Welcome again to the 2025-26 version of Smash or Pass, by which we look at potential free agent and commerce targets to find out whether or not the Crimson Sox ought to pursue them and what it could take to land them. Subsequent up, a future star who was not too long ago posted by NPB.
Who’s he and the place does he come from?
Munetaka Murakami is a left-handed hitting 25-year-old who has been taking part in in Japan’s NPB—and completely tearing it up offensively—since he was a teen. Just lately posted by the Tokyo Yakult Swallows, he’s about to turn into an enormous leaguer in MLB. He has till December 22 at 5 p.m. ET to move a bodily and signal on the dotted line.
He performed third base in Japan and spent a little bit of time at first base too. Forgive me for treating that like an afterthought however protection isn’t his calling card. He may technically play at both or each corners, however he’s higher suited to first base than third, and truthfully, he actually must be a full-time DH.
Murakami broke the NPB single-season home-run document for a Japanese-born participant. He’s gained two back-to-back Central League MVP awards in Japan and helped his workforce win a Japan Sequence title. He was a star for Japan within the World Baseball Basic in 2023, clobbering a walk-off double, then hitting a second-deck residence run with an exit velo of 115 mph within the championship sport, on the way in which to defeating the US.
One offseason rating named Murakami the seventh-best free agent this yr, and groups are salivating over what his ceiling may be.
Offensively, he’s been in comparison with Shohei Ohtani—and never just because they’re each from Japan. They’d very similar profiles on the daybreak of their respective MLB careers.
To take a look at it by way of one other lens, he is called Murakami-sama in Japan. Followers name him that as a result of solely a kami-sama, a god, may do what he does on the plate. And that nickname was Japan’s Word of the Year in 2022 which is without doubt one of the coolest accolades you may ever obtain. Even Taylor Swift has by no means accomplished that, to my data.
Let’s drill right down to some numbers.
He completed within the top five in homers in NPB in 2025, though he performed solely one-third of the video games (on account of harm).
His max exit velocity in 2025 was 116.5 mph—more durable than all however 23 MLB sluggers. That elite listing consists of a number of 2025 House Run Derby individuals, in addition to Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani.
TL;DR, simply give me his 2025 stats
In 56 video games Murakami’s slash line was .273/.379/.663, to go together with 22 residence runs and 47 RBI. He’s no speedster however not a slouch on the bases both; he additionally stole 4 bases.
Why would he be a great match for the Red Sox?
He has a sky-high ceiling as an influence hitter. He’s younger and thrilling. Third base is open proper now, and first base is unsure. And it certain can be good to gobble up all the most effective gamers, Dodgers-style.
Why wouldn’t he be a great match on the Crimson Sox?
Even with all of the potential he has, Murakami is thought to wrestle with excessive velocity, and with secondary pitches. The transition to MLB will exacerbate these weaknesses, since Murakami will face higher pitchers and be uncovered to extra pace and extra secondary pitches than he’s seen earlier than.
He additionally strikes out rather a lot (not a shock, with all these residence runs), and his price has been growing over the previous three seasons. In 2025 in Japan, his whiff price was 36.7%, and strikeout price was 28.6%. That’s excessive for NPB, and would measure among the highest in MLB too. As mentioned, Japanese hitters are likely to lose somewhat of their shine after they face more durable MLB pitching, so you possibly can depend on his strikeout numbers going up, and on his contact price happening.
The factor about his contact price, although: it’s already gone down, steadily, over the previous a number of seasons. In 2025, his contact price on pitches within the zone was 72.6%, which was last among qualified hitters in NPB. The MLB common is 82.5%. That’s the typical, however even energy hitters who strike out rather a lot have contact charges above 75%. For comparability, in 2025, Ohtani’s was 78.6%, Aaron Decide’s was 79.6%, and Cal Raleigh’s was 81.3% (take that, Decide). Once more, we’ll anticipate Murakami’s price to fall nonetheless additional as soon as he enters MLB and faces more durable pitching than he’s competed towards earlier than.
His protection is a matter, with -92 DRS at third base in 696 video games, and -25 DRS at first base in 263 video games. Can the Sox afford that?
Though the nook positions are actually in flux in the intervening time for the Sox, we nonetheless have a primary baseman in Triston Casas. Extra importantly, the Crimson Sox declare they’ve entered a brand new period, the place protection will turn into a precedence (thank god). If that is true, Murakami isn’t our man as a result of his sport is as a hitter, interval. We’ve been down this highway with Rafael Devers, and nonetheless have DH-only Masataka Yoshida on the roster, in addition to numerous others who would possibly slot out and in at DH day by day.
What wouldn’t it take to get him?
Some projections say 5-6 years at $17-20M per yr; some go fairly a bit decrease due to the unknowns of transferring to MLB, in addition to the lower in manufacturing, and maybe his latest harm too (he missed fairly a little bit of the 2025 season with an indirect harm). Some suppose that Murakami will beat any projection on the market as a result of latest historical past says that’s what occurs whenever you’re a extremely gifted younger slugger on the free agent market.
It doesn’t matter what, the fortunate winner should pay the Swallows a posting charge of $9.275M, plus 15% of any contract quantity over $50M. For instance, the hypothetical six-year $140M contract predicted by CBS Sports would convey a $22.775M posting charge on high of that.
Right here’s his residence run into the higher deck within the remaining sport of the World Baseball Basic in 2023. Towering.
All accounts say Murakami-sama is a particularly aggressive man, so I’ll assume that he’s actually motivated to work on bettering his contact price, lowering strikeouts, and adapting rapidly to MLB pitching. I’ll maintain assuming and say that he’ll reach doing that, which may make him a really particular hitter. My argument isn’t along with his offensive potential.
I’m going to Go as a result of, to me, signing Murakami would really feel like taking a step backwards for the Sox. Now that the Crimson Sox have pledged to work on defensive fundamentals all through the group, this isn’t the time to make an enormous dedication to a poor fielder. And the reality i that, I don’t belief Alex Cora or different powers-that-be to chorus from tinkering with no matter positional flexibility would possibly exist right here. I can simply think about transferring Murakami round: each corners, out and in of DH, and god assist me, he’s obtained one sport beneath his belt within the outfield, perhaps AC desires to run him on the market whereas Ceddanne Rafaela performs second base due to matchups. No thanks! We obtained a style of some fairly candy infield protection in 2025 (whereas Ceddanne solidified his fame in middle) and it was superb. Decide to the bit and see issues by way of on protection now.
