Time to Buc-le up.
The Patriots have taken their six-game win streak south, the place they are going to be underdogs for the primary time in additional than a month at Tampa Bay. Coming off their bye week, the Buccaneers are well-rested and monitoring for an additional playoff berth at 6-2. Whereas Baker Mayfield has cooled since his early-season MVP marketing campaign, Bucs rookie Emeka Egbuka is among the many most explosive receivers in soccer, and Tampa Bay’s protection ranks among the many NFL’s greatest in opposition to the run and move.
Can Drake Maye preserve his personal MVP hopes alive on the highway in opposition to the blitz-happy Bucs? And what should Mike Vrabel’s protection do to decelerate Mayfield?
Right here’s what to observe for Sunday:
When the Patriots run
It’s on you, child.
Rookie working again TreVeyon Henderson is slated to make his second straight begin, with Rhamondre Stevenson nonetheless sidelined by a toe harm. Final weekend, Henderson rushed for 55 yards and caught 4 passes for 32 yards because the Patriots’ lead again, whereas Terrell Jennings served as his backup. Henderson broke 5 tackles and ripped off his greatest runs on the skin, the place he’s been best all season.
Nevertheless, Henderson ought to anticipate powerful sledding Sunday. The Buccaneers area a top-5 run protection by just about each metric. Opponents have had just about no luck choosing up small, regular good points or explosive performs, thanks largely to 340-pound Professional Bowl defensive deal with Vita Vea and one-time All-Professional linebacker Lavonte David.
Anticipate the Patriots to attempt to keep away from Vea on the bottom, and probably go no-huddle to tire him out as they did of their final matchup 4 years in the past.
When the Patriots move
Maye has been cash in opposition to the blitz all season. However Tampa’s blitz is a special beast.
Fifteen Buccaneers have recorded at the least a half-sack in simply eight video games, executing coach Tood Bowles’ unique stress packages that ship further rushers on roughly 33% of opponents’ passing performs. Anticipate Bowles to isolate Vea in opposition to left guard Jared Wilson to create a mismatch, and assault Henderson in blitz pickup after the rookie allowed three pressures final weekend. This week, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels got here to Henderson’s protection, but additionally mentioned making ready for this protection means anticipating the sudden based mostly on his earlier battles with Bowles when Bowles coached the Jets.
“There’s a problem to the way in which you enter the sport, after which impulsively, the sport takes on a special actuality,” McDaniels mentioned. “I imply, there’s been video games the place (Bowles) blitzed us endlessly, after which there’s been different video games the place it’s been somewhat bit extra tempered, however there’s at all times a purpose for it, which, like I mentioned, I’ve been so impressed with.”
Assuming Maye has time, DeMario Douglas and Stefon Diggs could possibly be primed for large video games in opposition to a move protection that ranks bottom-10 at defending the center of the sphere by DVOA. Douglas ought to at the least see extra snaps with Kayshon Boutte sidelined by a hamstring harm. That additionally goes for quick rookie Kyle Williams, who has simply two catches in 9 video games this season.
However don’t anticipate many deep photographs to the left, the place veteran Bucs nook Jamel Dean usually locks down his facet of the sphere. Reverse Dean, nook Zyon McCollum will make for a better goal.
When the Buccaneers run
Can they preserve the streak alive?
Via 9 video games, the Pats have but to permit any participant to hurry for 50 yards, an NFL file courting again to 1950. This week, the Patriots caught a break with high Tampa working again Bucky Irving dominated out over shoulder and toe accidents. That leaves Rachaad White to select up the slack.
White has rushed for 287 yards and 4 touchdowns at a 3.7 yards-per-carry clip this season. He and Irving have been held again at instances by a poor run-blocking offensive line that’s additionally coping with accidents at a number of positions. Not like previous weeks, once they bulked up with heavier personnel to cease opponents’ run video games, search for the Patriots to attempt to restrict White with lighter packages that may additionally shield them in opposition to the deep move.
And in vital conditions, keep watch over the Bucs working behind stud left deal with Tristan Wirfs, who is much and away their greatest offensive lineman.
When the Buccaneers move
Christian Gonzalez, meet Emeka Egbuka.
The stud rookie receiver leads Tampa Bay in all main receiving classes with 34 catches for 562 yards and 5 touchdowns. He’s confirmed to be a wonderful insurance coverage coverage in opposition to latest accidents to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, who’re each out Sunday. Egbuka has accomplished most of his harm out broad this season, but additionally aligns within the slot. Wherever he’s, Gonzalez ought to shadow him.
Outdoors of Egbuka, the Bucs are low on threatening pass-catchers. Tight finish Cade Otton is a strong participant who could possibly be a red-zone goal. Mayfield additionally may choose to throw to White, particularly for the reason that Patriots have struggled at instances to include working backs within the passing sport and Mayfield might want speedy retailers in opposition to the blitz.
If the Pats blitz Mayfield — who has struggled in opposition to further rushers this season — that may depart them weak deep if Egbuka breaks free. Ideally, defensive tackles Christian Barmore and Milton Williams can create havoc in opposition to a mushy inside offensive line, although Barmore is coming off a sport the place he completed with zero pressures.
Recreation decide
Buccaneers 27, Patriots 24
