It’s straightforward to overlook, however 4 of the final 5 Patriots-Steelers video games have been determined by one rating.
Sunday must be no completely different.
Each groups are 1-1 forward of their first battle in New England since 2019, with Pittsburgh slated as a slight highway favourite. Final weekend, Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers dropped a disappointing house opener to the Seahawks due to a pair turnovers and a significant particular groups gaffe. The Pats, in the meantime, try to win back-to-back video games for the primary time in virtually three years following a highlight-laden 33-27 win in Miami.
After topping the 30-point mark for the primary time since that very same 2022 season, will Mike Vrabel and Co. finish one other franchise drought this week?
Right here’s what to observe for Sunday:
When the Patriots run
The place is T.J. Watt?
That has been the start line for opponents’ sport plans to this point in opposition to Pittsburgh, which has allowed six yards per keep it up runs away from Watt by two video games, according to ESPN. The previous Defensive Participant of the Yr just isn’t the identical elite move rusher he as soon as was, however his run protection nonetheless ranks among the many finest within the league amongst edge defenders. The Patriots will wish to stray from Watt — who usually aligns to the offense’s proper — even when the Steelers discover new options to cease runs off the left aspect.
After that, it’s as much as Rhamondre Stevenson to proceed breaking tackles like he did final week. Stevenson’s six damaged tackles at Miami have been a single-game excessive courting again to final October. And if the Pats can squeeze extra from rookie TreVeyon Henderson (37 rush yards in two video games), massive performs may await in opposition to a leaky Steelers protection that’s permitting greater than 30 factors per sport.
When the Patriots move
Extra time and play-action, please.
Drake Maye loved the most effective begin of his younger profession final weekend in opposition to the Dolphins, thanks partly to an adjusted sport plan and far improved move safety. The Pats’ offensive line allowed simply two pressures, and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels cranked up his use of play-action throws. Maye threw his first landing after a play faux and may be capable to exploit Steelers linebackers Patrick Queen and Payton Wilson in the identical method. Each rank among the many worst protection linebackers within the league, per Professional Soccer Focus grades.
Watt and defensive lineman Cameron Heyward would be the focuses of the Patriots’ safety plan with edge rusher Alex Highsmith (one sack, 3 QB hits final week) dominated out. Heyward will take a look at rookie left guard Jared Wilson and middle Garrett Bradbury in a method they haven’t been this season.
One query: how a lot work will the extensive receivers see?
Former All-Professional nook Jalen Ramsey appears rejuvenated by his first two video games as a Steeler, and no Patriots wideout topped 35 yards final week in Miami. Kayshon Boutte did rating a first-quarter landing, however that was the one catch he made all sport. In the meantime, Stefon Diggs performed simply 51% of the Pats’ offensive snaps in South Florida and has 89 receiving yards on the season.
When the Steelers run
Final week, the Patriots missed 14 tackles in Miami. If they will repair that for this weekend, they need to management the Steelers’ floor sport.
Jaylen Warren leads Pittsburgh with simply 85 dashing yards, whereas Kenneth Gainwell (39 yards) is the one different again of be aware. Warren has damaged 5 tackles this season, per Professional Soccer Focus, and drew reward from Vrabel this week. Total, although, the Steelers’ run offense ranks twenty ninth by opponent-and-situation-adjusted metric DVOA due to below-average blocking.
The Steelers’ offensive line charges as one of many worst run-blocking models within the league by most superior metrics. That will change with time, however the reality is Pittsburgh doesn’t boast nice expertise round beginning middle Zach Frazier. Search for the Patriots to manage the inside of the road by defensive tackles Milton Williams and Christian Barmore, which leaves solely questions on the sting and on the second stage the place Robert Spillane (eight missed tackles) and Christian Elliss (six) should wrap up.
“We’ll must deal with a lot better,” Vrabel mentioned Wednesday. “That’ll be a vital a part of this sport plan.”
When the Steelers move
Whether or not or not Christian Gonzalez fits up Sunday, D.Ok. Metcalf must be the focus of the Pats’ protection plan.
He’s the Steelers’ clear-cut No. 1 receiver, a menace at 6-foot-4 and 229 kilos with breakaway velocity and two Professional Bowls to his resume. Metcalf additionally leads Pittsburgh with 13 targets, although Rodgers has unfold the ball round. The Steelers’ subsequent high targets are the small and speedy Calvin Austin III (5 catches, 92 yards), tight finish Jonnu Smith (9 catches, 42 yards), Gainwell (six catches, 20 yards) and Massachusetts native Pat Freiermuth, a trusted tight finish.
Greater than most groups, Pittsburgh likes to function from two-tight finish personnel, fielding Smith and Freiermuth collectively or one in every of them with the large Darnell Washington. That must drive the Patriots into loads of base protection with simply 4 defensive backs, which can put stress on gamers like Spillane, Elliss and safeties Jaylinn Hawkins and Craig Woodson to cowl 1-on-1.
Nonetheless the Steelers line up, search for the Pats to drive Rodgers to carry on to the ball. By two weeks, he’s graded out as one of many NFL’s worst quarterbacks on throws that take longer than 2.5 seconds from snap to throw. He’s accomplished simply 48.4% of his passes for 245 yards, two touchdowns and two picks round seven sacks taken, per PFF.
Recreation decide
Patriots 24, Steelers 23
