Throughout this previous week’s run of press feedback from members of the Pink Sox group at Fenway South (together with Sam Kennedy, I’m sure you know what I’m talking about), catcher Carlos Narváez obtained some glowing opinions.
Supervisor Alex Cora famous that Narv/Narvi/The Narv did an awesome job exceeding expectations in 2025, per Gabrielle Starr the Boston Herald, whereas being “banged up” all the time. Pink Sox Corridor of Famer and present workforce employees member Jason Varitek recommended him for his preparation and mindset within the clubhouse. Cora himself ordained him because the workforce’s beginning backstop, a name that was all however official main as much as Spring Coaching.
These are all good issues for a man who was principally an afterthought when he was traded from the Yankees to Boston in December 2024. In any case, he was acquired by the Sox on the identical day that ace Garrett Crochet was. Just a little over a 12 months later and Narváez is beginning his 2026 season within the good graces of these round JetBlue Park.
That Herald article did have one different level that I really feel warrants additional dialogue, although: the concept of a contract extension for the 27-year-old Narváez.
“The one factor I’ll say is I’d like to be a Pink Sox without end. I want to retire with this workforce. We haven’t talked about it, hopefully that may come sooner or later.
That’s one thing that I’m not taking note of proper now. After all, I’d adore it, however we’ve obtained totally different objectives this 12 months, and I believe this 12 months goes to be crucial for us, for everyone.
We obtained our purpose set. Like, particular person issues, private issues that may come sooner or later, and naturally I’m very happy and welcome if that occurs, however as of now, our purpose is to get a World Sequence ring this 12 months.”
Maybe that extension subject gained’t rear its head for just a few extra seasons. Carlos has solely performed in 124 main league video games (118 of which got here in 2025), he’s coming off a cleanup knee surgery this winter (one that he reportedly, according to MassLive put off until the conclusion of the previous season), and he’s nonetheless beneath pre-arbitration management.
However possibly now’s the time to not less than begin fascinated about it, even when it’s only a enjoyable thought train. Hell, I’ve obtained nothing higher to do on this vacation.
From a 30,000 foot view, Narváez was rated because the Twelfth-most precious catcher in 2025 according to fWAR (2.7) out of backstops who had not less than 400 plate appearances. A lot of that worth on the place league-wide was pushed by offensive output, although, and Narv’s bang-on common OPS+ of 100 was by no means going to set himself aside in that division. We’ve seen some encouraging indicators of energy at occasions from Carlos from the right-hand facet of the dish (one thing we very nicely would possibly want to enhance heading into the brand new 12 months), however there will be some large time holes in his swing as demonstrated by his 27.7% whiff charge and 24.9% strikeout charge (each under the thirtieth percentile mark final season, according to Savant).
Nonetheless, his Def rating on FanGraphs (which is simply the mixed complete of his fielding runs above common and positional adjustment) of 14.2 put him because the sixth-most precious defensive catcher within the sport. Savant’s metrics verify these defensive expertise, as his fielding run worth of 12 was good for the 96th percentile throughout MLB in 2025. Blocks, arm expertise to catch runners stealing, framing (which will not be as precious of a ability going ahead as a result of introduction of the ABS problem system, however one thing that may nonetheless be helpful in some style nonetheless), pop time, you title it: Narv was in elite firm.
WAR might not be capable to all the time inform the complete story of a participant, but it surely not less than provides us a great benchmark. For perspective, catchers that Narváez was inside one fWAR of final season—someway—embrace Milwaukee’s William Contreras (3.6), the Giants’ defensive wiz Patrick Bailey (3.4), rookie of the 12 months Drake Baldwin of Atlanta (3.2), Austin Wells of the Yankees (3.0), the Cubs’ Carson Kelly (2.6), Philly’s J.T. Realmuto (2.1), and Ryan Jeffers of Minnesota (2.1).
With that in thoughts, we will pop over to Spotrac’s catcher contract breakdown. Three of these names I simply talked about—Contreras, Jeffers, Kelly—have common annual values between $9.4 million and $5.75 million. A reasonably comparable participant inside Boston’s division is Alejandro Kirk of Toronto, who inked a five-year extension with the Blue Jays final 12 months price $58 million ($11.8 million AAV) by way of 2030. Kirk is great defender behind the plate with a profession OPS simply south of .750 and a profession OPS+ of 108. Possibly he doesn’t get there on offense the identical approach Carlos would—Kirk’s 15 house runs final 12 months was a profession excessive after solely eclipsing double-digit dongs one different time beforehand, whereas Narváez had 15 homers in his first full MLB season—however the similarities are there.
- Narváez is the equal of “Now we have Alejandro Kirk at house,”
- He’s nonetheless in his 20’s with pre-arbitration years nonetheless in play, and
- Catchers of comparable caliber are making someplace across the mid-to-high seven-figure vary every season…
…what kind of deal would possibly make sense for him?
One thing across the traces of 5 years, $45 million feels about honest to me in a vacuum proper now. Pink Sox Payroll on Twitter—a wonderful useful resource, by the best way—mentioned a deal beginning in 2027 price $50 million over six years with a membership choice, based mostly on pre-arb extensions for catchers elsewhere, might be price consideration. I believe that’s a good estimation too; tack on an additional 12 months to decrease the AAV, that’s wise.
Nonetheless, would both of these bids even make sense to supply at this cut-off date? The Pink Sox entrance workplace definitely must be contemplating the knee situation final season, proper? Would an AAV of $8-9 million be price consuming into the arbitration years of a catcher? Do you let Narv play out 2026 after which come again to the desk to barter a long-term deal? He’ll be nearer to 30 years of age than 25 by the conclusion of this season; do you simply let the arbitration years play out if he doesn’t take a step ahead? If he does take a step ahead on offense, are you gonna must shell out much more cash—Alejandro Kirk cash, or much more given the character of how the AAV line is all the time going to climb for expertise—at this level subsequent 12 months if you wish to preserve him within the image going ahead?
Aggressive stability taxes ought to by no means deter a franchise of this stature from making the strikes they’ve obtained to make to remain aggressive, and the contracts of Masataka Yoshida and Trevor Story will (most likely) be coming off of the books over the subsequent few years, however that’s one other issue to think about when having this dialogue.
On the finish of the day, I assume I don’t count on an extension to be supplied to Narváez within the close to future. For readability, let’s simply name it the 2026 season; I don’t count on a long-term deal previous to the tip of the World Sequence this upcoming fall. However Mr. Breslow does transfer in silence, so who am I to say for certain?
For now, I hope Narv is ready to sustain that defensive presence whereas enhancing on offense. If he can do this, I’d be very happy to entertain an eight-figure AAV extension for him—as a result of that might imply he’d be a large a part of Boston’s success in 2026.
