear. Nerds (like myself) run baseball (not me), however the sport continues to be performed on the sphere. There’s loads to study by watching.
