After two convincing wins in Toronto, the Purple Sox enter play on Thursday with an 87-71 document and have a Magic Number of 1. Whereas it could seem to be we’re tempting destiny to stay up for potential playoff opponents subsequent week, that’s what we’re going to do in the present day.
The highest seven groups within the American League are separated by a complete of six video games. There won’t even be a 95-win staff this yr within the AL. The upside of getting condensed standings on this facet of the bracket is that really any staff has a shot to make it to the World Collection. The draw back is that not a single staff is even near being locked into a particular seed, and guessing what the matchups will seem like beginning on Tuesday, September 30 is pointless. Which is, once more, precisely what we’re going to do in the present day.
For the sake of chances, which we learned this week are fake, let’s rule out a few issues. The Purple Sox in all probability aren’t going to win the division, needing to go two groups which might be three video games forward, in Toronto and the Yankees. That nearly actually guidelines out the Astros as an opponent within the Wild Card sequence. Let’s additionally rule out the Mariners falling out of a bye, as in addition they have a three-game cushion from doing so.
That would depart 4 opponents who’re almost definitely to be the Purple Sox opponents within the AL Wild Card sequence:
Toronto Blue Jays – 90-68
New York Yankees – 90-68
Cleveland Guardians – 86-72
If the Purple Sox can not catch both the Yankees or the Blue Jays within the closing 4 days, then they’ll land on the 5 or the six seed, and all three video games would happen away from Fenway, which, on the floor, is a drawback. Nonetheless, within the three years that this format has been in use (2022-2024), the street staff has gone 8-4 within the Wild Card sequence. 5-seeds have gained 4 of the six sequence, and six-seeds have gained 4 of the six sequence. A lot for “successful your division is an important factor”, which was confused by Main League Baseball for the last decade previous to 2022. The brand new mantra is, “successful your division means you’ll in all probability lose to a staff that wasn’t allowed into the playoffs till 2021.”
A pattern that’s simply as unusual is that of these 12 sequence, solely two went to a decisive third sport – Padres-Mets in 2022 and Mets-Brewers in 2024. In 2023, all 4 sequence have been two-game sweeps, resulting in probably the most disappointing Thursday within the historical past of baseball.
If the Purple Sox (87-71) land on the five-seed (their present spot), they might play the second-place staff within the AL East, both the Blue Jays or the Yankees, who would find yourself with the four-seed.
If the Purple Sox landed on the six-seed, they might play the AL Central division winner, both the Guardians or the Tigers.
So who do we wish the Sox to play? Let’s dive in and rank them from “oh no not them” to “convey it on.”
4. Cleveland Guardians (Head-to-Head: BOS 4-2)
I wrote a chunk final week titled “The Guardians want your playoff spot.” The phrase “your” was in reference to the Purple Sox on the time, however over the previous week, it has utilized to all people. They need the Astros’ spot, the Tigers’ spot, and probably the World Collection. Who of their proper thoughts desires to play this staff proper now? On August 26, Cleveland was 64-66, 12.5 video games behind the Tigers for first, and two video games behind the Royals for second within the division. Cleveland is now 86-72 and a sport up within the division, which has regarded like this since 8/26:
This all got here after two of their pitchers have been allegedly betting on their very own video games, earlier than the staff bought on the commerce deadline. They’ve a unfavourable run differential on the season! I did my best to attempt to clarify it, however I additionally need nothing to do with it subsequent week.
3. New York Yankees (Head-to-Head: BOS 9-4)
The Yankees’ offense leads all of baseball in quite a few classes, together with runs scored (827), dwelling runs (266), and OPS (.784). They’ve the co-favorite for MVP, in Aaron Decide, with 51 HR and a 1.136 OPS and an ace pitcher in Max Fried, who has been value each greenback of the contract he signed within the offseason, successful his nineteenth sport on Wednesday night time with a sub-3 ERA. Jazz Chisholm has gone 30/30, Trent Grisham has 34 bombs out of the leadoff spot, and Cody Bellinger is approaching a 5-WAR season.
Nonetheless, the bullpen that they loaded up on on the commerce deadline has been an enormous disappointment. Devin Williams, for whom the Yankees gave up loads within the offseason, was faraway from the nearer’s function round mid-season and has a 5.03 ERA in 64 appearances this yr. Camilo Doval, traded from San Francisco, has a 5.09 ERA in 21 appearances with New York. David Bednar has stabilized issues a bit as the brand new nearer and now has a 2.49 ERA, however is 8-for-11 in save alternatives with New York and was so shaky earlier this season that he was demoted to Triple-A in April by the Pirates.
The basics on protection and on the bases will not be there on a nightly foundation, which has been on show in most video games towards the Purple Sox this season, who they’ve solely gained 4 out of 13 video games towards.
2. Detroit Tigers (Head-to-Head: DET 3-0 with 3 video games remaining)
How do you take a look at the listing of current video games and never put this staff as probably the most fascinating opponent in spherical one?
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As a result of they’ve arguably the very best pitcher on the planet on their staff in a brief sequence. Tarik Skubal is the reigning Cy Younger Award winner and is taken into account a heavy favourite for this yr as properly. His 2.39 ERA for the reason that begin of 2023 is surpassed by his 2.37 ERA within the playoffs, which he compiled over three begins in 2024. Skubal has regarded a bit extra human of late, permitting three runs or extra in seven begins over the second half of the season. There’s additionally an opportunity that he’s wanted in Recreation 162 simply to get into the playoffs, but when they want the ultimate sport to seize the 6-seed then they might not be matched up towards the Purple Sox.
The rotation behind Skubal is subpar, with Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize sporting a 4.64 and three.91 ERA, respectively. The bats have a .247 staff common, sixteenth in MLB, and are led by Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson, who’ve every surpassed 30 dwelling runs on the season, and Gleyber Torres who has delivered with a 3-WAR efficiency in a one-year contract with Detroit.
1. Toronto Blue Jays (Head-to-Head: TOR 7-5 with 1 sport remaining)
The Blue Jays simply appear to be limping to the end line. They’ve misplaced six of their final seven video games at a time the place they might be placing the ending touches on the one-seed within the American League and taking a number of days off to get wholesome throughout the bye. The staff hopes to have Bo Bichette and Chris Bassitt again for the playoffs, and have shifted Jose Berrios to an extended aid function whereas calling up first-round 2024 draft choose Trey Yesavage.
Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber are a formidable 1-2 punch, Vlad Guerrero Jr. will at all times pose a menace, and remains to be by some means simply 26 years outdated. George Springer is having an unimaginable resurgence with a .304 batting common, 30 dwelling runs, and 101 runs scored from the leadoff spot, and sporting a 4.8 fWAR that leads the staff. If Bichette comes again from his sprained knee, the staff may get the spark it wants, however proper now, they appear like a staff to focus on.
The final time that the Purple Sox have been within the playoffs they confronted the Yankees within the one-game wild card format in 2021. Regardless of all the pieces that I wrote above, I’ll take a Purple Sox vs. Yankees sequence each single time due to the pure leisure issue. However on enemy soil, it gained’t be straightforward, and it’s in all probability not the popular path. Take pleasure in the previous few days of the common season earlier than the chaos arrives.
